NEC Nijmegen 1-1 Groningen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates NEC Nijmegen at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Groningen travel to Goffertstadion to take on NEC Nijmegen. The game is scheduled for Friday 26 August 2022, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
NEC Nijmegen — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. NEC Nijmegen have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, NEC Nijmegen have posted 1W 3D 6L at Goffertstadion — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Groningen have recorded 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Groningen have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Groningen's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, NEC Nijmegen have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.00 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for NEC Nijmegen, 1 for Groningen and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Mar 2022, ended 3–4 with Groningen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
NEC Nijmegen trading profile (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Groningen trading profile (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NEC Nijmegen 50% versus Groningen 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NEC Nijmegen 44% | Groningen 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NEC Nijmegen 1.55 xG and Groningen 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NEC Nijmegen attack 0.720 / defence 0.924 | Groningen attack 0.950 / defence 1.425. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.475. NEC Nijmegen's attack strength of 0.720 is below the league average — the 1.55 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Groningen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.425 — this is suppressing NEC Nijmegen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 NEC Nijmegen games / 37 Groningen games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 43% | Draw 25% | Groningen 32%. Fair-value odds: NEC Nijmegen 2.33 | Draw 4.00 | Groningen 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates NEC Nijmegen as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on NEC Nijmegen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: NEC Nijmegen 30% | Groningen 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Goffertstadion • Kick-off: Friday 26 Aug 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 43% | Draw 25% | Groningen 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG NEC Nijmegen 1.55 / Groningen 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: NEC Nijmegen attack 0.720 / def 0.924 | Groningen attack 0.950 / def 1.425 | league avg home 1.506 / away 1.475 • Poisson stance: NEC Nijmegen (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
NEC Nijmegen xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Groningen xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen kick off?
NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 26 August 2022 at Goffertstadion.
What was the final score in NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen?
NEC Nijmegen 1 - 1 Groningen.
Where is NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen being played?
The match is being played at Goffertstadion.
What competition is NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen part of?
NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen?
Our statistical model gives NEC Nijmegen a 43% chance of winning, Groningen a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making NEC Nijmegen the favourite.
Will both teams score in NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both NEC Nijmegen and Groningen will score (BTTS).
Will NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Groningen?
Record (2 meetings): NEC Nijmegen 1W | Draws 0 | Groningen 1W.
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Groningen in?
NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Groningen (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
NEC Nijmegen's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Groningen's defensive record (1.43x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. The same calculation in reverse, Groningen's attack versus NEC Nijmegen's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (36/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
NEC Nijmegen Win
43%
2.31
25%
4.03
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
NEC Nijmegen xG
Total xG
2.84
1.29
Groningen xG
2.31
43%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
21%
4.70
Win to Nil
12%
8.45
7%
14.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 7.6 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.7 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.0 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are NEC Nijmegen and Groningen expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.29 for Groningen, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 36 outings, NEC Nijmegen have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 11W 8D 17L record — W-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Groningen's form line: 9W 10D 17L from 36 games, 1.03 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for Groningen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: NEC Nijmegen on 1.14 PPG, Groningen on 1.03. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, NEC Nijmegen have posted 0.65 PPG from 17 outings (2W 5D 10L). That actually lags their 1.14 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Groningen have gone 4W 3D 10L from 17 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
NEC Nijmegen are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Groningen are on 1.19 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Groningen in 64%.
Last 36 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NEC Nijmegen
Early Season
Groningen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Groningen in coming into this match?
NEC Nijmegen have gone 11W 8D 17L in their last 36 games (1.14 PPG), while Groningen have gone 9W 10D 17L in their last 36 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NEC Nijmegen at home or Groningen away?
Groningen's away record (0.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NEC Nijmegen at home: 0.65 PPG; Groningen away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between NEC Nijmegen and Groningen runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Nov 2024, when NEC Nijmegen won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
NEC Nijmegen's record when hosting Groningen specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
NEC Nijmegen
1
Draws
3
Groningen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Groningen?
From 8 meetings on record, NEC Nijmegen have won 4, Groningen have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did NEC Nijmegen and Groningen last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Groningen 2-1 NEC Nijmegen.
Who has won more matches between NEC Nijmegen and Groningen?
NEC Nijmegen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
NEC Nijmegen see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NEC Nijmegen 35%, Groningen 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (NEC Nijmegen) and 71% (Groningen).
On the defensive side: NEC Nijmegen have failed to score in 53% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NEC Nijmegen home games / Groningen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NEC Nijmegen play Groningen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of NEC Nijmegen's recent matches and 71% of Groningen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of NEC Nijmegen's recent games and 71% of Groningen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do NEC Nijmegen and Groningen tend to score early?
NEC Nijmegen have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Groningen in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
NEC Nijmegen and Groningen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Goffertstadion, Regular Season - 4, as NEC Nijmegen and Groningen drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NEC Nijmegen 1.55 xG and Groningen 1.29 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEC Nijmegen attack 0.72 / defence 0.92 against Groningen attack 0.95 / defence 1.43, drawn from 36/37 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it NEC Nijmegen 43% | Draw 25% | Groningen 32%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEC Nijmegen 44%, Groningen 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Groningen's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NEC Nijmegen 1.14 PPG, Groningen 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Groningen (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.