Heracles 2-4 Ajax – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Ajax (58%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Heracles face Ajax.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ajax make the trip to Erve Asito to face Heracles in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Saturday 27 January 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Heracles (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Heracles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Heracles's home record at Erve Asito: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Heracles are significantly better at Erve Asito than their overall form suggests.
Ajax's overall Eredivisie record this term: 8W 2D 0L from 10 games (2.60 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Ajax, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ajax's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Ajax are the stronger side — 1.80 PPG clear of the hosts (2.60 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Heracles have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Ajax in 90%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Heracles 0W, Ajax 2W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Aug 2023, ended 1–4 with Ajax winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Heracles half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 89% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Ajax half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 64%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Heracles 56% and Ajax 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Heracles 73% | Ajax 77%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heracles 1.43 xG and Ajax 2.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heracles attack 0.733 / defence 1.289 | Ajax attack 1.300 / defence 1.216. League average goals — home 1.602 / away 1.451. Heracles's attack strength of 0.733 is below the league average — the 1.43 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Ajax bring a strong defensive rating of 1.216 — this is suppressing Heracles's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Ajax have an above-average attack strength of 1.300 — the away xG of 2.43 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 18 Heracles games / 52 Ajax games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heracles 20% | Draw 22% | Ajax 58%. Fair-value odds: Heracles 5.00 | Draw 4.55 | Ajax 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Ajax (58%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.86. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.86 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (1.43 / 2.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ajax are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 74% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 71% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Heracles 60% | Ajax 90% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heracles vs Ajax | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Erve Asito • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Jan 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heracles 20% | Draw 22% | Ajax 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 71% | xG Heracles 1.43 / Ajax 2.43 • Poisson strength factors: Heracles attack 0.733 / def 1.289 | Ajax attack 1.300 / def 1.216 | league avg home 1.602 / away 1.451 • Poisson stance: Ajax (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Heracles xG
Expected Goals
2.43
Ajax xG
71%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heracles vs Ajax kick off?
Heracles vs Ajax kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 27 January 2024 at Erve Asito.
What was the final score in Heracles vs Ajax?
Heracles 2 - 4 Ajax.
Where is Heracles vs Ajax being played?
The match is being played at Erve Asito.
What competition is Heracles vs Ajax part of?
Heracles vs Ajax is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heracles vs Ajax?
Our statistical model gives Heracles a 20% chance of winning, Ajax a 58% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Ajax the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heracles vs Ajax?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Heracles and Ajax will score (BTTS).
Will Heracles vs Ajax have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Ajax?
Record (3 meetings): Heracles 0W | Draws 1 | Ajax 2W.
What form are Heracles and Ajax in?
Heracles (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Ajax (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Heracles's attack at 0.73x the league average against Ajax's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ajax's attack (1.30x) against Heracles's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 2.43.
These ratings are built from 18/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 8.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.3%), 1-3 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajax Win
20%
4.98
22%
4.61
58%
1.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.3%
Draw
1 – 3
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Heracles xG
Total xG
3.86
2.43
Ajax xG
4.98
20%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
1.72
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.41
29%
BTTS No
3.42
Clean Sheet
9%
11.38
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
2%
56.68
14%
7.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 5.1 | 6.2 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 3.0 | 7.3 | 8.9 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 2.1 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 5.2 | 6.3 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.5 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heracles vs Ajax?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are Heracles and Ajax expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Heracles and 2.43 for Ajax, a combined total of 3.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Heracles vs Ajax?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Heracles come into this having played 52 games, going 29W 7D 16L for 1.81 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-D. The sample for Heracles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ajax sit at 1.92 PPG from 52 outings (29W 13D 10L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Ajax is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.81 PPG for Heracles against 1.92 for Ajax. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Heracles's home form reads 17W 4D 5L across 26 games on their own ground, a 2.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Ajax have taken 1.77 points per game from 26 outings (13W 7D 6L).
Attack vs Defence
Heracles are averaging 2.19 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Ajax are on 2.46 scored and 1.37 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Ajax in 69%.
Last 52 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heracles
Blended
Ajax
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heracles and Ajax in coming into this match?
Heracles have gone 29W 7D 16L in their last 52 games (1.81 PPG), while Ajax have gone 29W 13D 10L in their last 52 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heracles at home or Ajax away?
Heracles's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heracles at home: 2.12 PPG; Ajax away: 1.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Ajax have taken the last 7 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ajax won 4-0 on 16 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Heracles have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Ajax — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Heracles
1
Draws
7
Ajax
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Ajax?
From 8 meetings on record, Heracles have won 0, Ajax have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Heracles and Ajax last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Heracles 0-3 Ajax.
Who has won more matches between Heracles and Ajax?
Ajax have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 54% for Heracles, 77% for Ajax — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Heracles and 77% for Ajax. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 62% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heracles keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heracles home games / Ajax away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heracles play Ajax?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Heracles's games and 77% of Ajax's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Heracles vs Ajax usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Heracles's matches and 77% of Ajax's.
Do Heracles and Ajax tend to score early?
Heracles have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Ajax in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ajax cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Heracles.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajax beat Heracles 2-4 at Erve Asito, Regular Season - 19, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 1.43 xG and Ajax 2.43 xG, a combined 3.86. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Ajax outscored their 2.43 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 0.73 / defence 1.29 against Ajax attack 1.30 / defence 1.22, drawn from 18/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heracles 20% | Draw 22% | Ajax 58%, with Ajax to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 73%, Ajax 77%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heracles's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Ajax's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Heracles 1.81 PPG, Ajax 1.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ajax win broke the near-deadlock. Heracles (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ajax (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.19 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.