PEC Zwolle 1-2 Cambuur – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PEC Zwolle at 38%, yet in-form Cambuur provide a compelling counter-argument — this PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 12 as PEC Zwolle welcome Cambuur to MAC³PARK Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 November 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, PEC Zwolle have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PEC Zwolle's form when playing at home: 1W 1D 3L across 5 games at MAC³PARK Stadion this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Cambuur — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.30. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambuur's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 3L across 5 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Cambuur's 1.50 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of PEC Zwolle's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using home/away splits). PEC Zwolle's 20% and Cambuur's 20% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
In-Play Data
PEC Zwolle trading profile (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
Cambuur trading profile (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PEC Zwolle 36% versus Cambuur 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PEC Zwolle 27% | Cambuur 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 1.21 xG and Cambuur 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 0.615 / defence 1.023 | Cambuur attack 0.798 / defence 1.429. League average goals — home 1.376 / away 1.376. PEC Zwolle's attack strength of 0.615 is below the league average — the 1.21 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Cambuur bring a strong defensive rating of 1.429 — this is suppressing PEC Zwolle's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 PEC Zwolle games / 11 Cambuur games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 38% | Draw 28% | Cambuur 34%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Cambuur 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates PEC Zwolle as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cambuur (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PEC Zwolle offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: PEC Zwolle 20% | Cambuur 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 38% | Draw 28% | Cambuur 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG PEC Zwolle 1.21 / Cambuur 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 0.615 / def 1.023 | Cambuur attack 0.798 / def 1.429 | league avg home 1.376 / away 1.376 • Poisson stance: PEC Zwolle (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Cambuur xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What was the final score in PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur?
PEC Zwolle 1 - 2 Cambuur.
Where is PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur part of?
PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 38% chance of winning, Cambuur a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making PEC Zwolle the favourite.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both PEC Zwolle and Cambuur will score (BTTS).
Will PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Cambuur?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are PEC Zwolle and Cambuur in?
PEC Zwolle (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Cambuur (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from PEC Zwolle's attack rating (0.61) and Cambuur's defence rating (1.43), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cambuur's attack versus PEC Zwolle's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PEC Zwolle Win
38%
2.63
28%
3.56
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
2.33
1.12
Cambuur xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
12%
8.09
10%
9.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 10.9 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.2 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 1.12 for Cambuur, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
PEC Zwolle come into this having played 11 games, going 1W 1D 9L for 0.36 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cambuur sit at 1.36 PPG from 11 outings (5W 0D 6L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cambuur carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of PEC Zwolle — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
PEC Zwolle's home form reads 1W 1D 3L across 5 games on their own ground, a 0.80 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.36 PPG overall — PEC Zwolle are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Cambuur have taken 1.20 points per game from 5 outings (2W 0D 3L).
Goals in Recent Form
PEC Zwolle are averaging 0.55 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 1.73 scored and 2.27 conceded.
Last 11 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Blended
Cambuur
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PEC Zwolle and Cambuur in coming into this match?
PEC Zwolle have gone 1W 1D 9L in their last 11 games (0.36 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 5W 0D 6L in their last 11 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PEC Zwolle at home or Cambuur away?
Cambuur's away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PEC Zwolle at home: 0.80 PPG; Cambuur away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
PEC Zwolle
0
Draws
1
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Cambuur?
From 2 meetings on record, PEC Zwolle have won 1, Cambuur have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and Cambuur last play each other?
They last met on 12 February 2022, when Cambuur 3-4 PEC Zwolle.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — PEC Zwolle 20% BTTS, Cambuur 20%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for PEC Zwolle and 60% for Cambuur.
On the defensive side: Cambuur in 40%; PEC Zwolle have failed to score in 60% of games; Cambuur in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PEC Zwolle play Cambuur?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of PEC Zwolle's recent matches and 20% of Cambuur's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of PEC Zwolle's recent games and 60% of Cambuur's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PEC Zwolle and Cambuur tend to score early?
PEC Zwolle have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Cambuur in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cambuur defy the odds to beat PEC Zwolle 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambuur beat PEC Zwolle 1-2 at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 1.21 xG and Cambuur 1.12 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Cambuur outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 0.61 / defence 1.02 against Cambuur attack 0.80 / defence 1.43, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 38% | Draw 28% | Cambuur 34%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Cambuur win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 27%, Cambuur 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.
Cambuur's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cambuur arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.36. Form held, and they took the win. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cambuur (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.