Bodo/Glimt 1-0 Fredrikstad – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bodo/Glimt (79%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Bodo/Glimt face Fredrikstad.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bodo/Glimt and Fredrikstad meet at Aspmyra Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Friday 17 July 2026 at 17:15 UTC.
Current Odds
The market has installed Bodo/Glimt as the clear favourite — Bodo/Glimt 1.15 (implied 81%), Draw 7.73 (12%), Fredrikstad 13.62 (implied 7%).
Form
Bodo/Glimt (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Aspmyra Stadion, Bodo/Glimt have gone 9W 0D 1L this season (10 games, 2.70 PPG). They are averaging 3.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Aspmyra Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Fredrikstad's overall Eliteserien record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Fredrikstad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fredrikstad away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Bodo/Glimt's 2.30 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Fredrikstad's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Bodo/Glimt have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins from 4 meetings, with Fredrikstad managing just 0 victories and 1 draws shared.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2025, ended 5–0 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Bodo/Glimt and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Bodo/Glimt — key trading statistics (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Fredrikstad — key trading statistics (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bodo/Glimt 50% versus Fredrikstad 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bodo/Glimt 71% | Fredrikstad 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 2.83 xG and Fredrikstad 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.358 / defence 0.751 | Fredrikstad attack 0.942 / defence 1.139. League average goals — home 1.826 / away 1.161. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack strength of 1.358 — their λ of 2.83 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Bodo/Glimt's defence rating of 0.751 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 42 Bodo/Glimt games / 42 Fredrikstad games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 79% | Draw 13% | Fredrikstad 8%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.27 | Draw 7.69 | Fredrikstad 12.50. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (79%) — a 71pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.65. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.65 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt as the most likely outcome at 79% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The model's read is broadly in line with the market at 1.15 (fair-implied 81% vs Poisson 79%).
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.65 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting. The market (1.28, fair-implied 73%) is broadly in line with the Poisson probability.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. This conflicts with form data: Bodo/Glimt 30% | Fredrikstad 40% from recent games — a notable divergence. Market pricing (1.81, fair-implied 51%) is broadly in line with the Poisson read on BTTS.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Fredrikstad | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 17 Jul 2026, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 79% | Draw 13% | Fredrikstad 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 53% | xG Bodo/Glimt 2.83 / Fredrikstad 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.358 / def 0.751 | Fredrikstad attack 0.942 / def 1.139 | league avg home 1.826 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (79%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• 1X2 market: Bodo/Glimt 1.15 (impl 81%) | Draw 7.73 (impl 12%) | Fredrikstad 13.62 (impl 7%) • Market favourite: Bodo/Glimt at 1.15 • Poisson vs market alignment: both point to Bodo/Glimt — Poisson 79% vs market implied 81% — tight pricing suggests an efficient market; no meaningful edge detected • Goals market: Over 2.5 1.28 (impl 78%) / Under 2.5 3.39 (impl 29%) | Poisson Over 2.5 probability 71% • BTTS market: BTTS Yes 1.81 (impl 55%) / No 1.90 (impl 53%) | Poisson BTTS probability 53%
🧮 Prediction Model
2.83
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Fredrikstad xG
53%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs Fredrikstad kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs Fredrikstad kicked off at 17:15 on Friday 17 July 2026 at Aspmyra Stadion.
What was the final score in Bodo/Glimt vs Fredrikstad?
Bodo/Glimt 1 - 0 Fredrikstad.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs Fredrikstad being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs Fredrikstad part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs Fredrikstad is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs Fredrikstad?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 79% chance of winning, Fredrikstad a 8% chance, and a 13% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Fredrikstad?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and Fredrikstad will score (BTTS).
Will Bodo/Glimt vs Fredrikstad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Fredrikstad?
Record (4 meetings): Bodo/Glimt 3W | Draws 1 | Fredrikstad 0W.
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Fredrikstad in?
Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Fredrikstad (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Bodo/Glimt vs Fredrikstad?
1X2 market: Bodo/Glimt 1.15 (impl 81%) | Draw 7.73 (impl 12%) | Fredrikstad 13.62 (impl 7%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Bodo/Glimt's attacking strength (1.36x league average) is weighed against Fredrikstad's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.83. Flip it around — Fredrikstad's attack (0.94x) against Bodo/Glimt's defence (0.75x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.4%. Close behind: 3-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
79%
1.27
13%
7.56
8%
12.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.83
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
3.65
0.82
Fredrikstad xG
1.27
79%
Home win
7.56
13%
Draw
12.33
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
6%
16.86
Win to Nil
35%
2.89
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 7.4 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 10.4 | 8.6 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.8 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 6.9 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs Fredrikstad?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and Fredrikstad expected to score?
The model projects 2.83 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 0.82 for Fredrikstad, a combined total of 3.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs Fredrikstad?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 79%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bodo/Glimt come into this having played 42 games, going 30W 6D 6L for 2.29 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-W. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fredrikstad sit at 1.33 PPG from 42 outings (15W 11D 16L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Fredrikstad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.96 PPG clear of Fredrikstad — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Bodo/Glimt's home form reads 16W 1D 3L across 20 games on their own ground, a 2.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Fredrikstad have taken 1.05 points per game from 20 outings (5W 6D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 2.74 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Fredrikstad are on 1.26 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Defensively: Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
Fredrikstad
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Fredrikstad in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 30W 6D 6L in their last 42 games (2.29 PPG), while Fredrikstad have gone 15W 11D 16L in their last 42 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodo/Glimt at home or Fredrikstad away?
Bodo/Glimt's home record (2.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodo/Glimt at home: 2.45 PPG; Fredrikstad away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Bodo/Glimt or Fredrikstad been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Fredrikstad in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 17 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Bodo/Glimt have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bodo/Glimt won 5-0 on 30 Nov 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bodo/Glimt have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Fredrikstad — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
4
Bodo/Glimt
1
Draws
0
Fredrikstad
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Fredrikstad?
From 5 meetings on record, Bodo/Glimt have won 4, Fredrikstad have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and Fredrikstad last play each other?
They last met on 17 July 2026, when Bodo/Glimt 1-0 Fredrikstad.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and Fredrikstad?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Fredrikstad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bodo/Glimt 35%, Fredrikstad 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Bodo/Glimt and 50% for Fredrikstad. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Fredrikstad in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / Fredrikstad away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bodo/Glimt play Fredrikstad?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Bodo/Glimt's recent matches and 45% of Fredrikstad's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bodo/Glimt vs Fredrikstad usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Bodo/Glimt's matches and 50% of Fredrikstad's.
Do Bodo/Glimt and Fredrikstad tend to score early?
Bodo/Glimt have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Fredrikstad in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bodo/Glimt edge out Fredrikstad 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Fredrikstad 1-0 at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 2.83 xG and Fredrikstad 0.82 xG, a combined 3.65. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bodo/Glimt fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Fredrikstad landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.36 / defence 0.75 against Fredrikstad attack 0.94 / defence 1.14, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 79% | Draw 13% | Fredrikstad 8%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 79%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodo/Glimt 71%, Fredrikstad 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
Fredrikstad's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.30 scoring average — below par going forward. Fredrikstad (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.