Heracles 0-1 NEC Nijmegen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Heracles at 49%, yet in-form NEC Nijmegen provide a compelling counter-argument — this Heracles vs NEC Nijmegen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Heracles host NEC Nijmegen at Erve Asito in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 29 August 2021 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Heracles — All Games: 0W 1D 1L from 2 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Heracles have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, NEC Nijmegen stand at 1W 0D 1L from 2 Eredivisie matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. NEC Nijmegen have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form points away from home here. NEC Nijmegen's 1.50 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Heracles's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heracles 1.47 xG and NEC Nijmegen 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heracles attack 0.769 / defence 1.274 | NEC Nijmegen attack 0.719 / defence 1.551. League average goals — home 1.236 / away 1.032. Heracles's attack strength of 0.769 is below the league average — the 1.47 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. NEC Nijmegen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.551 — this is suppressing Heracles's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 2 Heracles games / 2 NEC Nijmegen games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Heracles 49% | Draw 26% | NEC Nijmegen 24%. Fair-value odds: Heracles 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | NEC Nijmegen 4.17. Heracles hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Heracles are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form NEC Nijmegen (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Heracles offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heracles vs NEC Nijmegen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Erve Asito • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Aug 2021, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heracles 49% | Draw 26% | NEC Nijmegen 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 47% | xG Heracles 1.47 / NEC Nijmegen 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Heracles attack 0.769 / def 1.274 | NEC Nijmegen attack 0.719 / def 1.551 | league avg home 1.236 / away 1.032 • Poisson stance: Heracles (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Heracles xG
Expected Goals
0.95
NEC Nijmegen xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heracles vs NEC Nijmegen kick off?
Heracles vs NEC Nijmegen kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 29 August 2021 at Erve Asito.
What was the final score in Heracles vs NEC Nijmegen?
Heracles 0 - 1 NEC Nijmegen.
Where is Heracles vs NEC Nijmegen being played?
The match is being played at Erve Asito.
What competition is Heracles vs NEC Nijmegen part of?
Heracles vs NEC Nijmegen is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heracles vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our statistical model gives Heracles a 49% chance of winning, NEC Nijmegen a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Heracles the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heracles vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Heracles and NEC Nijmegen will score (BTTS).
Will Heracles vs NEC Nijmegen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and NEC Nijmegen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Heracles and NEC Nijmegen in?
Heracles (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D. NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Heracles's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against NEC Nijmegen's defensive record (1.55x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. The same calculation in reverse, NEC Nijmegen's attack versus Heracles's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Heracles Win
49%
2.02
26%
3.80
24%
4.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Heracles xG
Total xG
2.42
0.95
NEC Nijmegen xG
2.02
49%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
4.13
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
23%
4.37
Win to Nil
19%
5.21
6%
18.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.4 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.1 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heracles vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Heracles and NEC Nijmegen expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Heracles and 0.95 for NEC Nijmegen, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Heracles vs NEC Nijmegen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 2 outings, Heracles have picked up 0.50 PPG on a 0W 1D 1L record — L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Heracles, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
NEC Nijmegen's form line: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games, 1.50 PPG, last five L-W. It's still early in the season for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, NEC Nijmegen are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Heracles.
Goals in Recent Form
Heracles are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; NEC Nijmegen are on 1.00 scored and 2.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NEC Nijmegen in 0%.
Defensively: NEC Nijmegen in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heracles
Early Season
NEC Nijmegen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heracles and NEC Nijmegen in coming into this match?
Heracles have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 games (0.50 PPG), while NEC Nijmegen have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
Have Heracles or NEC Nijmegen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Heracles have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, NEC Nijmegen in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
NEC Nijmegen go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Aug 2025, when NEC Nijmegen won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Heracles's record when hosting NEC Nijmegen specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Heracles
1
Draws
5
NEC Nijmegen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and NEC Nijmegen?
From 8 meetings on record, Heracles have won 2, NEC Nijmegen have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Heracles and NEC Nijmegen last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when NEC Nijmegen 4-1 Heracles.
Who has won more matches between Heracles and NEC Nijmegen?
NEC Nijmegen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heracles home games / NEC Nijmegen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heracles play NEC Nijmegen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Heracles's recent matches and 0% of NEC Nijmegen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Heracles vs NEC Nijmegen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Heracles's recent games and 50% of NEC Nijmegen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Heracles and NEC Nijmegen tend to score early?
Heracles have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, NEC Nijmegen in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as NEC Nijmegen defy the odds to beat Heracles 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NEC Nijmegen beat Heracles 0-1 at Erve Asito, Regular Season - 3, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 1.47 xG and NEC Nijmegen 0.95 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Heracles fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 0.77 / defence 1.27 against NEC Nijmegen attack 0.72 / defence 1.55, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Heracles 49% | Draw 26% | NEC Nijmegen 24%, with Heracles to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a NEC Nijmegen win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 0%, NEC Nijmegen 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, NEC Nijmegen arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was vindicated by the result. NEC Nijmegen conceded 0 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.