PEC Zwolle 3-1 Fortuna Sittard – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PEC Zwolle at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this PEC Zwolle vs Fortuna Sittard fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
MAC³PARK Stadion plays host to PEC Zwolle versus Fortuna Sittard in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Saturday 9 November 2024 at 17:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
PEC Zwolle have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PEC Zwolle at MAC³PARK Stadion this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Fortuna Sittard's overall Eredivisie record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Sittard, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Fortuna Sittard have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: PEC Zwolle 2W, Fortuna Sittard 2W, 0D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Mar 2024, ended 1–3 with Fortuna Sittard winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
PEC Zwolle goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Fortuna Sittard goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PEC Zwolle 64% versus Fortuna Sittard 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PEC Zwolle 62% | Fortuna Sittard 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 1.40 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 0.867 / defence 1.251 | Fortuna Sittard attack 0.716 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.677 / away 1.218. Data: 45 PEC Zwolle games / 45 Fortuna Sittard games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 44% | Draw 27% | Fortuna Sittard 29%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Fortuna Sittard 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, PEC Zwolle are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PEC Zwolle if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: PEC Zwolle 80% | Fortuna Sittard 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs Fortuna Sittard | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Nov 2024, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 44% | Draw 27% | Fortuna Sittard 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG PEC Zwolle 1.40 / Fortuna Sittard 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 0.867 / def 1.251 | Fortuna Sittard attack 0.716 / def 0.964 | league avg home 1.677 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: PEC Zwolle (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Fortuna Sittard xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PEC Zwolle vs Fortuna Sittard kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs Fortuna Sittard kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 9 November 2024 at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What was the final score in PEC Zwolle vs Fortuna Sittard?
PEC Zwolle 3 - 1 Fortuna Sittard.
Where is PEC Zwolle vs Fortuna Sittard being played?
The match is being played at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs Fortuna Sittard part of?
PEC Zwolle vs Fortuna Sittard is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 44% chance of winning, Fortuna Sittard a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making PEC Zwolle the favourite.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both PEC Zwolle and Fortuna Sittard will score (BTTS).
Will PEC Zwolle vs Fortuna Sittard have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Fortuna Sittard?
Record (4 meetings): PEC Zwolle 2W | Draws 0 | Fortuna Sittard 2W.
What form are PEC Zwolle and Fortuna Sittard in?
PEC Zwolle (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. Fortuna Sittard (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about PEC Zwolle vs Fortuna Sittard?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from PEC Zwolle's attack rating (0.87) and Fortuna Sittard's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fortuna Sittard's attack (0.72x) against PEC Zwolle's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PEC Zwolle Win
44%
2.27
27%
3.75
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
2.49
1.09
Fortuna Sittard xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
15%
6.75
7%
13.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.6 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.9 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and Fortuna Sittard expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 1.09 for Fortuna Sittard, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs Fortuna Sittard?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
PEC Zwolle come into this having played 45 games, going 11W 12D 22L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-D. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fortuna Sittard sit at 1.22 PPG from 45 outings (14W 13D 18L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Fortuna Sittard is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for PEC Zwolle against 1.22 for Fortuna Sittard. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
PEC Zwolle's home form reads 7W 3D 12L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.09 PPG return.
Away from home, Fortuna Sittard have taken 0.73 points per game from 22 outings (3W 7D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.22 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fortuna Sittard's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PEC Zwolle are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.96 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Sittard are on 1.09 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PEC Zwolle have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 45 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Blended
Fortuna Sittard
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PEC Zwolle and Fortuna Sittard in coming into this match?
PEC Zwolle have gone 11W 12D 22L in their last 45 games (1.00 PPG), while Fortuna Sittard have gone 14W 13D 18L in their last 45 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PEC Zwolle at home or Fortuna Sittard away?
PEC Zwolle's home record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PEC Zwolle at home: 1.09 PPG; Fortuna Sittard away: 0.73 PPG.
Have PEC Zwolle or Fortuna Sittard been keeping clean sheets recently?
PEC Zwolle have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Fortuna Sittard in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PEC Zwolle won 1-4 on 26 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PEC Zwolle have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fortuna Sittard — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
PEC Zwolle
0
Draws
3
Fortuna Sittard
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Fortuna Sittard?
From 8 meetings on record, PEC Zwolle have won 5, Fortuna Sittard have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and Fortuna Sittard last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Fortuna Sittard 3-2 PEC Zwolle.
Who has won more matches between PEC Zwolle and Fortuna Sittard?
PEC Zwolle have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Fortuna Sittard see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PEC Zwolle 64%, Fortuna Sittard 27% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (PEC Zwolle) and 50% (Fortuna Sittard). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fortuna Sittard in 32%; Fortuna Sittard in 59%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / Fortuna Sittard away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PEC Zwolle play Fortuna Sittard?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of PEC Zwolle's recent matches and 27% of Fortuna Sittard's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PEC Zwolle vs Fortuna Sittard usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of PEC Zwolle's matches and 50% of Fortuna Sittard's.
Do PEC Zwolle and Fortuna Sittard tend to score early?
PEC Zwolle have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Fortuna Sittard in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PEC Zwolle cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Fortuna Sittard.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PEC Zwolle beat Fortuna Sittard 3-1 at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 1.40 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.09 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. PEC Zwolle beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 0.87 / defence 1.25 against Fortuna Sittard attack 0.72 / defence 0.96, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 44% | Draw 27% | Fortuna Sittard 29%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 62%, Fortuna Sittard 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PEC Zwolle 1.00 PPG, Fortuna Sittard 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PEC Zwolle win broke the near-deadlock. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.