Heracles 3-2 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Willem II at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Heracles vs Willem II encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Heracles host Willem II at Erve Asito in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 2 October 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Heracles — All Games: 2W 1D 3L from 6 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 1.17 points per game. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Heracles have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Heracles have posted 2W 0D 2L at Erve Asito — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Willem II have recorded 5W 1D 1L from 7 outings — 2.29 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.43 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets in 7 outings (43%) underlines their defensive solidity. Willem II have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Willem II away from home this season: 2W 1D 0L from 3 away games — 2.33 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 3 games (67%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Willem II are 1.12 PPG ahead (2.29 vs 1.17), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
Heracles trading profile (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Willem II trading profile (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heracles 50% versus Willem II 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Heracles 33% | Willem II 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heracles 0.96 xG and Willem II 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heracles attack 0.778 / defence 1.040 | Willem II attack 0.867 / defence 0.912. League average goals — home 1.347 / away 1.428. Heracles's attack strength of 0.778 is below the league average — the 0.96 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 6 Heracles games / 7 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heracles 28% | Draw 28% | Willem II 44%. Fair-value odds: Heracles 3.57 | Draw 3.57 | Willem II 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Willem II at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Willem II offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.24 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Heracles 25% | Willem II 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heracles vs Willem II | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Erve Asito • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Oct 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heracles 28% | Draw 28% | Willem II 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Heracles 0.96 / Willem II 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Heracles attack 0.778 / def 1.040 | Willem II attack 0.867 / def 0.912 | league avg home 1.347 / away 1.428 • Poisson stance: Willem II (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Heracles xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Willem II xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heracles vs Willem II kick off?
Heracles vs Willem II kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 2 October 2021 at Erve Asito.
What was the final score in Heracles vs Willem II?
Heracles 3 - 2 Willem II.
Where is Heracles vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at Erve Asito.
What competition is Heracles vs Willem II part of?
Heracles vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heracles vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives Heracles a 28% chance of winning, Willem II a 44% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heracles vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Heracles and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will Heracles vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Willem II?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Heracles and Willem II in?
Heracles (all comps): 2W-1D-3L in 6 | 1.17 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.33 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Willem II (all comps): 5W-1D-1L in 7 | 2.29 PPG | GF 1.43 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Heracles's attack rating (0.78) and Willem II's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 0.96 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Willem II's attack versus Heracles's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 0-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
28%
3.62
28%
3.54
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Heracles xG
Total xG
2.24
1.29
Willem II xG
3.62
28%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
38%
2.60
Win to Nil
8%
13.11
17%
5.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 13.7 | 8.8 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 13.1 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heracles vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Heracles and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Heracles and 1.29 for Willem II, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Heracles vs Willem II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 6 outings, Heracles have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 2W 1D 3L record — D-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Heracles, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Willem II's form line: 5W 1D 0L from 6 games, 2.67 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Willem II, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Willem II are the form team by 1.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Heracles.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Heracles have posted 2.00 PPG from 3 outings (2W 0D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.17 PPG overall — Heracles are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Willem II have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 away games — 2.33 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Heracles are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.67 scored and 0.50 conceded.
Defensively: Willem II in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heracles
Early Season
Willem II
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heracles and Willem II in coming into this match?
Heracles have gone 2W 1D 3L in their last 6 games (1.17 PPG), while Willem II have gone 5W 1D 0L in their last 6 (2.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heracles at home or Willem II away?
Willem II's away record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heracles at home: 2.00 PPG; Willem II away: 2.33 PPG.
Have Heracles or Willem II been keeping clean sheets recently?
Heracles have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Willem II in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Heracles and Willem II runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Heracles's record when hosting Willem II specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Heracles
2
Draws
1
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Willem II?
From 6 meetings on record, Heracles have won 3, Willem II have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Heracles and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2025, when Willem II 1-2 Heracles.
Who has won more matches between Heracles and Willem II?
Heracles have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Heracles see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Willem II see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Heracles 33% BTTS, Willem II 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Heracles) and 67% (Willem II).
On the defensive side: Heracles keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Willem II in 67%; Heracles have failed to score in 33% of games; Willem II in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heracles home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heracles play Willem II?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Heracles's recent matches and 33% of Willem II's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Heracles vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Heracles's recent games and 67% of Willem II's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Heracles defy the odds to beat Willem II 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Heracles beat Willem II 3-2 at Erve Asito, Regular Season - 8, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 0.96 xG and Willem II 1.29 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Heracles beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 0.78 / defence 1.04 against Willem II attack 0.87 / defence 0.91, drawn from 6/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heracles 28% | Draw 28% | Willem II 44%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Heracles win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 33%, Willem II 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heracles's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Willem II's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Willem II arrived the stronger side — 2.67 PPG against 1.17. Form was overturned, with Heracles winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Heracles (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Willem II (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.