Sparta Rotterdam 0-4 Cambuur – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Sparta Rotterdam at 69%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sparta Rotterdam vs Cambuur fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel plays host to Sparta Rotterdam versus Cambuur in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Sunday 26 September 2021 at 11:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sparta Rotterdam have collected 1.00 PPG across 6 Eredivisie outings this season: 1W 3D 2L. Last five: D L W D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Sparta Rotterdam have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, Sparta Rotterdam have gone 1W 2D 0L this season (3 games, 1.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.67 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Sparta Rotterdam are significantly better at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel than their overall form suggests.
Cambuur's overall Eredivisie record this term: 3W 0D 3L from 6 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.83 per game and conceding 3.00. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Cambuur have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cambuur arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using overall form) — Sparta Rotterdam have seen both teams score in 100% of their games, Cambuur in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Sparta Rotterdam — key trading statistics (6 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Cambuur — key trading statistics (6 games): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sparta Rotterdam 67% and Cambuur 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Rotterdam 33% | Cambuur 83%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Rotterdam 2.50 xG and Cambuur 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.961 / defence 1.074 | Cambuur attack 0.680 / defence 1.957. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.412. Cambuur bring a strong defensive rating of 1.957 — this is suppressing Sparta Rotterdam's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Sparta Rotterdam games / 6 Cambuur games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 69% | Draw 17% | Cambuur 14%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Rotterdam 1.45 | Draw 5.88 | Cambuur 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Sparta Rotterdam (69%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.54. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.54 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sparta Rotterdam are the pick at 69% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cambuur (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results.
The Poisson model projects 3.54 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sparta Rotterdam 100% | Cambuur 67% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Rotterdam vs Cambuur | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Sep 2021, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 69% | Draw 17% | Cambuur 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 59% | xG Sparta Rotterdam 2.50 / Cambuur 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.961 / def 1.074 | Cambuur attack 0.680 / def 1.957 | league avg home 1.331 / away 1.412 • Poisson stance: Sparta Rotterdam (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.50
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Cambuur xG
59%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Rotterdam vs Cambuur kick off?
Sparta Rotterdam vs Cambuur kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 26 September 2021 at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel.
What was the final score in Sparta Rotterdam vs Cambuur?
Sparta Rotterdam 0 - 4 Cambuur.
Where is Sparta Rotterdam vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel.
What competition is Sparta Rotterdam vs Cambuur part of?
Sparta Rotterdam vs Cambuur is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Rotterdam vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Rotterdam a 69% chance of winning, Cambuur a 14% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Sparta Rotterdam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Rotterdam vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Sparta Rotterdam and Cambuur will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Rotterdam vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and Cambuur?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and Cambuur in?
Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 1W-3D-2L in 6 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.67 | L5 D-L-W-D-D. Cambuur (all comps): 3W-0D-3L in 6 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.83 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sparta Rotterdam's attack at 0.96x the league average against Cambuur's defence at 1.96x — combine the two and it projects 2.50 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cambuur's attack (0.68x) against Sparta Rotterdam's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (9.1%), 1-1 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Rotterdam Win
69%
1.44
17%
5.90
14%
7.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.1%
Home win
3 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.50
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Total xG
3.54
1.03
Cambuur xG
1.44
69%
Home win
5.90
17%
Draw
7.34
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
8%
12.23
Win to Nil
25%
4.04
1%
89.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.3 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.6 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Rotterdam vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Sparta Rotterdam and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 2.50 expected goals for Sparta Rotterdam and 1.03 for Cambuur, a combined total of 3.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Rotterdam vs Cambuur?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sparta Rotterdam come into this having played 6 games, going 1W 3D 2L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-D. It's still early in the season for Sparta Rotterdam, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Cambuur sit at 1.50 PPG from 6 outings (3W 0D 3L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Cambuur, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cambuur carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Sparta Rotterdam — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sparta Rotterdam are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 1.83 scored and 3.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sparta Rotterdam have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Cambuur in 67%.
Last 6 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Rotterdam
Early Season
Cambuur
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and Cambuur in coming into this match?
Sparta Rotterdam have gone 1W 3D 2L in their last 6 games (1.00 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 3W 0D 3L in their last 6 (1.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Sparta Rotterdam go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cambuur won 0-4 on 26 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sparta Rotterdam have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cambuur — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Sparta Rotterdam
1
Draws
1
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and Cambuur?
From 4 meetings on record, Sparta Rotterdam have won 2, Cambuur have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Rotterdam and Cambuur last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2023, when Sparta Rotterdam 4-1 Cambuur.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Rotterdam and Cambuur?
Sparta Rotterdam have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Sparta Rotterdam, 67% for Cambuur — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Sparta Rotterdam) and 83% (Cambuur). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sparta Rotterdam have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Rotterdam home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Rotterdam play Cambuur?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Sparta Rotterdam's games and 67% of Cambuur's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sparta Rotterdam vs Cambuur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Sparta Rotterdam's matches and 83% of Cambuur's.
Do Sparta Rotterdam and Cambuur tend to score early?
Sparta Rotterdam have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Cambuur in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Cambuur run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Sparta Rotterdam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambuur beat Sparta Rotterdam 0-4 at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, Regular Season - 7, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Rotterdam 2.50 xG and Cambuur 1.03 xG, a combined 3.54. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Sparta Rotterdam fell 2.5 short of their projected output. Cambuur outscored their 1.03 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.96 / defence 1.07 against Cambuur attack 0.68 / defence 1.96, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Rotterdam 69% | Draw 17% | Cambuur 14%, with Sparta Rotterdam to win its most likely call at 69%. Instead the game produced a Cambuur win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Rotterdam 33%, Cambuur 83%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cambuur's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Cambuur arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sparta Rotterdam managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cambuur scored 4 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.