Heracles 0-0 Vitesse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Heracles at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Heracles vs Vitesse fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Erve Asito plays host to Heracles versus Vitesse in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Sunday 13 March 2022 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Heracles have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Heracles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Heracles have posted 6W 3D 1L at Erve Asito — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Heracles are significantly better at Erve Asito than their overall form suggests.
Vitesse's overall Eredivisie record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L L L D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Vitesse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Vitesse have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Vitesse are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Heracles lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Dec 2021, ended 1–2 with Vitesse winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Heracles — key trading statistics (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Vitesse — key trading statistics (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heracles 54% versus Vitesse 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Heracles 46% | Vitesse 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heracles 1.31 xG and Vitesse 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heracles attack 1.009 / defence 0.933 | Vitesse attack 0.888 / defence 1.137. League average goals — home 1.141 / away 1.321. Data: 25 Heracles games / 24 Vitesse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heracles 42% | Draw 27% | Vitesse 31%. Fair-value odds: Heracles 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Vitesse 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Heracles are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Vitesse (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Heracles if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Heracles 50% | Vitesse 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heracles vs Vitesse | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Erve Asito • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Mar 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heracles 42% | Draw 27% | Vitesse 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Heracles 1.31 / Vitesse 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Heracles attack 1.009 / def 0.933 | Vitesse attack 0.888 / def 1.137 | league avg home 1.141 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Heracles (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Heracles xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Vitesse xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heracles vs Vitesse kick off?
Heracles vs Vitesse kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 13 March 2022 at Erve Asito.
What was the final score in Heracles vs Vitesse?
Heracles 0 - 0 Vitesse.
Where is Heracles vs Vitesse being played?
The match is being played at Erve Asito.
What competition is Heracles vs Vitesse part of?
Heracles vs Vitesse is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heracles vs Vitesse?
Our statistical model gives Heracles a 42% chance of winning, Vitesse a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Heracles the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heracles vs Vitesse?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Heracles and Vitesse will score (BTTS).
Will Heracles vs Vitesse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Vitesse?
Record (1 meetings): Heracles 0W | Draws 0 | Vitesse 1W.
What form are Heracles and Vitesse in?
Heracles (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Vitesse (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Heracles's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Vitesse's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. Flip it around — Vitesse's attack (0.89x) against Heracles's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 25/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Heracles Win
42%
2.41
27%
3.64
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Heracles xG
Total xG
2.40
1.09
Vitesse xG
2.41
42%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
14%
7.18
8%
11.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.0 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heracles vs Vitesse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Heracles and Vitesse expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Heracles and 1.09 for Vitesse, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Heracles vs Vitesse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Heracles's recent record stands at 7W 5D 12L from 24 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Heracles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vitesse, meanwhile, have gone 12W 4D 8L across 24 games — 1.67 PPG, with L-L-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Vitesse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Vitesse by 0.59 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Heracles heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Heracles have managed 7W 3D 2L from 12 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.08 PPG overall — Heracles are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Vitesse's away record stands at 7W 2D 3L across 12 trips, a 1.92 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Heracles are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Vitesse are on 1.33 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 24 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heracles
Blended
Vitesse
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heracles and Vitesse in coming into this match?
Heracles have gone 7W 5D 12L in their last 24 games (1.08 PPG), while Vitesse have gone 12W 4D 8L in their last 24 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heracles at home or Vitesse away?
Heracles's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heracles at home: 2.00 PPG; Vitesse away: 1.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Heracles have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Vitesse — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Heracles
1
Draws
2
Vitesse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Vitesse?
From 4 meetings on record, Heracles have won 1, Vitesse have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Heracles and Vitesse last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2024, when Heracles 3-2 Vitesse.
Who has won more matches between Heracles and Vitesse?
Vitesse have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Heracles see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Heracles 50%, Vitesse 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Heracles) and 50% (Vitesse).
On the defensive side: Heracles keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Vitesse in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heracles home games / Vitesse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heracles play Vitesse?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Heracles's recent matches and 42% of Vitesse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Heracles vs Vitesse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Heracles's recent games and 50% of Vitesse's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Heracles and Vitesse tend to score early?
Heracles have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Vitesse in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Heracles's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Erve Asito, Regular Season - 26, as Heracles and Vitesse drew 0-0 in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 1.31 xG and Vitesse 1.09 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Heracles fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Vitesse landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 1.01 / defence 0.93 against Vitesse attack 0.89 / defence 1.14, drawn from 25/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heracles 42% | Draw 27% | Vitesse 31%, with Heracles to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 46%, Vitesse 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heracles's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Vitesse's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Vitesse arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Heracles (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. Vitesse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.