Heracles 1-4 Feyenoord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Feyenoord at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Heracles vs Feyenoord encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Feyenoord travel to Erve Asito to take on Heracles. The game is scheduled for Sunday 10 April 2022, 15:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Heracles — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Heracles's home record at Erve Asito: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Heracles are significantly better at Erve Asito than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Feyenoord stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Feyenoord have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Feyenoord are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Heracles, 1 for Feyenoord and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Dec 2021, ended 1–2 with Feyenoord winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Heracles in-play and half-time data (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Feyenoord in-play and half-time data (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heracles 46% versus Feyenoord 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Heracles 39% | Feyenoord 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heracles 1.13 xG and Feyenoord 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heracles attack 0.906 / defence 0.899 | Feyenoord attack 1.163 / defence 1.107. League average goals — home 1.128 / away 1.278. Data: 28 Heracles games / 28 Feyenoord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heracles 32% | Draw 27% | Feyenoord 41%. Fair-value odds: Heracles 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Feyenoord 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Feyenoord at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Feyenoord offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Heracles 50% | Feyenoord 60%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heracles vs Feyenoord | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Erve Asito • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Apr 2022, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heracles 32% | Draw 27% | Feyenoord 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Heracles 1.13 / Feyenoord 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Heracles attack 0.906 / def 0.899 | Feyenoord attack 1.163 / def 1.107 | league avg home 1.128 / away 1.278 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Heracles xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Feyenoord xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heracles vs Feyenoord kick off?
Heracles vs Feyenoord kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 10 April 2022 at Erve Asito.
What was the final score in Heracles vs Feyenoord?
Heracles 1 - 4 Feyenoord.
Where is Heracles vs Feyenoord being played?
The match is being played at Erve Asito.
What competition is Heracles vs Feyenoord part of?
Heracles vs Feyenoord is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heracles vs Feyenoord?
Our statistical model gives Heracles a 32% chance of winning, Feyenoord a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heracles vs Feyenoord?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Heracles and Feyenoord will score (BTTS).
Will Heracles vs Feyenoord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Feyenoord?
Record (1 meetings): Heracles 0W | Draws 0 | Feyenoord 1W.
What form are Heracles and Feyenoord in?
Heracles (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. Feyenoord (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Heracles's attack rating (0.91) and Feyenoord's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Feyenoord's attack versus Heracles's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
32%
3.17
27%
3.70
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Heracles xG
Total xG
2.47
1.34
Feyenoord xG
3.17
32%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
26%
3.81
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
8%
12.06
13%
7.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 11.3 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.8 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.2 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heracles vs Feyenoord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Heracles and Feyenoord expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Heracles and 1.34 for Feyenoord, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Heracles vs Feyenoord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Heracles come into this having played 28 games, going 8W 6D 14L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-W.
On the other side, Feyenoord sit at 2.07 PPG from 28 outings (18W 4D 6L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-W across their last five.
Feyenoord carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Heracles — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Heracles's home form reads 7W 4D 3L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.79 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.07 PPG overall — Heracles are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Feyenoord have taken 1.86 points per game from 14 outings (8W 2D 4L).
Goals in Recent Form
Heracles are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Feyenoord are on 2.25 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Defensively: Feyenoord in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heracles
Current Season
Feyenoord
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heracles and Feyenoord in coming into this match?
Heracles have gone 8W 6D 14L in their last 28 games (1.07 PPG), while Feyenoord have gone 18W 4D 6L in their last 28 (2.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heracles at home or Feyenoord away?
Feyenoord's away record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heracles at home: 1.79 PPG; Feyenoord away: 1.86 PPG.
Have Heracles or Feyenoord been keeping clean sheets recently?
Heracles have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Feyenoord in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Feyenoord have won the last 8 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Oct 2025, when Feyenoord won 0-7 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Heracles's record when hosting Feyenoord specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Heracles
0
Draws
8
Feyenoord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Feyenoord?
From 8 meetings on record, Heracles have won 0, Feyenoord have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Heracles and Feyenoord last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Feyenoord 4-2 Heracles.
Who has won more matches between Heracles and Feyenoord?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Heracles see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Heracles 43%, Feyenoord 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Heracles) and 71% (Feyenoord).
On the defensive side: Heracles keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Feyenoord in 43%; Heracles have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heracles home games / Feyenoord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heracles play Feyenoord?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Heracles's recent matches and 57% of Feyenoord's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Heracles vs Feyenoord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Heracles's recent games and 71% of Feyenoord's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Heracles and Feyenoord tend to score early?
Heracles have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Feyenoord in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Feyenoord run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Heracles.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat Heracles 1-4 at Erve Asito, Regular Season - 29, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 1.13 xG and Feyenoord 1.34 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Feyenoord outscored their 1.34 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 0.91 / defence 0.90 against Feyenoord attack 1.16 / defence 1.11, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heracles 32% | Draw 27% | Feyenoord 41%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 39%, Feyenoord 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heracles's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Feyenoord's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 1.07. That form edge translated into the three points. Heracles (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Feyenoord (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.07 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.