Utrecht 1-0 Heracles – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Utrecht at 75%, yet other data sources diverge — this Utrecht vs Heracles fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Heracles travel to Stadion Galgenwaard to take on Utrecht. The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 November 2021, 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Utrecht have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Galgenwaard, Utrecht have gone 5W 1D 0L this season (6 games, 2.67 PPG). They are averaging 3.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.67 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Utrecht are significantly better at Stadion Galgenwaard than their overall form suggests.
Heracles — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Heracles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Heracles's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 4L across 5 road games this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Utrecht 1.60 PPG, Heracles 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Utrecht register both teams scoring in 83% of relevant matches, Heracles in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Utrecht in-play and half-time data (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Heracles in-play and half-time data (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Utrecht 67% versus Heracles 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Utrecht 75% | Heracles 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Utrecht 2.80 xG and Heracles 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Utrecht attack 1.617 / defence 1.068 | Heracles attack 0.674 / defence 1.369. League average goals — home 1.263 / away 1.371. Utrecht carry an above-average attack strength of 1.617 — their λ of 2.80 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Heracles bring a strong defensive rating of 1.369 — this is suppressing Utrecht's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Utrecht games / 12 Heracles games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Utrecht 75% | Draw 14% | Heracles 11%. Fair-value odds: Utrecht 1.33 | Draw 7.14 | Heracles 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Utrecht (75%) — a 64pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.78. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.78 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Utrecht as the most likely outcome at 75% — clear model lean.
Poisson projects 3.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 73% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Utrecht 83% | Heracles 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Utrecht vs Heracles | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadion Galgenwaard • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Nov 2021, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Utrecht 75% | Draw 14% | Heracles 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 59% | xG Utrecht 2.80 / Heracles 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Utrecht attack 1.617 / def 1.068 | Heracles attack 0.674 / def 1.369 | league avg home 1.263 / away 1.371 • Poisson stance: Utrecht (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.80
Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Heracles xG
59%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Utrecht vs Heracles kick off?
Utrecht vs Heracles kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 28 November 2021 at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What was the final score in Utrecht vs Heracles?
Utrecht 1 - 0 Heracles.
Where is Utrecht vs Heracles being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What competition is Utrecht vs Heracles part of?
Utrecht vs Heracles is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Utrecht vs Heracles?
Our statistical model gives Utrecht a 75% chance of winning, Heracles a 11% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Utrecht vs Heracles?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Utrecht and Heracles will score (BTTS).
Will Utrecht vs Heracles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Utrecht and Heracles?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Utrecht and Heracles in?
Utrecht (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Heracles (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Utrecht's attack at 1.62x the league average against Heracles's defence at 1.37x — combine the two and it projects 2.80 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Heracles's attack versus Utrecht's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 8.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 3-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Utrecht Win
75%
1.33
14%
6.91
11%
9.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
3 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.80
Utrecht xG
Total xG
3.78
0.99
Heracles xG
1.33
75%
Home win
6.91
14%
Draw
9.44
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
6%
16.38
Win to Nil
28%
3.58
1%
154.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.3 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Utrecht vs Heracles?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are Utrecht and Heracles expected to score?
The model projects 2.80 expected goals for Utrecht and 0.99 for Heracles, a combined total of 3.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Utrecht vs Heracles?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 12 outings, Utrecht have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 6W 2D 4L record — L-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Heracles's form line: 4W 2D 6L from 12 games, 1.17 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W. The sample for Heracles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Utrecht are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Heracles.
Venue Form
On home soil, Utrecht have posted 2.60 PPG from 5 outings (4W 1D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.67 PPG overall — Utrecht are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Heracles have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 away games — 0.20 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.17 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Heracles's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Utrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Utrecht are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Heracles are on 1.17 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Utrecht have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 12 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Utrecht
Blended
Heracles
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Utrecht and Heracles in coming into this match?
Utrecht have gone 6W 2D 4L in their last 12 games (1.67 PPG), while Heracles have gone 4W 2D 6L in their last 12 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Utrecht at home or Heracles away?
Utrecht's home record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Utrecht at home: 2.60 PPG; Heracles away: 0.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Aug 2025, when Utrecht won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Utrecht's record when hosting Heracles specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Utrecht
2
Draws
1
Heracles
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Utrecht and Heracles?
From 8 meetings on record, Utrecht have won 5, Heracles have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Utrecht and Heracles last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Heracles 0-0 Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Utrecht and Heracles?
Utrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Utrecht at 100%, Heracles at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Utrecht and 40% for Heracles. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 80% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heracles in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Utrecht home games / Heracles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Utrecht play Heracles?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Utrecht's games and 60% of Heracles's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Utrecht vs Heracles usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Utrecht's matches and 40% of Heracles's.
Do Utrecht and Heracles tend to score early?
Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Heracles in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Utrecht edge out Heracles 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Utrecht beat Heracles 1-0 at Stadion Galgenwaard, Regular Season - 14, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Utrecht 2.80 xG and Heracles 0.99 xG, a combined 3.78. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Utrecht fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Heracles landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utrecht attack 1.62 / defence 1.07 against Heracles attack 0.67 / defence 1.37, drawn from 13/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Utrecht 75% | Draw 14% | Heracles 11%, with Utrecht to win its most likely call at 75%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Utrecht 75%, Heracles 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Utrecht's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Heracles's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Utrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.17. Form held, and they took the win. Utrecht (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Heracles (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.