Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Sparta Rotterdam at 51% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Sparta Rotterdam travel to Koning Willem II Stadion to take on Willem II. The game is scheduled for Sunday 14 February 2027, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Willem II have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Willem II have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Willem II at Koning Willem II Stadion this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Willem II are significantly better at Koning Willem II Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Sparta Rotterdam — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Sparta Rotterdam have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sparta Rotterdam's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Willem II) versus 0.60 (Sparta Rotterdam). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The previous 4 encounters between these sides heavily favour Sparta Rotterdam, who boast 4 victories compared to 0 for Willem II.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2025, ended 0–4 with Sparta Rotterdam winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Sparta Rotterdam have won 4 of 4 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Willem II in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Sparta Rotterdam in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Willem II 56% versus Sparta Rotterdam 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 56% | Sparta Rotterdam 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.25 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 1.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 0.639 / defence 1.188 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.876 / defence 1.179. League average goals — home 1.663 / away 1.831. Willem II's attack strength of 0.639 is below the league average — the 1.25 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 7 Willem II games / 41 Sparta Rotterdam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Willem II 24% | Draw 25% | Sparta Rotterdam 51%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 4.17 | Draw 4.00 | Sparta Rotterdam 1.96. Sparta Rotterdam hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.25 / 1.91) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sparta Rotterdam are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sparta Rotterdam offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.16 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Willem II 50% | Sparta Rotterdam 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 24% | Draw 25% | Sparta Rotterdam 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Willem II 1.25 / Sparta Rotterdam 1.91 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 0.639 / def 1.188 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.876 / def 1.179 | league avg home 1.663 / away 1.831 • Poisson stance: Sparta Rotterdam (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
1.91
Sparta Rotterdam xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam kick off?
Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 14 February 2027 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
Where is Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam part of?
Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 24% chance of winning, Sparta Rotterdam a 51% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sparta Rotterdam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Willem II and Sparta Rotterdam will score (BTTS).
Will Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Sparta Rotterdam?
Record (4 meetings): Willem II 0W | Draws 0 | Sparta Rotterdam 4W.
What form are Willem II and Sparta Rotterdam in?
Willem II (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.60 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Willem II's attacking strength (0.64x league average) is weighed against Sparta Rotterdam's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. The same calculation in reverse, Sparta Rotterdam's attack versus Willem II's defence, projects 1.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Rotterdam Win
24%
4.24
25%
3.98
51%
1.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Willem II xG
Total xG
3.16
1.91
Sparta Rotterdam xG
4.24
24%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
1.95
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
15%
6.73
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
4%
28.52
15%
6.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 8.1 | 7.7 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 10.1 | 9.7 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.4 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Willem II and Sparta Rotterdam expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Willem II and 1.91 for Sparta Rotterdam, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Willem II come into this having played 41 games, going 19W 9D 13L for 1.61 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Willem II, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Sparta Rotterdam sit at 1.17 PPG from 41 outings (13W 9D 19L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Sparta Rotterdam, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Willem II carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Sparta Rotterdam — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Willem II's home form reads 8W 5D 7L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Sparta Rotterdam have taken 1.15 points per game from 20 outings (7W 2D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Willem II are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Sparta Rotterdam are on 1.22 scored and 1.93 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Early Season
Sparta Rotterdam
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Willem II and Sparta Rotterdam in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 19W 9D 13L in their last 41 games (1.61 PPG), while Sparta Rotterdam have gone 13W 9D 19L in their last 41 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or Sparta Rotterdam away?
Willem II's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 1.45 PPG; Sparta Rotterdam away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Sparta Rotterdam have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Mar 2025, when Sparta Rotterdam won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Willem II's record when hosting Sparta Rotterdam specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Willem II
0
Draws
4
Sparta Rotterdam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Sparta Rotterdam?
From 4 meetings on record, Willem II have won 0, Sparta Rotterdam have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and Sparta Rotterdam last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2025, when Sparta Rotterdam 4-0 Willem II.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and Sparta Rotterdam?
Sparta Rotterdam have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Willem II 50%, Sparta Rotterdam 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Willem II) and 70% (Sparta Rotterdam). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 10% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / Sparta Rotterdam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Willem II play Sparta Rotterdam?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Willem II's recent matches and 50% of Sparta Rotterdam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 45% of Willem II's matches and 70% of Sparta Rotterdam's.
Do Willem II and Sparta Rotterdam tend to score early?
Willem II have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Sparta Rotterdam in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.