Willem II 0-3 Sparta Rotterdam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Willem II at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Sparta Rotterdam travel to Koning Willem II Stadion to take on Willem II. The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 November 2021, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Willem II have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W L D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Willem II at Koning Willem II Stadion this season: 3W 1D 1L from 5 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sparta Rotterdam — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Rotterdam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sparta Rotterdam's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 4L across 5 road games this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Willem II carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Profile
Willem II in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Sparta Rotterdam in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Willem II 64% versus Sparta Rotterdam 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 64% | Sparta Rotterdam 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.34 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 0.800 / defence 1.145 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.561 / defence 1.207. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.345. Sparta Rotterdam bring a strong defensive rating of 1.207 — this is suppressing Willem II's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Willem II games / 11 Sparta Rotterdam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Willem II 48% | Draw 28% | Sparta Rotterdam 24%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 2.08 | Draw 3.57 | Sparta Rotterdam 4.17. Willem II hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Willem II are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Willem II offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Willem II 60% | Sparta Rotterdam 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 48% | Draw 28% | Sparta Rotterdam 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG Willem II 1.34 / Sparta Rotterdam 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 0.800 / def 1.145 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.561 / def 1.207 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.345 • Poisson stance: Willem II (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Sparta Rotterdam xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam kick off?
Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Willem II 0 - 3 Sparta Rotterdam.
Where is Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam part of?
Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 48% chance of winning, Sparta Rotterdam a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Willem II and Sparta Rotterdam will score (BTTS).
Will Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Sparta Rotterdam?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Willem II and Sparta Rotterdam in?
Willem II (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Willem II's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Sparta Rotterdam's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. The same calculation in reverse, Sparta Rotterdam's attack versus Willem II's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.1%), 0-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
48%
2.09
28%
3.57
24%
4.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Willem II xG
Total xG
2.21
0.86
Sparta Rotterdam xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
4.15
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
20%
4.95
6%
15.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 9.5 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.8 | 12.8 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.6 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Willem II and Sparta Rotterdam expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Willem II and 0.86 for Sparta Rotterdam, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Willem II come into this having played 11 games, going 5W 3D 3L for 1.64 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-L. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sparta Rotterdam sit at 0.64 PPG from 11 outings (1W 4D 6L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Sparta Rotterdam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Willem II carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Sparta Rotterdam — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Willem II's home form reads 3W 1D 1L across 5 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Sparta Rotterdam have taken 0.20 points per game from 5 outings (0W 1D 4L). That's a step down from their 0.64 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sparta Rotterdam's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Willem II come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Willem II are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Sparta Rotterdam are on 0.73 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Willem II have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 11 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Blended
Sparta Rotterdam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Willem II and Sparta Rotterdam in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 5W 3D 3L in their last 11 games (1.64 PPG), while Sparta Rotterdam have gone 1W 4D 6L in their last 11 (0.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or Sparta Rotterdam away?
Willem II's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 2.00 PPG; Sparta Rotterdam away: 0.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Sparta Rotterdam have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Mar 2025, when Sparta Rotterdam won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Willem II's record when hosting Sparta Rotterdam specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Willem II
0
Draws
4
Sparta Rotterdam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Sparta Rotterdam?
From 4 meetings on record, Willem II have won 0, Sparta Rotterdam have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and Sparta Rotterdam last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2025, when Sparta Rotterdam 4-0 Willem II.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and Sparta Rotterdam?
Sparta Rotterdam have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Willem II 60%, Sparta Rotterdam 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Willem II) and 40% (Sparta Rotterdam).
On the defensive side: Sparta Rotterdam in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / Sparta Rotterdam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Willem II play Sparta Rotterdam?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Willem II's recent matches and 40% of Sparta Rotterdam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Willem II's recent games and 40% of Sparta Rotterdam's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Willem II and Sparta Rotterdam tend to score early?
Willem II have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Sparta Rotterdam in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sparta Rotterdam run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Willem II.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Rotterdam beat Willem II 0-3 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.34 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 0.86 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Willem II fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Sparta Rotterdam outscored their 0.86 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.80 / defence 1.15 against Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.56 / defence 1.21, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 48% | Draw 28% | Sparta Rotterdam 24%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Sparta Rotterdam win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 64%, Sparta Rotterdam 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Willem II arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 0.64. Form was overturned, with Sparta Rotterdam winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Willem II (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.40 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.