Waalwijk 1-4 PSV Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates PSV Eindhoven at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Waalwijk vs PSV Eindhoven encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Waalwijk and PSV Eindhoven meet at Mandemakers Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 19 December 2021 at 15:45 UTC.
Current Form
Waalwijk's overall Eredivisie record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Waalwijk's home record at Mandemakers Stadion: 3W 1D 4L from 8 Eredivisie appearances (1.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
PSV Eindhoven (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for PSV Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PSV Eindhoven's away record: 5W 1D 2L from 8 road trips in Eredivisie this season (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.88 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
PSV Eindhoven arrive in superior form — a 1.20 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading Data
Waalwijk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
PSV Eindhoven goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Waalwijk 62% and PSV Eindhoven 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Waalwijk 56% | PSV Eindhoven 81%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 1.09 xG and PSV Eindhoven 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 0.760 / defence 1.242 | PSV Eindhoven attack 1.007 / defence 1.194. League average goals — home 1.207 / away 1.389. Waalwijk's attack strength of 0.760 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 16 Waalwijk games / 16 PSV Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 24% | Draw 24% | PSV Eindhoven 52%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 4.17 | Draw 4.17 | PSV Eindhoven 1.92. PSV Eindhoven hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates PSV Eindhoven as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PSV Eindhoven if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Waalwijk 50% | PSV Eindhoven 62% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs PSV Eindhoven | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Dec 2021, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 24% | Draw 24% | PSV Eindhoven 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 55% | xG Waalwijk 1.09 / PSV Eindhoven 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 0.760 / def 1.242 | PSV Eindhoven attack 1.007 / def 1.194 | league avg home 1.207 / away 1.389 • Poisson stance: PSV Eindhoven (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
1.74
PSV Eindhoven xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waalwijk vs PSV Eindhoven kick off?
Waalwijk vs PSV Eindhoven kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 19 December 2021 at Mandemakers Stadion.
What was the final score in Waalwijk vs PSV Eindhoven?
Waalwijk 1 - 4 PSV Eindhoven.
Where is Waalwijk vs PSV Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs PSV Eindhoven part of?
Waalwijk vs PSV Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 24% chance of winning, PSV Eindhoven a 52% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making PSV Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Waalwijk and PSV Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will Waalwijk vs PSV Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and PSV Eindhoven?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Waalwijk and PSV Eindhoven in?
Waalwijk (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-W-L. PSV Eindhoven (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Waalwijk's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against PSV Eindhoven's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. Flip it around — PSV Eindhoven's attack (1.01x) against Waalwijk's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.74.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PSV Eindhoven Win
24%
4.21
24%
4.18
52%
1.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
2.83
1.74
PSV Eindhoven xG
4.21
24%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
1.91
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
18%
5.67
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
4%
23.86
18%
5.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 10.2 | 8.9 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.2 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.1 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and PSV Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Waalwijk and 1.74 for PSV Eindhoven, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs PSV Eindhoven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Waalwijk come into this having played 16 games, going 3W 6D 7L for 0.94 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W-L. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, PSV Eindhoven sit at 2.31 PPG from 16 outings (12W 1D 3L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for PSV Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PSV Eindhoven carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.37 PPG clear of Waalwijk — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Waalwijk's home form reads 3W 1D 4L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, PSV Eindhoven have taken 2.00 points per game from 8 outings (5W 1D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PSV Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Waalwijk are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; PSV Eindhoven are on 2.50 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; PSV Eindhoven in 69%.
Last 16 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Blended
PSV Eindhoven
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waalwijk and PSV Eindhoven in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 3W 6D 7L in their last 16 games (0.94 PPG), while PSV Eindhoven have gone 12W 1D 3L in their last 16 (2.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or PSV Eindhoven away?
PSV Eindhoven's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 1.25 PPG; PSV Eindhoven away: 2.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
PSV Eindhoven have won the last 8 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PSV Eindhoven won 0-4 on 2 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Waalwijk have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 meetings on their own ground against PSV Eindhoven — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Waalwijk
0
Draws
8
PSV Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and PSV Eindhoven?
From 8 meetings on record, Waalwijk have won 0, PSV Eindhoven have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and PSV Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2025, when Waalwijk 0-3 PSV Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between Waalwijk and PSV Eindhoven?
PSV Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
PSV Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waalwijk 50%, PSV Eindhoven 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Waalwijk and 75% for PSV Eindhoven. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 12% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / PSV Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waalwijk play PSV Eindhoven?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Waalwijk's games and 62% of PSV Eindhoven's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Waalwijk vs PSV Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Waalwijk's matches and 75% of PSV Eindhoven's.
Do Waalwijk and PSV Eindhoven tend to score early?
Waalwijk have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, PSV Eindhoven in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant PSV Eindhoven run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Waalwijk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PSV Eindhoven beat Waalwijk 1-4 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.09 xG and PSV Eindhoven 1.74 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. PSV Eindhoven outscored their 1.74 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 0.76 / defence 1.24 against PSV Eindhoven attack 1.01 / defence 1.19, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 24% | Draw 24% | PSV Eindhoven 52%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 56%, PSV Eindhoven 81%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waalwijk's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.31 PPG against 0.94. That form edge translated into the three points. Waalwijk (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PSV Eindhoven (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.