Heerenveen 0-3 Feyenoord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Feyenoord at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Heerenveen vs Feyenoord encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 18 as Heerenveen welcome Feyenoord to Abe Lenstra Stadion. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 22 December 2021 at 17:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Heerenveen — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D W D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Heerenveen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Heerenveen's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 4L across 9 games at Abe Lenstra Stadion this term (1.22 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Feyenoord stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W D L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Feyenoord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Feyenoord's away record: 4W 2D 2L from 8 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.75 PPG). They are averaging 1.88 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 away clean sheets from 8 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. Feyenoord's 2.10 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Heerenveen's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Heerenveen, 1 for Feyenoord and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2021, ended 1–3 with Feyenoord winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Heerenveen trading profile (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Feyenoord trading profile (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heerenveen 65% versus Feyenoord 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Heerenveen 47% | Feyenoord 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heerenveen 0.93 xG and Feyenoord 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heerenveen attack 0.794 / defence 1.089 | Feyenoord attack 0.939 / defence 0.987. League average goals — home 1.190 / away 1.384. Heerenveen's attack strength of 0.794 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 17 Heerenveen games / 17 Feyenoord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heerenveen 25% | Draw 27% | Feyenoord 48%. Fair-value odds: Heerenveen 4.00 | Draw 3.70 | Feyenoord 2.08. Feyenoord hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Feyenoord as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Feyenoord offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Heerenveen 67% | Feyenoord 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heerenveen vs Feyenoord | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Abe Lenstra Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Dec 2021, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heerenveen 25% | Draw 27% | Feyenoord 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 46% | xG Heerenveen 0.93 / Feyenoord 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Heerenveen attack 0.794 / def 1.089 | Feyenoord attack 0.939 / def 0.987 | league avg home 1.190 / away 1.384 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Heerenveen xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Feyenoord xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heerenveen vs Feyenoord kick off?
Heerenveen vs Feyenoord kicked off at 17:45 on Wednesday 22 December 2021 at Abe Lenstra Stadion.
What was the final score in Heerenveen vs Feyenoord?
Heerenveen 0 - 3 Feyenoord.
Where is Heerenveen vs Feyenoord being played?
The match is being played at Abe Lenstra Stadion.
What competition is Heerenveen vs Feyenoord part of?
Heerenveen vs Feyenoord is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heerenveen vs Feyenoord?
Our statistical model gives Heerenveen a 25% chance of winning, Feyenoord a 48% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heerenveen vs Feyenoord?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Heerenveen and Feyenoord will score (BTTS).
Will Heerenveen vs Feyenoord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heerenveen and Feyenoord?
Record (1 meetings): Heerenveen 0W | Draws 0 | Feyenoord 1W.
What form are Heerenveen and Feyenoord in?
Heerenveen (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Feyenoord (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Heerenveen's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Feyenoord's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.93. The same calculation in reverse, Feyenoord's attack versus Heerenveen's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.9%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
25%
4.04
27%
3.71
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
9.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Heerenveen xG
Total xG
2.35
1.42
Feyenoord xG
4.04
25%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
24%
4.12
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
6%
16.63
19%
5.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 13.5 | 9.6 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.6 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.9 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heerenveen vs Feyenoord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Heerenveen and Feyenoord expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Heerenveen and 1.42 for Feyenoord, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Heerenveen vs Feyenoord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 17 outings, Heerenveen have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 7W 4D 6L record — W-D-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Heerenveen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Feyenoord's form line: 11W 3D 3L from 17 games, 2.12 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-L. The sample for Feyenoord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Feyenoord are the form team by 0.65 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Heerenveen.
Venue Form
On home soil, Heerenveen have posted 1.00 PPG from 8 outings (2W 2D 4L). That actually lags their 1.47 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Feyenoord have gone 4W 2D 2L from 8 away games — 1.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Heerenveen are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Feyenoord are on 2.29 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Heerenveen have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: Feyenoord in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heerenveen
Blended
Feyenoord
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heerenveen and Feyenoord in coming into this match?
Heerenveen have gone 7W 4D 6L in their last 17 games (1.47 PPG), while Feyenoord have gone 11W 3D 3L in their last 17 (2.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heerenveen at home or Feyenoord away?
Feyenoord's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heerenveen at home: 1.00 PPG; Feyenoord away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Heerenveen or Feyenoord been keeping clean sheets recently?
Heerenveen have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Feyenoord in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 11 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Sep 2023, when Feyenoord won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Heerenveen's record when hosting Feyenoord specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Heerenveen
2
Draws
7
Feyenoord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heerenveen and Feyenoord?
From 10 meetings on record, Heerenveen have won 1, Feyenoord have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Heerenveen and Feyenoord last play each other?
They last met on 11 January 2026, when Heerenveen 2-2 Feyenoord.
Who has won more matches between Heerenveen and Feyenoord?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Heerenveen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Heerenveen 62%, Feyenoord 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Heerenveen) and 62% (Feyenoord). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feyenoord in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heerenveen home games / Feyenoord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heerenveen play Feyenoord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Heerenveen's games and 50% of Feyenoord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Heerenveen vs Feyenoord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Heerenveen's matches and 62% of Feyenoord's.
Do Heerenveen and Feyenoord tend to score early?
Heerenveen have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Feyenoord in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Feyenoord run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Heerenveen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat Heerenveen 0-3 at Abe Lenstra Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heerenveen 0.93 xG and Feyenoord 1.42 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Heerenveen fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Feyenoord outscored their 1.42 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heerenveen attack 0.79 / defence 1.09 against Feyenoord attack 0.94 / defence 0.99, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heerenveen 25% | Draw 27% | Feyenoord 48%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heerenveen 47%, Feyenoord 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heerenveen's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Feyenoord's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.47. That form edge translated into the three points. Heerenveen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Feyenoord (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.