Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Sandefjord travel to Aspmyra Stadion to take on Bodo/Glimt. The game is scheduled for Sunday 30 May 2021, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Bodo/Glimt have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.50 PPG return. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 3.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bodo/Glimt have posted 10W 0D 0L at Aspmyra Stadion — 3.00 PPG. They are averaging 4.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Aspmyra Stadion. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.50 — Bodo/Glimt are significantly better at Aspmyra Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sandefjord stand at 2W 6D 2L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Sandefjord have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.30 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.50 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Trading Patterns
Bodo/Glimt in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 87% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 67%.
Sandefjord in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bodo/Glimt 70% versus Sandefjord 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bodo/Glimt 90% | Sandefjord 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 1.95 xG and Sandefjord 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.458 / defence 0.813 | Sandefjord attack 1.133 / defence 0.909. League average goals — home 1.469 / away 1.298. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack strength of 1.458 — their λ of 1.95 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 35 Bodo/Glimt games / 33 Sandefjord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 53% | Draw 25% | Sandefjord 22%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Sandefjord 4.55. Bodo/Glimt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.95 / 1.20) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bodo/Glimt at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bodo/Glimt offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.14 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Bodo/Glimt 50% | Sandefjord 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 30 May 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 53% | Draw 25% | Sandefjord 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 61% | xG Bodo/Glimt 1.95 / Sandefjord 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.458 / def 0.813 | Sandefjord attack 1.133 / def 0.909 | league avg home 1.469 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Sandefjord xG
61%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 30 May 2021 at Aspmyra Stadion.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 53% chance of winning, Sandefjord a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and Sandefjord will score (BTTS).
Will Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Sandefjord?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Sandefjord in?
Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 3.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Sandefjord (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bodo/Glimt's attack at 1.46x the league average against Sandefjord's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.95 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sandefjord's attack versus Bodo/Glimt's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
53%
1.87
25%
4.00
22%
4.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
3.14
1.20
Sandefjord xG
1.87
53%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
4.62
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
14%
7.01
Win to Nil
16%
6.19
3%
32.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 10.0 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and Sandefjord expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 1.20 for Sandefjord, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bodo/Glimt come into this having played 30 games, going 26W 3D 1L for 2.70 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W.
On the other side, Sandefjord sit at 1.17 PPG from 30 outings (9W 8D 13L), a run that reads W-D-D-D-D across their last five.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.53 PPG clear of Sandefjord — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bodo/Glimt's home form reads 15W 0D 0L across 15 games on their own ground, a 3.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Sandefjord have taken 1.27 points per game from 15 outings (6W 1D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 3.43 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Sandefjord are on 1.03 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bodo/Glimt have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Current Season
Sandefjord
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Sandefjord in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 26W 3D 1L in their last 30 games (2.70 PPG), while Sandefjord have gone 9W 8D 13L in their last 30 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodo/Glimt at home or Sandefjord away?
Bodo/Glimt's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodo/Glimt at home: 3.00 PPG; Sandefjord away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Bodo/Glimt or Sandefjord been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Sandefjord in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bodo/Glimt and Sandefjord runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bodo/Glimt have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Oct 2022, when Bodo/Glimt won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bodo/Glimt's record when hosting Sandefjord specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Bodo/Glimt
1
Draws
1
Sandefjord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Sandefjord?
From 10 meetings on record, Bodo/Glimt have won 8, Sandefjord have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and Sandefjord last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Sandefjord 0-3 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and Sandefjord?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 87% of the time.
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bodo/Glimt 60%, Sandefjord 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 87% for Bodo/Glimt and 53% for Sandefjord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Sandefjord in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / Sandefjord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bodo/Glimt play Sandefjord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Bodo/Glimt's games and 53% of Sandefjord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 87% of Bodo/Glimt's matches and 53% of Sandefjord's.
Do Bodo/Glimt and Sandefjord tend to score early?
Bodo/Glimt have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Sandefjord in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bodo/Glimt's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 10, as Bodo/Glimt and Sandefjord drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 1.95 xG and Sandefjord 1.20 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bodo/Glimt fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Sandefjord landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.46 / defence 0.81 against Sandefjord attack 1.13 / defence 0.91, drawn from 35/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 53% | Draw 25% | Sandefjord 22%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodo/Glimt 90%, Sandefjord 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sandefjord's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.70 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 3.93 scoring average — below par going forward. Sandefjord (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.