Heerenveen 1-2 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Heerenveen at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Heerenveen vs FC Volendam encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Heerenveen and FC Volendam meet at Abe Lenstra Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 December 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Heerenveen's overall Eredivisie record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Heerenveen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Heerenveen at Abe Lenstra Stadion this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Abe Lenstra Stadion.
FC Volendam (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, FC Volendam have posted 0W 1D 9L from 10 away outings — 0.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Heerenveen's favour (1.30 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Heerenveen 2W, FC Volendam 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Apr 2023, ended 2–1 with Heerenveen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Heerenveen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
FC Volendam goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heerenveen 53% versus FC Volendam 63%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Heerenveen 65% | FC Volendam 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heerenveen 2.23 xG and FC Volendam 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heerenveen attack 1.062 / defence 0.839 | FC Volendam attack 0.831 / defence 1.256. League average goals — home 1.676 / away 1.499. FC Volendam bring a strong defensive rating of 1.256 — this is suppressing Heerenveen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 Heerenveen games / 49 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heerenveen 63% | Draw 23% | FC Volendam 15%. Fair-value odds: Heerenveen 1.59 | Draw 4.35 | FC Volendam 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Heerenveen (63%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.23 / 1.05) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Heerenveen are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.28 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Heerenveen 40% | FC Volendam 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heerenveen vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Abe Lenstra Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Dec 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heerenveen 63% | Draw 23% | FC Volendam 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 60% | xG Heerenveen 2.23 / FC Volendam 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Heerenveen attack 1.062 / def 0.839 | FC Volendam attack 0.831 / def 1.256 | league avg home 1.676 / away 1.499 • Poisson stance: Heerenveen (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.23
Heerenveen xG
Expected Goals
1.05
FC Volendam xG
60%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heerenveen vs FC Volendam kick off?
Heerenveen vs FC Volendam kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 16 December 2023 at Abe Lenstra Stadion.
What was the final score in Heerenveen vs FC Volendam?
Heerenveen 1 - 2 FC Volendam.
Where is Heerenveen vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at Abe Lenstra Stadion.
What competition is Heerenveen vs FC Volendam part of?
Heerenveen vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heerenveen vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives Heerenveen a 63% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 15% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Heerenveen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heerenveen vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Heerenveen and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will Heerenveen vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heerenveen and FC Volendam?
Record (2 meetings): Heerenveen 2W | Draws 0 | FC Volendam 0W.
What form are Heerenveen and FC Volendam in?
Heerenveen (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. FC Volendam (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.60 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Heerenveen's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against FC Volendam's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.23. Flip it around — FC Volendam's attack (0.83x) against Heerenveen's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Heerenveen Win
63%
1.60
23%
4.43
15%
6.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.23
Heerenveen xG
Total xG
3.28
1.05
FC Volendam xG
1.60
63%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
6.73
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
11%
9.35
Win to Nil
22%
4.55
2%
62.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.4 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 7.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heerenveen vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Heerenveen and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 2.23 expected goals for Heerenveen and 1.05 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Heerenveen vs FC Volendam?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Heerenveen come into this having played 49 games, going 18W 9D 22L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-L. The sample for Heerenveen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Volendam sit at 0.90 PPG from 49 outings (12W 8D 29L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Heerenveen against 0.90 for FC Volendam. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Heerenveen's home form reads 10W 3D 11L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Volendam have taken 0.33 points per game from 24 outings (1W 5D 18L). That's a step down from their 0.90 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Volendam's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Heerenveen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Heerenveen are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 1.18 scored and 2.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam in 63%.
Last 49 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heerenveen
Blended
FC Volendam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heerenveen and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
Heerenveen have gone 18W 9D 22L in their last 49 games (1.29 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 12W 8D 29L in their last 49 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heerenveen at home or FC Volendam away?
Heerenveen's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heerenveen at home: 1.38 PPG; FC Volendam away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Heerenveen won 0-4 on 25 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Heerenveen have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against FC Volendam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Heerenveen
1
Draws
1
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heerenveen and FC Volendam?
From 6 meetings on record, Heerenveen have won 4, FC Volendam have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Heerenveen and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when FC Volendam 0-2 Heerenveen.
Who has won more matches between Heerenveen and FC Volendam?
Heerenveen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Heerenveen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Heerenveen 62%, FC Volendam 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Heerenveen and 71% for FC Volendam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Volendam in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heerenveen home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heerenveen play FC Volendam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Heerenveen's games and 58% of FC Volendam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Heerenveen vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Heerenveen's matches and 71% of FC Volendam's.
Do Heerenveen and FC Volendam tend to score early?
Heerenveen have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Volendam defy the odds to beat Heerenveen 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Volendam beat Heerenveen 1-2 at Abe Lenstra Stadion, Regular Season - 16, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heerenveen 2.23 xG and FC Volendam 1.05 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Heerenveen fell 1.2 short of their projected output. FC Volendam outscored their 1.05 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heerenveen attack 1.06 / defence 0.84 against FC Volendam attack 0.83 / defence 1.26, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heerenveen 63% | Draw 23% | FC Volendam 15%, with Heerenveen to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a FC Volendam win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heerenveen 65%, FC Volendam 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heerenveen's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
FC Volendam's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Heerenveen 1.29 PPG, FC Volendam 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Volendam win broke the near-deadlock. FC Volendam (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.