PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates PEC Zwolle at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 8 as PEC Zwolle welcome Cambuur to . Kick-off is set for Sunday 11 October 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, PEC Zwolle have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. PEC Zwolle have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
PEC Zwolle's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — PEC Zwolle are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Cambuur — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Cambuur have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cambuur's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (PEC Zwolle) versus 0.80 (Cambuur). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. PEC Zwolle register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Cambuur in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for PEC Zwolle, 1 for Cambuur and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Feb 2022, ended 4–3 with PEC Zwolle winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
PEC Zwolle trading profile (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 88% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Cambuur trading profile (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — PEC Zwolle 66% and Cambuur 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PEC Zwolle 60% | Cambuur 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 1.77 xG and Cambuur 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 0.813 / defence 0.972 | Cambuur attack 0.780 / defence 1.302. League average goals — home 1.674 / away 1.880. Cambuur bring a strong defensive rating of 1.302 — this is suppressing PEC Zwolle's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 PEC Zwolle games / 4 Cambuur games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 45% | Draw 24% | Cambuur 31%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 2.22 | Draw 4.17 | Cambuur 3.23. PEC Zwolle hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.77 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates PEC Zwolle as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PEC Zwolle offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.20 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: PEC Zwolle 60% | Cambuur 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 45% | Draw 24% | Cambuur 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG PEC Zwolle 1.77 / Cambuur 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 0.813 / def 0.972 | Cambuur attack 0.780 / def 1.302 | league avg home 1.674 / away 1.880 • Poisson stance: PEC Zwolle (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Cambuur xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur is scheduled to kick off at 12:30 on Sunday 11 October 2026.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur part of?
PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 45% chance of winning, Cambuur a 31% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making PEC Zwolle the favourite.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both PEC Zwolle and Cambuur will score (BTTS).
Will PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Cambuur?
Record (2 meetings): PEC Zwolle 1W | Draws 0 | Cambuur 1W.
What form are PEC Zwolle and Cambuur in?
PEC Zwolle (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Cambuur (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from PEC Zwolle's attack rating (0.81) and Cambuur's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 1.77 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cambuur's attack versus PEC Zwolle's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PEC Zwolle Win
45%
2.21
24%
4.13
31%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
3.20
1.43
Cambuur xG
2.21
45%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
3.28
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.75
Clean Sheet
24%
4.16
17%
5.89
Win to Nil
11%
9.19
5%
19.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.8 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.3 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.1 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.4 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 1.43 for Cambuur, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
PEC Zwolle come into this having played 38 games, going 10W 10D 18L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Cambuur sit at 1.82 PPG from 38 outings (20W 9D 9L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Cambuur, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cambuur carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.77 PPG clear of PEC Zwolle — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
PEC Zwolle's home form reads 7W 4D 7L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.39 PPG return.
Away from home, Cambuur have taken 1.72 points per game from 18 outings (9W 4D 5L).
Goals in Recent Form
PEC Zwolle are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 2.08 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 1.95 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PEC Zwolle have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; Cambuur in 71%.
Last 38 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Early Season
Cambuur
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PEC Zwolle and Cambuur in coming into this match?
PEC Zwolle have gone 10W 10D 18L in their last 38 games (1.05 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 20W 9D 9L in their last 38 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PEC Zwolle at home or Cambuur away?
Cambuur's away record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PEC Zwolle at home: 1.39 PPG; Cambuur away: 1.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
PEC Zwolle
0
Draws
1
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Cambuur?
From 2 meetings on record, PEC Zwolle have won 1, Cambuur have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and Cambuur last play each other?
They last met on 12 February 2022, when Cambuur 3-4 PEC Zwolle.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PEC Zwolle 50%, Cambuur 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (PEC Zwolle) and 67% (Cambuur). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PEC Zwolle have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PEC Zwolle play Cambuur?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of PEC Zwolle's games and 72% of Cambuur's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of PEC Zwolle's matches and 67% of Cambuur's.
Do PEC Zwolle and Cambuur tend to score early?
PEC Zwolle have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Cambuur in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.