Sparta Rotterdam 2-1 Groningen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sparta Rotterdam at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sparta Rotterdam vs Groningen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sparta Rotterdam and Groningen meet at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 September 2022 at 15:30 UTC.
Form
Sparta Rotterdam (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Sparta Rotterdam have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sparta Rotterdam at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Groningen's overall Eredivisie record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Groningen have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Groningen's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Sparta Rotterdam's 1.70 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Groningen's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Sparta Rotterdam, 0 for Groningen and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 May 2022, ended 2–1 with Sparta Rotterdam winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Sparta Rotterdam goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Groningen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Rotterdam 42% versus Groningen 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Rotterdam 42% | Groningen 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Rotterdam 1.88 xG and Groningen 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.006 / defence 0.899 | Groningen attack 0.943 / defence 1.126. League average goals — home 1.659 / away 1.373. Data: 40 Sparta Rotterdam games / 40 Groningen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 54% | Draw 22% | Groningen 23%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Rotterdam 1.85 | Draw 4.55 | Groningen 4.35. Sparta Rotterdam hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sparta Rotterdam as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sparta Rotterdam if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Sparta Rotterdam 40% | Groningen 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Rotterdam vs Groningen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Sep 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 54% | Draw 22% | Groningen 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 58% | xG Sparta Rotterdam 1.88 / Groningen 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.006 / def 0.899 | Groningen attack 0.943 / def 1.126 | league avg home 1.659 / away 1.373 • Poisson stance: Sparta Rotterdam (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Groningen xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Rotterdam vs Groningen kick off?
Sparta Rotterdam vs Groningen kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 17 September 2022 at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel.
What was the final score in Sparta Rotterdam vs Groningen?
Sparta Rotterdam 2 - 1 Groningen.
Where is Sparta Rotterdam vs Groningen being played?
The match is being played at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel.
What competition is Sparta Rotterdam vs Groningen part of?
Sparta Rotterdam vs Groningen is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Rotterdam vs Groningen?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Rotterdam a 54% chance of winning, Groningen a 23% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Sparta Rotterdam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Rotterdam vs Groningen?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Sparta Rotterdam and Groningen will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Rotterdam vs Groningen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and Groningen?
Record (2 meetings): Sparta Rotterdam 1W | Draws 1 | Groningen 0W.
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and Groningen in?
Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Groningen (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sparta Rotterdam's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Groningen's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.88. Flip it around — Groningen's attack (0.94x) against Sparta Rotterdam's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Rotterdam Win
54%
1.85
22%
4.44
23%
4.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Total xG
3.04
1.16
Groningen xG
1.85
54%
Home win
4.44
22%
Draw
4.27
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
15%
6.55
Win to Nil
17%
5.92
4%
27.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 10.4 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Rotterdam vs Groningen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Sparta Rotterdam and Groningen expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Sparta Rotterdam and 1.16 for Groningen, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Rotterdam vs Groningen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sparta Rotterdam's recent record stands at 10W 12D 18L from 40 games, a 1.05 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Sparta Rotterdam, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Groningen, meanwhile, have gone 11W 11D 18L across 40 games — 1.10 PPG, with L-W-D-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Groningen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.05 PPG for Sparta Rotterdam against 1.10 for Groningen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Sparta Rotterdam have managed 5W 7D 8L from 20 games — 1.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Groningen's away record stands at 6W 4D 10L across 20 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Sparta Rotterdam are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Groningen are on 1.18 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Groningen in 62%.
Last 40 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Rotterdam
Early Season
Groningen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and Groningen in coming into this match?
Sparta Rotterdam have gone 10W 12D 18L in their last 40 games (1.05 PPG), while Groningen have gone 11W 11D 18L in their last 40 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Rotterdam at home or Groningen away?
Sparta Rotterdam's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Rotterdam at home: 1.10 PPG; Groningen away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Sparta Rotterdam have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Rotterdam won 0-5 on 28 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sparta Rotterdam have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Groningen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Sparta Rotterdam
1
Draws
1
Groningen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and Groningen?
From 8 meetings on record, Sparta Rotterdam have won 6, Groningen have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Rotterdam and Groningen last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Sparta Rotterdam 2-0 Groningen.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Rotterdam and Groningen?
Sparta Rotterdam have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Rotterdam 50%, Groningen 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Sparta Rotterdam) and 65% (Groningen).
On the defensive side: Sparta Rotterdam have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Rotterdam home games / Groningen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Rotterdam play Groningen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Sparta Rotterdam's games and 70% of Groningen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sparta Rotterdam vs Groningen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Sparta Rotterdam's recent games and 65% of Groningen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sparta Rotterdam and Groningen tend to score early?
Sparta Rotterdam have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Groningen in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sparta Rotterdam edge out Groningen 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Rotterdam beat Groningen 2-1 at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, Regular Season - 7, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Rotterdam 1.88 xG and Groningen 1.16 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.01 / defence 0.90 against Groningen attack 0.94 / defence 1.13, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Rotterdam 54% | Draw 22% | Groningen 23%, with Sparta Rotterdam to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Rotterdam 42%, Groningen 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Groningen's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sparta Rotterdam 1.05 PPG, Groningen 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sparta Rotterdam win broke the near-deadlock. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.