NAC Breda 1-0 NEC Nijmegen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates NEC Nijmegen at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as NAC Breda face NEC Nijmegen.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
NEC Nijmegen make the trip to Rat Verlegh Stadion to face NAC Breda in Eredivisie (matchday 8). The match kicks off on Saturday 5 October 2024 at 18:45 UK time.
Current Form
NAC Breda's record over their last 10 games: 4W 0D 6L (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
NAC Breda at home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — NAC Breda are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
NEC Nijmegen have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, NEC Nijmegen have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
NAC Breda — key trading statistics (last 42 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
NEC Nijmegen — key trading statistics (last 42 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — NAC Breda 64% and NEC Nijmegen 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 60% | NEC Nijmegen 67%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: NAC Breda surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while NEC Nijmegen have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 46% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that NEC Nijmegen surrender HT leads in 31% of cases while NAC Breda recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.00 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 0.852 / defence 1.012 | NEC Nijmegen attack 1.056 / defence 0.763. League average goals — home 1.538 / away 1.265. NEC Nijmegen bring a tight defence (rating 0.763, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling NAC Breda's projected output down. Data: built from NAC Breda's last 7 games and NEC Nijmegen's last 41.
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 26% | Draw 31% | NEC Nijmegen 43%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 3.88 | Draw 3.19 | NEC Nijmegen 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, NEC Nijmegen are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on NEC Nijmegen if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (NAC Breda's last 10 home games and NEC Nijmegen's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: NAC Breda 80% (last 10 home games) | NEC Nijmegen 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs NEC Nijmegen | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 8 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 5 October 2024 at 18:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 26% | Draw 31% | NEC Nijmegen 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG NAC Breda 1.00 / NEC Nijmegen 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 0.852 / def 1.012 | NEC Nijmegen attack 1.056 / def 0.763 | league avg home 1.538 / away 1.265 • Poisson stance: NEC Nijmegen (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
1.35
NEC Nijmegen xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ NAC Breda vs NEC Nijmegen FAQs
What time does NAC Breda vs NEC Nijmegen kick off?
NAC Breda vs NEC Nijmegen kicked off at 18:45 UK time on Saturday 5 October 2024 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs NEC Nijmegen?
NAC Breda 1 - 0 NEC Nijmegen.
Where is NAC Breda vs NEC Nijmegen being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs NEC Nijmegen part of?
NAC Breda vs NEC Nijmegen is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 8) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 26% chance of winning, NEC Nijmegen a 43% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making NEC Nijmegen the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both NAC Breda and NEC Nijmegen will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will NAC Breda vs NEC Nijmegen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from NAC Breda's attack rating (0.85) and NEC Nijmegen's defence rating (0.76), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — NEC Nijmegen's attack (1.06x) against NAC Breda's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from NAC Breda's last 7 games and NEC Nijmegen's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.2%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NEC Nijmegen Win
26%
3.88
31%
3.19
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
9.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
2.35
1.35
NEC Nijmegen xG
3.88
26%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
7%
14.99
16%
6.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 12.9 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.9 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.4 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ NAC Breda vs NEC Nijmegen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and NEC Nijmegen expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.35 for NEC Nijmegen, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs NEC Nijmegen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
NAC Breda's recent record stands at 18W 10D 14L from 42 games, a 1.52 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-L in the last five.
NEC Nijmegen, meanwhile, have gone 16W 12D 14L across 42 games — 1.43 PPG, with W-W-L-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for NAC Breda against 1.43 for NEC Nijmegen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, NAC Breda have managed 9W 6D 5L from their last 20 home games — 1.65 PPG in front of their own supporters.
NEC Nijmegen's away record stands at 7W 7D 6L across their last 20 away games, a 1.40 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
NAC Breda are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; NEC Nijmegen are on 1.81 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NAC Breda have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; NEC Nijmegen in 64%.
Last 42 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Early Season
NEC Nijmegen
Early Season
NAC Breda (Home) vs NEC Nijmegen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
NAC Breda
Early Season
NEC Nijmegen
Early Season
❓ NAC Breda vs NEC Nijmegen Form FAQs
What form are NAC Breda and NEC Nijmegen in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 18W 10D 14L in their last 42 games (1.52 PPG), while NEC Nijmegen have gone 16W 12D 14L in their last 42 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or NEC Nijmegen away?
NAC Breda's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.65 PPG; NEC Nijmegen away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between NAC Breda and NEC Nijmegen, the earliest from October 2024. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was on 17 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: NEC Nijmegen have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: NEC Nijmegen won NEC Nijmegen 3-0 NAC Breda on 14 May 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, NAC Breda have gone 1W 0D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against NEC Nijmegen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
NAC Breda
0
Draws
3
NEC Nijmegen
Recent Meetings
❓ NAC Breda vs NEC Nijmegen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and NEC Nijmegen?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, NAC Breda have won 1, NEC Nijmegen have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and NEC Nijmegen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 January 2026: NAC Breda 3-4 NEC Nijmegen.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and NEC Nijmegen?
NEC Nijmegen have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for NAC Breda, 60% for NEC Nijmegen — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 55% for NAC Breda and 65% for NEC Nijmegen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / NEC Nijmegen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ NAC Breda vs NEC Nijmegen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in NAC Breda and NEC Nijmegen matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of NAC Breda's games and 60% of NEC Nijmegen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are NAC Breda and NEC Nijmegen matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of NAC Breda's matches and 65% of NEC Nijmegen's.
Do NAC Breda and NEC Nijmegen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of NAC Breda's recent matches and 75% of NEC Nijmegen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as NAC Breda defy the odds to beat NEC Nijmegen 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NAC Breda beat NEC Nijmegen 1-0 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.00 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.35 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. NEC Nijmegen landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 0.85 / defence 1.01 against NEC Nijmegen attack 1.06 / defence 0.76, drawn from 7/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 26% | Draw 31% | NEC Nijmegen 43%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual NAC Breda win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 60%, NEC Nijmegen 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NAC Breda 1.52 PPG, NEC Nijmegen 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the NAC Breda win broke the near-deadlock. NAC Breda (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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