Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours AZ Alkmaar (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sparta Rotterdam face AZ Alkmaar.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees AZ Alkmaar travel to Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel to take on Sparta Rotterdam. The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 November 2026, 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Sparta Rotterdam have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.50 conceded. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Rotterdam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sparta Rotterdam's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
AZ Alkmaar — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AZ Alkmaar's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. AZ Alkmaar are 1.20 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
AZ Alkmaar have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the last 10 encounters against Sparta Rotterdam's 2 victories.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Feb 2026, ended 1–3 with AZ Alkmaar winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. AZ Alkmaar have won 6 of 10 previous encounters, and at 2.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Sparta Rotterdam in-play and half-time data (43 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
AZ Alkmaar in-play and half-time data (43 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Rotterdam 51% versus AZ Alkmaar 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Rotterdam 60% | AZ Alkmaar 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Rotterdam 1.32 xG and AZ Alkmaar 2.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.906 / defence 1.203 | AZ Alkmaar attack 1.019 / defence 0.859. League average goals — home 1.703 / away 1.782. Data: 43 Sparta Rotterdam games / 42 AZ Alkmaar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 21% | Draw 23% | AZ Alkmaar 56%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Rotterdam 4.76 | Draw 4.35 | AZ Alkmaar 1.79. The model has a clear lean to AZ Alkmaar (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.51. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.51 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.32 / 2.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.51 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Sparta Rotterdam 60% | AZ Alkmaar 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Nov 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 21% | Draw 23% | AZ Alkmaar 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 67% | xG Sparta Rotterdam 1.32 / AZ Alkmaar 2.19 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.906 / def 1.203 | AZ Alkmaar attack 1.019 / def 0.859 | league avg home 1.703 / away 1.782 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Expected Goals
2.19
AZ Alkmaar xG
67%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar kick off?
Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar is scheduled to kick off at 13:30 on Sunday 22 November 2026 at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel.
Where is Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar being played?
The match is being played at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel.
What competition is Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar part of?
Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Rotterdam a 21% chance of winning, AZ Alkmaar a 56% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Sparta Rotterdam and AZ Alkmaar will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and AZ Alkmaar?
Record (10 meetings): Sparta Rotterdam 2W | Draws 2 | AZ Alkmaar 6W.
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and AZ Alkmaar in?
Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.50 | L5 D-L-L-D-W. AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sparta Rotterdam's attack rating (0.91) and AZ Alkmaar's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, AZ Alkmaar's attack versus Sparta Rotterdam's defence, projects 2.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
21%
4.70
23%
4.33
56%
1.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
0 – 2
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Total xG
3.51
2.19
AZ Alkmaar xG
4.70
21%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
1.80
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
2.99
Clean Sheet
11%
8.89
27%
3.76
Win to Nil
2%
41.80
15%
6.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 6.5 | 7.1 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 8.7 | 9.5 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.7 | 6.3 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Sparta Rotterdam and AZ Alkmaar expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Sparta Rotterdam and 2.19 for AZ Alkmaar, a combined total of 3.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 43 outings, Sparta Rotterdam have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 14W 10D 19L record — D-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Sparta Rotterdam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AZ Alkmaar's form line: 20W 12D 11L from 43 games, 1.67 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-D. The sample for AZ Alkmaar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, AZ Alkmaar are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sparta Rotterdam.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sparta Rotterdam have posted 1.27 PPG from 22 outings (7W 7D 8L).
On the road, AZ Alkmaar have gone 9W 4D 9L from 22 away games — 1.41 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Sparta Rotterdam are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.95 conceded per game recently; AZ Alkmaar are on 1.81 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AZ Alkmaar in 63%.
Last 43 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Rotterdam
Blended
AZ Alkmaar
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and AZ Alkmaar in coming into this match?
Sparta Rotterdam have gone 14W 10D 19L in their last 43 games (1.21 PPG), while AZ Alkmaar have gone 20W 12D 11L in their last 43 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Rotterdam at home or AZ Alkmaar away?
AZ Alkmaar's away record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Rotterdam at home: 1.27 PPG; AZ Alkmaar away: 1.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
AZ Alkmaar have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Sparta Rotterdam's record when hosting AZ Alkmaar specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sparta Rotterdam
2
Draws
6
AZ Alkmaar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and AZ Alkmaar?
From 10 meetings on record, Sparta Rotterdam have won 2, AZ Alkmaar have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Rotterdam and AZ Alkmaar last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when AZ Alkmaar 3-1 Sparta Rotterdam.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Rotterdam and AZ Alkmaar?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Rotterdam 50%, AZ Alkmaar 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Sparta Rotterdam) and 54% (AZ Alkmaar).
On the defensive side: Sparta Rotterdam have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Rotterdam home games / AZ Alkmaar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Rotterdam play AZ Alkmaar?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Sparta Rotterdam's recent matches and 54% of AZ Alkmaar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Sparta Rotterdam's recent games and 54% of AZ Alkmaar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sparta Rotterdam and AZ Alkmaar tend to score early?
Sparta Rotterdam have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, AZ Alkmaar in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.