Willem II 1-2 Heerenveen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Willem II at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Willem II vs Heerenveen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 15 as Willem II welcome Heerenveen to Koning Willem II Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 8 December 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Willem II have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Willem II's home record at Koning Willem II Stadion: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Heerenveen — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Heerenveen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Heerenveen away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Willem II 1.10 PPG, Heerenveen 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Willem II, 1 for Heerenveen and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 5 Mar 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Willem II in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Heerenveen in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 88% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Willem II 58% versus Heerenveen 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 48% | Heerenveen 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.76 xG and Heerenveen 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 0.714 / defence 0.979 | Heerenveen attack 0.630 / defence 1.456. League average goals — home 1.696 / away 1.273. Willem II's attack strength of 0.714 is below the league average — the 1.76 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Heerenveen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.456 — this is suppressing Willem II's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Willem II games / 48 Heerenveen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Willem II 61% | Draw 23% | Heerenveen 16%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 1.64 | Draw 4.35 | Heerenveen 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Willem II (61%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Willem II at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Willem II 50% | Heerenveen 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs Heerenveen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Dec 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 61% | Draw 23% | Heerenveen 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 45% | xG Willem II 1.76 / Heerenveen 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 0.714 / def 0.979 | Heerenveen attack 0.630 / def 1.456 | league avg home 1.696 / away 1.273 • Poisson stance: Willem II (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Heerenveen xG
45%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Willem II vs Heerenveen kick off?
Willem II vs Heerenveen kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 8 December 2024 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs Heerenveen?
Willem II 1 - 2 Heerenveen.
Where is Willem II vs Heerenveen being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs Heerenveen part of?
Willem II vs Heerenveen is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs Heerenveen?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 61% chance of winning, Heerenveen a 16% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs Heerenveen?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Willem II and Heerenveen will score (BTTS).
Will Willem II vs Heerenveen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Heerenveen?
Record (2 meetings): Willem II 0W | Draws 1 | Heerenveen 1W.
What form are Willem II and Heerenveen in?
Willem II (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Heerenveen (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Willem II's attacking strength (0.71x league average) is weighed against Heerenveen's defensive record (1.46x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.76. The same calculation in reverse, Heerenveen's attack versus Willem II's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.2%), 2-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
61%
1.65
23%
4.34
16%
6.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Willem II xG
Total xG
2.55
0.79
Heerenveen xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
6.13
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
17%
5.82
Win to Nil
28%
3.61
3%
35.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.8 | 10.8 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.2 | 9.5 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.1 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs Heerenveen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Willem II and Heerenveen expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Willem II and 0.79 for Heerenveen, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs Heerenveen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Willem II come into this having played 48 games, going 26W 12D 10L for 1.88 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-L. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Heerenveen sit at 1.08 PPG from 48 outings (14W 10D 24L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Heerenveen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Willem II carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.80 PPG clear of Heerenveen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Willem II's home form reads 15W 5D 4L across 24 games on their own ground, a 2.08 PPG return.
Away from home, Heerenveen have taken 0.67 points per game from 24 outings (4W 4D 16L). That's a step down from their 1.08 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Heerenveen's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Willem II come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Willem II are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Heerenveen are on 1.40 scored and 2.02 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Blended
Heerenveen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Willem II and Heerenveen in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 26W 12D 10L in their last 48 games (1.88 PPG), while Heerenveen have gone 14W 10D 24L in their last 48 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or Heerenveen away?
Willem II's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 2.08 PPG; Heerenveen away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Willem II's record when hosting Heerenveen specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Willem II
2
Draws
3
Heerenveen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Heerenveen?
From 5 meetings on record, Willem II have won 0, Heerenveen have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and Heerenveen last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Willem II 2-2 Heerenveen.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and Heerenveen?
Heerenveen have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Heerenveen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Willem II 62%, Heerenveen 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Willem II and 62% for Heerenveen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heerenveen in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / Heerenveen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Willem II play Heerenveen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Willem II's recent matches and 46% of Heerenveen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Willem II vs Heerenveen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Willem II's matches and 62% of Heerenveen's.
Do Willem II and Heerenveen tend to score early?
Willem II have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Heerenveen in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Heerenveen defy the odds to beat Willem II 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Heerenveen beat Willem II 1-2 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.76 xG and Heerenveen 0.79 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Heerenveen outscored their 0.79 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.71 / defence 0.98 against Heerenveen attack 0.63 / defence 1.46, drawn from 14/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 61% | Draw 23% | Heerenveen 16%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a Heerenveen win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 48%, Heerenveen 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Heerenveen's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Willem II arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.08. Form was overturned, with Heerenveen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Willem II (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.08 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Heerenveen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.