PSV Eindhoven 4-1 Cambuur – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PSV Eindhoven at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PSV Eindhoven vs Cambuur encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Cambuur travel to Philips Stadion to take on PSV Eindhoven. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 August 2021, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, PSV Eindhoven have gone 1W 0D 0L from 1 outings — a 3.00 PPG return. Last five: W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. PSV Eindhoven have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cambuur — All Games: 0W 0D 1L from 1 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Cambuur have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
PSV Eindhoven are in the better shape of the two on current Eredivisie data — 3.00 PPG ahead (3.00 vs 0.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PSV Eindhoven 1.28 xG and Cambuur 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PSV Eindhoven attack 0.973 / defence 1.150 | Cambuur attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.142 / away 1.181. Data: 1 PSV Eindhoven games / 1 Cambuur games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: PSV Eindhoven 39% | Draw 27% | Cambuur 33%. Fair-value odds: PSV Eindhoven 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | Cambuur 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates PSV Eindhoven as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PSV Eindhoven offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PSV Eindhoven vs Cambuur | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Philips Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Aug 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PSV Eindhoven 39% | Draw 27% | Cambuur 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG PSV Eindhoven 1.28 / Cambuur 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: PSV Eindhoven attack 0.973 / def 1.150 | Cambuur attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.142 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: PSV Eindhoven (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
PSV Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Cambuur xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PSV Eindhoven vs Cambuur kick off?
PSV Eindhoven vs Cambuur kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 21 August 2021 at Philips Stadion.
What was the final score in PSV Eindhoven vs Cambuur?
PSV Eindhoven 4 - 1 Cambuur.
Where is PSV Eindhoven vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at Philips Stadion.
What competition is PSV Eindhoven vs Cambuur part of?
PSV Eindhoven vs Cambuur is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PSV Eindhoven vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives PSV Eindhoven a 39% chance of winning, Cambuur a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making PSV Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in PSV Eindhoven vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both PSV Eindhoven and Cambuur will score (BTTS).
Will PSV Eindhoven vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between PSV Eindhoven and Cambuur?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are PSV Eindhoven and Cambuur in?
PSV Eindhoven (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W. Cambuur (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
PSV Eindhoven's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Cambuur's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. The same calculation in reverse, Cambuur's attack versus PSV Eindhoven's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PSV Eindhoven Win
39%
2.55
27%
3.65
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
PSV Eindhoven xG
Total xG
2.43
1.16
Cambuur xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
12%
8.08
9%
10.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 10.1 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.0 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PSV Eindhoven vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are PSV Eindhoven and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for PSV Eindhoven and 1.16 for Cambuur, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for PSV Eindhoven vs Cambuur?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
PSV Eindhoven's recent record stands at 1W 0D 0L from 1 games, a 3.00 PPG return, with W in the last five. It's still early in the season for PSV Eindhoven, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cambuur, meanwhile, have gone 0W 0D 1L across 1 games — 0.00 PPG, with L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Cambuur, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours PSV Eindhoven by 3.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cambuur heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
PSV Eindhoven are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PSV Eindhoven have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Cambuur in 100%.
Defensively: PSV Eindhoven have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PSV Eindhoven
Early Season
Cambuur
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PSV Eindhoven and Cambuur in coming into this match?
PSV Eindhoven have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
Have PSV Eindhoven or Cambuur been keeping clean sheets recently?
PSV Eindhoven have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Cambuur in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Aug 2021, when PSV Eindhoven won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PSV Eindhoven's record when hosting Cambuur specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
PSV Eindhoven
0
Draws
1
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PSV Eindhoven and Cambuur?
From 4 meetings on record, PSV Eindhoven have won 3, Cambuur have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did PSV Eindhoven and Cambuur last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2023, when PSV Eindhoven 5-2 Cambuur.
Who has won more matches between PSV Eindhoven and Cambuur?
PSV Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PSV Eindhoven home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PSV Eindhoven play Cambuur?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of PSV Eindhoven's recent matches and 100% of Cambuur's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PSV Eindhoven vs Cambuur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of PSV Eindhoven's recent games and 100% of Cambuur's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PSV Eindhoven and Cambuur tend to score early?
PSV Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Cambuur in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant PSV Eindhoven run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Cambuur.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PSV Eindhoven beat Cambuur 4-1 at Philips Stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PSV Eindhoven 1.28 xG and Cambuur 1.16 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. PSV Eindhoven beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PSV Eindhoven attack 0.97 / defence 1.15 against Cambuur attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it PSV Eindhoven 39% | Draw 27% | Cambuur 33%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PSV Eindhoven 0%, Cambuur 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. That form edge translated into the three points. PSV Eindhoven scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cambuur shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.