Waalwijk 2-0 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Waalwijk at 39%, yet in-form Almere City FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Waalwijk vs Almere City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Mandemakers Stadion plays host to Waalwijk versus Almere City FC in Eredivisie (matchday 11). Kick-off: Sunday 3 November 2024 at 15:45 UK time.
Current Form
Waalwijk's record over their last 10 games: 0W 1D 9L (0.10 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Waalwijk have posted 1W 5D 4L from their last 10 home games — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.10 — Waalwijk are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Almere City FC have collected 0.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Almere City FC's away record over their last 10 away games: 0W 6D 4L (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Almere City FC are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (0.60 vs 0.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Waalwijk, 1 for Almere City FC and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 2 H2H matches in our data, averaging 0.5 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 4 Apr 2024, ended Waalwijk 0–0 Almere City FC — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Waalwijk — key trading statistics (last 44 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Almere City FC — key trading statistics (last 44 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 56%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waalwijk 57% versus Almere City FC 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waalwijk 59% | Almere City FC 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 1.27 xG and Almere City FC 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 0.769 / defence 1.249 | Almere City FC attack 0.745 / defence 0.982. League average goals — home 1.685 / away 1.255. Waalwijk's attack rating of 0.769 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.27. Almere City FC's attack rating of 0.745 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.17. Waalwijk's defence rating of 1.249 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Almere City FC's projected output up. Data: built from Waalwijk's last 44 games and Almere City FC's last 44.
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 39% | Draw 27% | Almere City FC 34%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 2.57 | Draw 3.66 | Almere City FC 2.96. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Waalwijk are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Almere City FC (0.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Waalwijk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 56% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Waalwijk 70% (last 10 home games) | Almere City FC 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 11 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 3 November 2024 at 15:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 39% | Draw 27% | Almere City FC 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Waalwijk 1.27 / Almere City FC 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 0.769 / def 1.249 | Almere City FC attack 0.745 / def 0.982 | league avg home 1.685 / away 1.255 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Almere City FC xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Waalwijk vs Almere City FC FAQs
What time does Waalwijk vs Almere City FC kick off?
Waalwijk vs Almere City FC kicked off at 15:45 UK time on Sunday 3 November 2024 at Mandemakers Stadion.
What was the final score in Waalwijk vs Almere City FC?
Waalwijk 2 - 0 Almere City FC.
Where is Waalwijk vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs Almere City FC part of?
Waalwijk vs Almere City FC is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 11) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 39% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Waalwijk and Almere City FC will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Waalwijk vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Waalwijk's attack at 0.77x the league average against Almere City FC's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Almere City FC's attack (0.74x) against Waalwijk's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from Waalwijk's last 44 games and Almere City FC's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
39%
2.57
27%
3.66
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
2.44
1.17
Almere City FC xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
12%
8.28
9%
10.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 10.2 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.9 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Waalwijk vs Almere City FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Waalwijk and 1.17 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs Almere City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 44 outings, Waalwijk have picked up 0.68 PPG on a 7W 9D 28L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Almere City FC's form line: 8W 16D 20L from 44 games, 0.91 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.68 PPG for Waalwijk against 0.91 for Almere City FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Waalwijk have posted 0.90 PPG from their last 21 home games (4W 7D 10L).
On the road, Almere City FC have gone 4W 8D 9L from their last 21 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Waalwijk are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.91 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 0.86 scored and 1.82 conceded.
Last 44 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Blended
Almere City FC
Blended
Waalwijk (Home) vs Almere City FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Waalwijk
Blended
Almere City FC
Blended
❓ Waalwijk vs Almere City FC Form FAQs
What form are Waalwijk and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 7W 9D 28L in their last 44 games (0.68 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 8W 16D 20L in their last 44 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or Almere City FC away?
Almere City FC's away record (0.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 0.90 PPG; Almere City FC away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 7 H2H matches between Waalwijk and Almere City FC, the earliest from October 2023. They cover more than one competition — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie. The most recent was as recently as 30 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Waalwijk won Almere City FC 1-4 Waalwijk on 2 Feb 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Waalwijk have gone 2W 1D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Almere City FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Waalwijk
2
Draws
2
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Waalwijk vs Almere City FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Almere City FC?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Waalwijk have won 3, Almere City FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and Almere City FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 October 2026: Waalwijk 1-2 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between Waalwijk and Almere City FC?
Waalwijk have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waalwijk 62%, Almere City FC 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Waalwijk) and 48% (Almere City FC).
On the defensive side: Waalwijk have failed to score in 29% of games; Almere City FC in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Waalwijk vs Almere City FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Waalwijk and Almere City FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Waalwijk's recent matches and 48% of Almere City FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Waalwijk and Almere City FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Waalwijk's recent games and 48% of Almere City FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Waalwijk and Almere City FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Waalwijk's recent matches and 71% of Almere City FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Waalwijk cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Almere City FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waalwijk beat Almere City FC 2-0 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.27 xG and Almere City FC 1.17 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Almere City FC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 0.77 / defence 1.25 against Almere City FC attack 0.74 / defence 0.98, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 39% | Draw 27% | Almere City FC 34%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 59%, Almere City FC 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waalwijk's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Almere City FC's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Waalwijk 0.68 PPG, Almere City FC 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Waalwijk win broke the near-deadlock. Waalwijk (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line. Almere City FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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