Waalwijk 3-1 Vitesse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Waalwijk at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Waalwijk face Vitesse.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Vitesse travel to Mandemakers Stadion to take on Waalwijk in Eredivisie (matchday 25). The game is scheduled for Saturday 9 March 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Waalwijk have gone 1W 2D 7L — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
At home, Waalwijk have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Waalwijk are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Vitesse — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Vitesse away from home: 2W 0D 8L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.50 PPG (Waalwijk) versus 0.80 (Vitesse). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Waalwijk have won 3, Vitesse 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 16 Sep 2023, ended Waalwijk 2–0 Vitesse — a Waalwijk win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Waalwijk in-play tendencies (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Vitesse in-play tendencies (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waalwijk 53% versus Vitesse 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waalwijk 60% | Vitesse 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 1.74 xG and Vitesse 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 0.790 / defence 0.984 | Vitesse attack 0.768 / defence 1.408. League average goals — home 1.559 / away 1.442. Waalwijk's attack rating of 0.790 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.74. Vitesse's defence rating of 1.408 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Waalwijk's projected output up. Vitesse's attack rating of 0.768 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.09. Data: built from Waalwijk's last 58 games and Vitesse's last 58.
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 52% | Draw 25% | Vitesse 23%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 1.93 | Draw 3.97 | Vitesse 4.33. Waalwijk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Waalwijk are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Waalwijk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Waalwijk's last 10 home games and Vitesse's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Waalwijk 60% (last 10 home games) | Vitesse 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs Vitesse | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 25 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 9 March 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 52% | Draw 25% | Vitesse 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Waalwijk 1.74 / Vitesse 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 0.790 / def 0.984 | Vitesse attack 0.768 / def 1.408 | league avg home 1.559 / away 1.442 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Vitesse xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Waalwijk vs Vitesse FAQs
What time does Waalwijk vs Vitesse kick off?
Waalwijk vs Vitesse kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Saturday 9 March 2024 at Mandemakers Stadion.
What was the final score in Waalwijk vs Vitesse?
Waalwijk 3 - 1 Vitesse.
Where is Waalwijk vs Vitesse being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs Vitesse part of?
Waalwijk vs Vitesse is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 25) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs Vitesse?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 52% chance of winning, Vitesse a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs Vitesse?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Waalwijk and Vitesse will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Waalwijk vs Vitesse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Waalwijk's attack rating (0.79) and Vitesse's defence rating (1.41), the model arrives at 1.74 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Vitesse's attack versus Waalwijk's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Waalwijk's last 58 games and Vitesse's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
52%
1.93
25%
3.97
23%
4.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
2.83
1.09
Vitesse xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
4.33
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
18%
5.67
Win to Nil
17%
5.75
4%
24.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 11.2 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.7 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Waalwijk vs Vitesse Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs Vitesse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and Vitesse expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Waalwijk and 1.09 for Vitesse, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs Vitesse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 58 outings, Waalwijk have picked up 1.02 PPG on a 16W 11D 31L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Vitesse's form line: 14W 14D 30L from 58 games, 0.97 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Waalwijk on 1.02 PPG, Vitesse on 0.97. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Waalwijk have posted 1.41 PPG from their last 29 home games (12W 5D 12L).
On the road, Vitesse have gone 8W 4D 17L from their last 29 away games — 0.97 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Waalwijk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Waalwijk are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Vitesse are on 1.10 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Blended
Vitesse
Blended
Waalwijk (Home) vs Vitesse (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Waalwijk
Blended
Vitesse
Blended
❓ Waalwijk vs Vitesse Form FAQs
What form are Waalwijk and Vitesse in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 16W 11D 31L in their last 58 games (1.02 PPG), while Vitesse have gone 14W 14D 30L in their last 58 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or Vitesse away?
Waalwijk's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 1.41 PPG; Vitesse away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 9 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from September 2021. They cover more than one competition — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie. The most recent was on 7 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Waalwijk's record when hosting Vitesse specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Waalwijk
3
Draws
2
Vitesse
Recent Meetings
❓ Waalwijk vs Vitesse H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Vitesse?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Waalwijk have won 4, Vitesse have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and Vitesse last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 August 2026: Vitesse 1-1 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between Waalwijk and Vitesse?
Waalwijk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waalwijk 62%, Vitesse 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 66% for Waalwijk and 62% for Vitesse. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vitesse in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / Vitesse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Waalwijk vs Vitesse Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Waalwijk and Vitesse matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Waalwijk's games and 48% of Vitesse's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Waalwijk and Vitesse matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Waalwijk's matches and 62% of Vitesse's.
Do Waalwijk and Vitesse matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Waalwijk's recent matches and 79% of Vitesse's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Waalwijk cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Vitesse.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waalwijk beat Vitesse 3-1 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.74 xG and Vitesse 1.09 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Waalwijk beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 0.79 / defence 0.98 against Vitesse attack 0.77 / defence 1.41, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 52% | Draw 25% | Vitesse 23%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 60%, Vitesse 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waalwijk's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Vitesse's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Waalwijk 1.02 PPG, Vitesse 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Waalwijk win broke the near-deadlock. Waalwijk (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm. Vitesse (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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