Utrecht 0-0 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Utrecht at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Utrecht vs FC Volendam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 27 as Utrecht welcome FC Volendam to Stadion Galgenwaard. Kick-off is set for Sunday 2 April 2023 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Utrecht have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Galgenwaard, Utrecht have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Volendam stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, FC Volendam have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Utrecht at 1.20 PPG versus FC Volendam's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Utrecht have won 1, FC Volendam 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2022, ended 4–0 with Utrecht winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Utrecht in-play tendencies (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
FC Volendam in-play tendencies (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Utrecht 60% and FC Volendam 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Utrecht 61% | FC Volendam 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Utrecht 1.57 xG and FC Volendam 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Utrecht attack 0.829 / defence 0.956 | FC Volendam attack 0.703 / defence 1.230. League average goals — home 1.544 / away 1.313. FC Volendam bring a strong defensive rating of 1.230 — this is suppressing Utrecht's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 60 Utrecht games / 26 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Utrecht 52% | Draw 29% | FC Volendam 19%. Fair-value odds: Utrecht 1.92 | Draw 3.45 | FC Volendam 5.26. Utrecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Utrecht as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Utrecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. This conflicts with form data: Utrecht 70% | FC Volendam 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Utrecht vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadion Galgenwaard • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Apr 2023, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Utrecht 52% | Draw 29% | FC Volendam 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 48% | xG Utrecht 1.57 / FC Volendam 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Utrecht attack 0.829 / def 0.956 | FC Volendam attack 0.703 / def 1.230 | league avg home 1.544 / away 1.313 • Poisson stance: Utrecht (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
0.88
FC Volendam xG
48%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Utrecht vs FC Volendam kick off?
Utrecht vs FC Volendam kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 2 April 2023 at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What was the final score in Utrecht vs FC Volendam?
Utrecht 0 - 0 FC Volendam.
Where is Utrecht vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What competition is Utrecht vs FC Volendam part of?
Utrecht vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Utrecht vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives Utrecht a 52% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 19% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Utrecht vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Utrecht and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will Utrecht vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Utrecht and FC Volendam?
Record (1 meetings): Utrecht 1W | Draws 0 | FC Volendam 0W.
What form are Utrecht and FC Volendam in?
Utrecht (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. FC Volendam (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Utrecht's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against FC Volendam's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. The same calculation in reverse, FC Volendam's attack versus Utrecht's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 2-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Utrecht Win
52%
1.94
29%
3.42
19%
5.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Utrecht xG
Total xG
2.46
0.88
FC Volendam xG
1.94
52%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
5.23
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
21%
4.83
Win to Nil
21%
4.68
4%
25.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.5 | 11.9 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.4 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Utrecht vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Utrecht and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Utrecht and 0.88 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Utrecht vs FC Volendam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Utrecht come into this having played 62 games, going 23W 19D 20L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-L. The sample for Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Volendam sit at 1.61 PPG from 62 outings (28W 16D 18L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Utrecht on 1.42 PPG, FC Volendam on 1.61. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Utrecht's home form reads 14W 10D 7L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.68 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Volendam have taken 1.26 points per game from 31 outings (9W 12D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Utrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Utrecht are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 1.76 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam in 68%.
Last 62 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Utrecht
Blended
FC Volendam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Utrecht and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
Utrecht have gone 23W 19D 20L in their last 62 games (1.42 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 28W 16D 18L in their last 62 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Utrecht at home or FC Volendam away?
Utrecht's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Utrecht at home: 1.68 PPG; FC Volendam away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Utrecht and FC Volendam runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Nov 2022, when Utrecht won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Utrecht's record when hosting FC Volendam specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Utrecht
1
Draws
2
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Utrecht and FC Volendam?
From 6 meetings on record, Utrecht have won 3, FC Volendam have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Utrecht and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when FC Volendam 2-1 Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Utrecht and FC Volendam?
Utrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Utrecht 61%, FC Volendam 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Utrecht) and 55% (FC Volendam).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Utrecht home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Utrecht play FC Volendam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Utrecht's games and 61% of FC Volendam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Utrecht vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Utrecht's recent games and 55% of FC Volendam's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Utrecht and FC Volendam tend to score early?
Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Utrecht's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Utrecht and FC Volendam finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Galgenwaard, Regular Season - 27, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Utrecht 1.57 xG and FC Volendam 0.88 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Utrecht fell 1.6 short of their projected output. FC Volendam landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utrecht attack 0.83 / defence 0.96 against FC Volendam attack 0.70 / defence 1.23, drawn from 60/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Utrecht 52% | Draw 29% | FC Volendam 19%, with Utrecht to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Utrecht 61%, FC Volendam 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Utrecht's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Volendam's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Utrecht 1.42 PPG, FC Volendam 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Utrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. FC Volendam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.