Aalesund 1-2 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bodo/Glimt (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Aalesund face Bodo/Glimt.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Aalesund and Bodo/Glimt meet at Color Line Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 30 July 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Aalesund's overall Eliteserien record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D L W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Aalesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aalesund at Color Line Stadion this season: 3W 3D 1L from 7 home games — 1.71 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Bodo/Glimt have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bodo/Glimt's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, Bodo/Glimt are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Bodo/Glimt, who have claimed 3 wins from 3 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 26 Jun 2022, ended 0–2 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bodo/Glimt have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 5.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Aalesund — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Bodo/Glimt — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aalesund 47% versus Bodo/Glimt 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aalesund 47% | Bodo/Glimt 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aalesund 1.05 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aalesund attack 0.727 / defence 0.958 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.178 / defence 0.900. League average goals — home 1.611 / away 1.321. Aalesund's attack strength of 0.727 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 15 Aalesund games / 45 Bodo/Glimt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aalesund 27% | Draw 26% | Bodo/Glimt 47%. Fair-value odds: Aalesund 3.70 | Draw 3.85 | Bodo/Glimt 2.13. Bodo/Glimt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bodo/Glimt if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 5.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Aalesund 43% | Bodo/Glimt 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aalesund vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Color Line Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jul 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aalesund 27% | Draw 26% | Bodo/Glimt 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Aalesund 1.05 / Bodo/Glimt 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Aalesund attack 0.727 / def 0.958 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.178 / def 0.900 | league avg home 1.611 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Aalesund xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Bodo/Glimt xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aalesund vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Aalesund vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 30 July 2022 at Color Line Stadion.
What was the final score in Aalesund vs Bodo/Glimt?
Aalesund 1 - 2 Bodo/Glimt.
Where is Aalesund vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Color Line Stadion.
What competition is Aalesund vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Aalesund vs Bodo/Glimt is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Aalesund vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Aalesund a 27% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 47% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aalesund vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Aalesund and Bodo/Glimt will score (BTTS).
Will Aalesund vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aalesund and Bodo/Glimt?
Record (3 meetings): Aalesund 0W | Draws 0 | Bodo/Glimt 3W.
What form are Aalesund and Bodo/Glimt in?
Aalesund (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-D-D. Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Aalesund's attack at 0.73x the league average against Bodo/Glimt's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bodo/Glimt's attack (1.18x) against Aalesund's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from 15/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.1%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
27%
3.73
26%
3.85
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Aalesund xG
Total xG
2.54
1.49
Bodo/Glimt xG
3.73
27%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
23%
4.44
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
6%
16.54
16%
6.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 11.7 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.5 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aalesund vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Aalesund and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Aalesund and 1.49 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Aalesund vs Bodo/Glimt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 15 outings, Aalesund have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 5W 6D 4L record — D-L-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Aalesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bodo/Glimt's form line: 8W 4D 3L from 15 games, 1.87 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bodo/Glimt are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Aalesund.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Aalesund have posted 1.71 PPG from 7 outings (3W 3D 1L).
On the road, Bodo/Glimt have gone 4W 0D 3L from 7 away games — 1.71 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Aalesund are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 2.33 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bodo/Glimt in 67%.
Last 15 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aalesund
Blended
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aalesund and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
Aalesund have gone 5W 6D 4L in their last 15 games (1.40 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 8W 4D 3L in their last 15 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aalesund at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Aalesund's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aalesund at home: 1.71 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 1.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Bodo/Glimt have won the last 7 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bodo/Glimt won 7-0 on 8 Nov 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Aalesund have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Bodo/Glimt — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
0
Aalesund
0
Draws
7
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aalesund and Bodo/Glimt?
From 7 meetings on record, Aalesund have won 0, Bodo/Glimt have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Aalesund and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Bodo/Glimt 3-0 Aalesund.
Who has won more matches between Aalesund and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Aalesund see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aalesund 43%, Bodo/Glimt 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Aalesund) and 57% (Bodo/Glimt).
On the defensive side: Aalesund keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Aalesund have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aalesund home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aalesund play Bodo/Glimt?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Aalesund's recent matches and 57% of Bodo/Glimt's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Aalesund vs Bodo/Glimt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Aalesund's recent games and 57% of Bodo/Glimt's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Aalesund and Bodo/Glimt tend to score early?
Aalesund have had a goal before half-time in 43% of their recent matches, Bodo/Glimt in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bodo/Glimt edge out Aalesund 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Aalesund 1-2 at Color Line Stadion, Regular Season - 16, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aalesund 1.05 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.49 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aalesund attack 0.73 / defence 0.96 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.18 / defence 0.90, drawn from 15/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aalesund 27% | Draw 26% | Bodo/Glimt 47%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aalesund 47%, Bodo/Glimt 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aalesund's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.40. Form held, and they took the win. Aalesund (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.