Willem II 1-1 Fortuna Sittard – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Willem II at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Willem II vs Fortuna Sittard encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Koning Willem II Stadion plays host to Willem II versus Fortuna Sittard in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Friday 22 October 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Willem II have collected 1.89 PPG across 9 Eredivisie outings this season: 5W 2D 2L. Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 1.44 goals per game and conceding 1.22 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Willem II have posted 3W 0D 1L at Koning Willem II Stadion — 2.25 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Fortuna Sittard (all games): 2W 2D 4L across 8 Eredivisie outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Sittard, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortuna Sittard away from home this season: 0W 1D 2L from 3 away games — 0.33 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.33 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Willem II's 1.89 PPG return is 0.89 points per game ahead of Fortuna Sittard's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading
Willem II half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games.
Fortuna Sittard half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Willem II 62% and Fortuna Sittard 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 62% | Fortuna Sittard 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.52 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 0.895 / defence 1.143 | Fortuna Sittard attack 0.631 / defence 1.261. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.409. Fortuna Sittard bring a strong defensive rating of 1.261 — this is suppressing Willem II's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Willem II games / 8 Fortuna Sittard games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Willem II 49% | Draw 26% | Fortuna Sittard 25%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Fortuna Sittard 4.00. Willem II hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Willem II at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Willem II if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Willem II 50% | Fortuna Sittard 67%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs Fortuna Sittard | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 22 Oct 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 49% | Draw 26% | Fortuna Sittard 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Willem II 1.52 / Fortuna Sittard 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 0.895 / def 1.143 | Fortuna Sittard attack 0.631 / def 1.261 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.409 • Poisson stance: Willem II (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Fortuna Sittard xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Willem II vs Fortuna Sittard kick off?
Willem II vs Fortuna Sittard kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 22 October 2021 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs Fortuna Sittard?
Willem II 1 - 1 Fortuna Sittard.
Where is Willem II vs Fortuna Sittard being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs Fortuna Sittard part of?
Willem II vs Fortuna Sittard is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 49% chance of winning, Fortuna Sittard a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Willem II and Fortuna Sittard will score (BTTS).
Will Willem II vs Fortuna Sittard have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Fortuna Sittard?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Willem II and Fortuna Sittard in?
Willem II (all comps): 5W-2D-2L in 9 | 1.89 PPG | GF 1.44 / GA 1.22 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Fortuna Sittard (all comps): 2W-2D-4L in 8 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Willem II's attack rating (0.90) and Fortuna Sittard's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fortuna Sittard's attack (0.63x) against Willem II's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 9/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
49%
2.04
26%
3.88
25%
3.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Willem II xG
Total xG
2.54
1.02
Fortuna Sittard xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
3.95
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
22%
4.57
Win to Nil
18%
5.65
6%
18.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.0 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.2 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Willem II and Fortuna Sittard expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Willem II and 1.02 for Fortuna Sittard, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs Fortuna Sittard?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 8 outings, Willem II have picked up 2.12 PPG on a 5W 2D 1L record — W-W-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fortuna Sittard's form line: 2W 2D 4L from 8 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W. The sample for Fortuna Sittard is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Willem II are the form team by 1.12 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fortuna Sittard.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Willem II have posted 3.00 PPG from 3 outings (3W 0D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 2.12 PPG overall — Willem II are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Fortuna Sittard have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 away games — 0.33 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fortuna Sittard's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Willem II come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Willem II are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Sittard are on 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Willem II have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Fortuna Sittard in 62%.
Defensively: Willem II have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Blended
Fortuna Sittard
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Willem II and Fortuna Sittard in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 5W 2D 1L in their last 8 games (2.12 PPG), while Fortuna Sittard have gone 2W 2D 4L in their last 8 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or Fortuna Sittard away?
Willem II's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 3.00 PPG; Fortuna Sittard away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Willem II or Fortuna Sittard been keeping clean sheets recently?
Willem II have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Fortuna Sittard in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Willem II have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Fortuna Sittard — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Willem II
2
Draws
2
Fortuna Sittard
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Fortuna Sittard?
From 4 meetings on record, Willem II have won 0, Fortuna Sittard have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and Fortuna Sittard last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2025, when Fortuna Sittard 1-0 Willem II.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and Fortuna Sittard?
Fortuna Sittard have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Fortuna Sittard are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Willem II, 67% for Fortuna Sittard — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Willem II) and 33% (Fortuna Sittard).
On the defensive side: Willem II keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Fortuna Sittard in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / Fortuna Sittard away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Willem II play Fortuna Sittard?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Willem II's games and 67% of Fortuna Sittard's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Willem II vs Fortuna Sittard usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Willem II's recent games and 33% of Fortuna Sittard's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Willem II and Fortuna Sittard tend to score early?
Willem II have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Fortuna Sittard in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Willem II and Fortuna Sittard share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 10, as Willem II and Fortuna Sittard drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.52 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.02 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.90 / defence 1.14 against Fortuna Sittard attack 0.63 / defence 1.26, drawn from 9/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 49% | Draw 26% | Fortuna Sittard 25%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 62%, Fortuna Sittard 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Willem II arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.