PEC Zwolle 3-1 AZ Alkmaar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PEC Zwolle at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
PEC Zwolle and AZ Alkmaar meet at MAC³PARK Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 January 2026 at 17:45 UTC.
Form
PEC Zwolle (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.40 conceded. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at MAC³PARK Stadion, PEC Zwolle have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
AZ Alkmaar have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L L D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AZ Alkmaar away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for PEC Zwolle against 1.60 for AZ Alkmaar. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to AZ Alkmaar, who have claimed 4 wins from 7 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.4 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. AZ Alkmaar have won 4 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
PEC Zwolle — key trading statistics (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
AZ Alkmaar — key trading statistics (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — PEC Zwolle 58% and AZ Alkmaar 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PEC Zwolle 50% | AZ Alkmaar 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 1.40 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 0.821 / defence 0.886 | AZ Alkmaar attack 1.025 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 1.662 / away 1.405. Data: 52 PEC Zwolle games / 51 AZ Alkmaar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 40% | Draw 26% | AZ Alkmaar 34%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | AZ Alkmaar 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PEC Zwolle at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PEC Zwolle if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: PEC Zwolle 30% | AZ Alkmaar 60%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Jan 2026, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 40% | Draw 26% | AZ Alkmaar 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG PEC Zwolle 1.40 / AZ Alkmaar 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 0.821 / def 0.886 | AZ Alkmaar attack 1.025 / def 1.027 | league avg home 1.662 / away 1.405 • Poisson stance: PEC Zwolle (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
1.27
AZ Alkmaar xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 17 January 2026 at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What was the final score in PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar?
PEC Zwolle 3 - 1 AZ Alkmaar.
Where is PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar being played?
The match is being played at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar part of?
PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 40% chance of winning, AZ Alkmaar a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making PEC Zwolle the favourite.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both PEC Zwolle and AZ Alkmaar will score (BTTS).
Will PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and AZ Alkmaar?
Record (7 meetings): PEC Zwolle 1W | Draws 2 | AZ Alkmaar 4W.
What form are PEC Zwolle and AZ Alkmaar in?
PEC Zwolle (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates PEC Zwolle's attack at 0.82x the league average against AZ Alkmaar's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AZ Alkmaar's attack (1.02x) against PEC Zwolle's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 52/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PEC Zwolle Win
40%
2.50
26%
3.86
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
2.68
1.27
AZ Alkmaar xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
11%
8.95
8%
11.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.8 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.3 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.6 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and AZ Alkmaar expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 1.27 for AZ Alkmaar, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 52 outings, PEC Zwolle have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 15W 16D 21L record — W-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AZ Alkmaar's form line: 25W 13D 14L from 52 games, 1.69 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W. The sample for AZ Alkmaar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, AZ Alkmaar are the form team by 0.52 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against PEC Zwolle.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, PEC Zwolle have posted 1.52 PPG from 25 outings (11W 5D 9L).
On the road, AZ Alkmaar have gone 11W 6D 8L from 25 away games — 1.56 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PEC Zwolle are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; AZ Alkmaar are on 1.85 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AZ Alkmaar in 63%.
Last 52 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Blended
AZ Alkmaar
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PEC Zwolle and AZ Alkmaar in coming into this match?
PEC Zwolle have gone 15W 16D 21L in their last 52 games (1.17 PPG), while AZ Alkmaar have gone 25W 13D 14L in their last 52 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PEC Zwolle at home or AZ Alkmaar away?
AZ Alkmaar's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PEC Zwolle at home: 1.52 PPG; AZ Alkmaar away: 1.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AZ Alkmaar won 0-3 on 24 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PEC Zwolle have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against AZ Alkmaar — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
PEC Zwolle
2
Draws
4
AZ Alkmaar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and AZ Alkmaar?
From 8 meetings on record, PEC Zwolle have won 2, AZ Alkmaar have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and AZ Alkmaar last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when PEC Zwolle 3-1 AZ Alkmaar.
Who has won more matches between PEC Zwolle and AZ Alkmaar?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PEC Zwolle 44%, AZ Alkmaar 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (PEC Zwolle) and 64% (AZ Alkmaar).
On the defensive side: PEC Zwolle keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; AZ Alkmaar in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / AZ Alkmaar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PEC Zwolle play AZ Alkmaar?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of PEC Zwolle's recent matches and 56% of AZ Alkmaar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of PEC Zwolle's recent games and 64% of AZ Alkmaar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PEC Zwolle and AZ Alkmaar tend to score early?
PEC Zwolle have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, AZ Alkmaar in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PEC Zwolle cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over AZ Alkmaar.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PEC Zwolle beat AZ Alkmaar 3-1 at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 1.40 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.27 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. PEC Zwolle beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 0.82 / defence 0.89 against AZ Alkmaar attack 1.02 / defence 1.03, drawn from 52/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 40% | Draw 26% | AZ Alkmaar 34%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 50%, AZ Alkmaar 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, AZ Alkmaar arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.17. Form was overturned, with PEC Zwolle winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.