Utrecht 2-1 Groningen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Utrecht at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Utrecht vs Groningen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Utrecht host Groningen at Stadion Galgenwaard in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 6 November 2022 at 11:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Utrecht — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Utrecht at Stadion Galgenwaard this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Groningen stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Groningen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Groningen away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Utrecht have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Utrecht, 1 for Groningen and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Mar 2022, ended 1–3 with Groningen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Utrecht in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Groningen in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Utrecht 63% and Groningen 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Utrecht 61% | Groningen 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Utrecht 1.46 xG and Groningen 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Utrecht attack 0.848 / defence 0.824 | Groningen attack 0.770 / defence 1.038. League average goals — home 1.656 / away 1.322. Data: 46 Utrecht games / 46 Groningen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Utrecht 52% | Draw 27% | Groningen 22%. Fair-value odds: Utrecht 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | Groningen 4.55. Utrecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Utrecht at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Utrecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.30 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Utrecht 50% | Groningen 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Utrecht vs Groningen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadion Galgenwaard • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Nov 2022, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Utrecht 52% | Draw 27% | Groningen 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 44% | xG Utrecht 1.46 / Groningen 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Utrecht attack 0.848 / def 0.824 | Groningen attack 0.770 / def 1.038 | league avg home 1.656 / away 1.322 • Poisson stance: Utrecht (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Groningen xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Utrecht vs Groningen kick off?
Utrecht vs Groningen kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 6 November 2022 at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What was the final score in Utrecht vs Groningen?
Utrecht 2 - 1 Groningen.
Where is Utrecht vs Groningen being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What competition is Utrecht vs Groningen part of?
Utrecht vs Groningen is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Utrecht vs Groningen?
Our statistical model gives Utrecht a 52% chance of winning, Groningen a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Utrecht vs Groningen?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Utrecht and Groningen will score (BTTS).
Will Utrecht vs Groningen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Utrecht and Groningen?
Record (2 meetings): Utrecht 0W | Draws 1 | Groningen 1W.
What form are Utrecht and Groningen in?
Utrecht (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Groningen (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Utrecht's attack rating (0.85) and Groningen's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Groningen's attack versus Utrecht's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.1%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Utrecht Win
52%
1.93
27%
3.75
22%
4.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Utrecht xG
Total xG
2.30
0.84
Groningen xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
4.62
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
23%
4.29
Win to Nil
22%
4.48
5%
19.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 8.4 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 12.3 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.0 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Utrecht vs Groningen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Utrecht and Groningen expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Utrecht and 0.84 for Groningen, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Utrecht vs Groningen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Utrecht come into this having played 46 games, going 17W 13D 16L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-W. The sample for Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Groningen sit at 1.04 PPG from 46 outings (12W 12D 22L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Groningen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Utrecht on 1.39 PPG, Groningen on 1.04. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Utrecht's home form reads 10W 8D 5L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.65 PPG return.
Away from home, Groningen have taken 1.00 points per game from 23 outings (6W 5D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Utrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Utrecht are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Groningen are on 1.20 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Utrecht have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Groningen in 63%.
Last 46 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Utrecht
Blended
Groningen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Utrecht and Groningen in coming into this match?
Utrecht have gone 17W 13D 16L in their last 46 games (1.39 PPG), while Groningen have gone 12W 12D 22L in their last 46 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Utrecht at home or Groningen away?
Utrecht's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Utrecht at home: 1.65 PPG; Groningen away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Utrecht's record when hosting Groningen specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Utrecht
1
Draws
2
Groningen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Utrecht and Groningen?
From 8 meetings on record, Utrecht have won 5, Groningen have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Utrecht and Groningen last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Groningen 1-2 Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Utrecht and Groningen?
Utrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Utrecht 61%, Groningen 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Utrecht) and 65% (Groningen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Utrecht have failed to score in 26% of games; Groningen in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Utrecht home games / Groningen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Utrecht play Groningen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Utrecht's games and 65% of Groningen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Utrecht vs Groningen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Utrecht's matches and 65% of Groningen's.
Do Utrecht and Groningen tend to score early?
Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Groningen in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Utrecht edge out Groningen 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Utrecht beat Groningen 2-1 at Stadion Galgenwaard, Regular Season - 13, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Utrecht 1.46 xG and Groningen 0.84 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utrecht attack 0.85 / defence 0.82 against Groningen attack 0.77 / defence 1.04, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Utrecht 52% | Draw 27% | Groningen 22%, with Utrecht to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Utrecht 61%, Groningen 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Utrecht's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Groningen's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Utrecht 1.39 PPG, Groningen 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Utrecht win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.