NEC Nijmegen 3-0 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates NEC Nijmegen at 64% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this NEC Nijmegen vs FC Volendam encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
NEC Nijmegen host FC Volendam at Goffertstadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 8 March 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, NEC Nijmegen have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NEC Nijmegen's home record at Goffertstadion: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Volendam — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, FC Volendam have posted 1W 0D 9L from 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — NEC Nijmegen at 1.60 PPG versus FC Volendam's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
NEC Nijmegen hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 5 previous encounters compared to 0 for FC Volendam, with 1 draws in between.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2025, ended 3–2 with NEC Nijmegen winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both NEC Nijmegen and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 5.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
NEC Nijmegen trading profile (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
FC Volendam trading profile (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — NEC Nijmegen 63% and FC Volendam 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (NEC Nijmegen 68% | FC Volendam 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NEC Nijmegen 2.18 xG and FC Volendam 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NEC Nijmegen attack 1.208 / defence 1.224 | FC Volendam attack 0.571 / defence 1.094. League average goals — home 1.646 / away 1.391. Data: 59 NEC Nijmegen games / 25 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 64% | Draw 21% | FC Volendam 15%. Fair-value odds: NEC Nijmegen 1.56 | Draw 4.76 | FC Volendam 6.67. The model has a clear lean to NEC Nijmegen (64%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates NEC Nijmegen as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.15 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: NEC Nijmegen 90% | FC Volendam 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NEC Nijmegen vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Goffertstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Mar 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 64% | Draw 21% | FC Volendam 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 56% | xG NEC Nijmegen 2.18 / FC Volendam 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: NEC Nijmegen attack 1.208 / def 1.224 | FC Volendam attack 0.571 / def 1.094 | league avg home 1.646 / away 1.391 • Poisson stance: NEC Nijmegen (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.18
NEC Nijmegen xG
Expected Goals
0.97
FC Volendam xG
56%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NEC Nijmegen vs FC Volendam kick off?
NEC Nijmegen vs FC Volendam kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 8 March 2026 at Goffertstadion.
What was the final score in NEC Nijmegen vs FC Volendam?
NEC Nijmegen 3 - 0 FC Volendam.
Where is NEC Nijmegen vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at Goffertstadion.
What competition is NEC Nijmegen vs FC Volendam part of?
NEC Nijmegen vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NEC Nijmegen vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives NEC Nijmegen a 64% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 15% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making NEC Nijmegen the favourite.
Will both teams score in NEC Nijmegen vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both NEC Nijmegen and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will NEC Nijmegen vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and FC Volendam?
Record (5 meetings): NEC Nijmegen 4W | Draws 1 | FC Volendam 0W.
What form are NEC Nijmegen and FC Volendam in?
NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. FC Volendam (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates NEC Nijmegen's attack at 1.21x the league average against FC Volendam's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 2.18 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Volendam's attack versus NEC Nijmegen's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NEC Nijmegen Win
64%
1.56
21%
4.80
15%
6.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.18
NEC Nijmegen xG
Total xG
3.15
0.97
FC Volendam xG
1.56
64%
Home win
4.80
21%
Draw
6.65
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
11%
8.82
Win to Nil
24%
4.12
2%
58.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.3 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NEC Nijmegen vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are NEC Nijmegen and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 2.18 expected goals for NEC Nijmegen and 0.97 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for NEC Nijmegen vs FC Volendam?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
NEC Nijmegen's recent record stands at 24W 14D 22L from 60 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for NEC Nijmegen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Volendam, meanwhile, have gone 33W 10D 17L across 60 games — 1.82 PPG, with D-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: NEC Nijmegen on 1.43 PPG, FC Volendam on 1.82. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, NEC Nijmegen have managed 13W 8D 8L from 29 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Volendam's away record stands at 12W 6D 11L across 29 trips, a 1.45 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
NEC Nijmegen are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 1.87 scored and 1.37 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: NEC Nijmegen have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; FC Volendam in 63%.
Last 60 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
FC Volendam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NEC Nijmegen and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
NEC Nijmegen have gone 24W 14D 22L in their last 60 games (1.43 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 33W 10D 17L in their last 60 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NEC Nijmegen at home or FC Volendam away?
NEC Nijmegen's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NEC Nijmegen at home: 1.62 PPG; FC Volendam away: 1.45 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
NEC Nijmegen go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Aug 2022, when NEC Nijmegen won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
NEC Nijmegen's record when hosting FC Volendam specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
NEC Nijmegen
1
Draws
0
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and FC Volendam?
From 6 meetings on record, NEC Nijmegen have won 5, FC Volendam have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did NEC Nijmegen and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when NEC Nijmegen 3-0 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between NEC Nijmegen and FC Volendam?
NEC Nijmegen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — NEC Nijmegen at 76%, FC Volendam at 59%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for NEC Nijmegen and 66% for FC Volendam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Volendam in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NEC Nijmegen home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NEC Nijmegen play FC Volendam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of NEC Nijmegen's games and 59% of FC Volendam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NEC Nijmegen vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of NEC Nijmegen's matches and 66% of FC Volendam's.
Do NEC Nijmegen and FC Volendam tend to score early?
NEC Nijmegen have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant NEC Nijmegen run riot with a 3-0 hammering of FC Volendam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NEC Nijmegen beat FC Volendam 3-0 at Goffertstadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NEC Nijmegen 2.18 xG and FC Volendam 0.97 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. NEC Nijmegen beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Volendam landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEC Nijmegen attack 1.21 / defence 1.22 against FC Volendam attack 0.57 / defence 1.09, drawn from 59/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NEC Nijmegen 64% | Draw 21% | FC Volendam 15%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 64%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEC Nijmegen 68%, FC Volendam 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Volendam's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NEC Nijmegen 1.43 PPG, FC Volendam 1.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the NEC Nijmegen win broke the near-deadlock. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line. FC Volendam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.