Groningen 2-3 Fortuna Sittard – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Groningen at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Groningen host Fortuna Sittard at Euroborg in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 13 November 2022 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Groningen — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Groningen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Groningen's home record at Euroborg: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fortuna Sittard stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Sittard, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortuna Sittard's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Groningen at 0.80 PPG versus Fortuna Sittard's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Groningen, 1 for Fortuna Sittard and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Feb 2022, ended 0–1 with Fortuna Sittard winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Groningen trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Fortuna Sittard trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Groningen 64% and Fortuna Sittard 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Groningen 53% | Fortuna Sittard 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 1.74 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 1.036 / defence 1.267 | Fortuna Sittard attack 0.926 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.624 / away 1.334. Data: 47 Groningen games / 47 Fortuna Sittard games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Groningen 42% | Draw 23% | Fortuna Sittard 35%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 2.38 | Draw 4.35 | Fortuna Sittard 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.74 / 1.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Groningen as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Groningen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.31 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Groningen 70% | Fortuna Sittard 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Euroborg • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Nov 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Groningen 42% | Draw 23% | Fortuna Sittard 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Groningen 1.74 / Fortuna Sittard 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Groningen attack 1.036 / def 1.267 | Fortuna Sittard attack 0.926 / def 1.034 | league avg home 1.624 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: Groningen (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Groningen xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Fortuna Sittard xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard kick off?
Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 13 November 2022 at Euroborg.
What was the final score in Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard?
Groningen 2 - 3 Fortuna Sittard.
Where is Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard being played?
The match is being played at Euroborg.
What competition is Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard part of?
Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our statistical model gives Groningen a 42% chance of winning, Fortuna Sittard a 35% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Groningen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Groningen and Fortuna Sittard will score (BTTS).
Will Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Fortuna Sittard?
Record (2 meetings): Groningen 1W | Draws 0 | Fortuna Sittard 1W.
What form are Groningen and Fortuna Sittard in?
Groningen (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Fortuna Sittard (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Groningen's attack rating (1.04) and Fortuna Sittard's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.74 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fortuna Sittard's attack versus Groningen's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Groningen Win
42%
2.37
23%
4.36
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Groningen xG
Total xG
3.31
1.56
Fortuna Sittard xG
2.37
42%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.87
Clean Sheet
21%
4.78
18%
5.70
Win to Nil
9%
11.32
6%
16.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.0 | 7.8 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.7 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Groningen and Fortuna Sittard expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Groningen and 1.56 for Fortuna Sittard, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Groningen's recent record stands at 12W 12D 23L from 47 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Groningen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fortuna Sittard, meanwhile, have gone 13W 8D 26L across 47 games — 1.00 PPG, with W-D-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Fortuna Sittard is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Groningen on 1.02 PPG, Fortuna Sittard on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Groningen have managed 6W 7D 10L from 23 games — 1.09 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fortuna Sittard's away record stands at 5W 5D 13L across 23 trips, a 0.87 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Groningen are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Sittard are on 1.09 scored and 1.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Groningen have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Groningen
Blended
Fortuna Sittard
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Groningen and Fortuna Sittard in coming into this match?
Groningen have gone 12W 12D 23L in their last 47 games (1.02 PPG), while Fortuna Sittard have gone 13W 8D 26L in their last 47 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Groningen at home or Fortuna Sittard away?
Groningen's home record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Groningen at home: 1.09 PPG; Fortuna Sittard away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Nov 2021, when Groningen won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Groningen's record when hosting Fortuna Sittard specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Groningen
0
Draws
5
Fortuna Sittard
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Fortuna Sittard?
From 8 meetings on record, Groningen have won 3, Fortuna Sittard have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Groningen and Fortuna Sittard last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Groningen 1-2 Fortuna Sittard.
Who has won more matches between Groningen and Fortuna Sittard?
Fortuna Sittard have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Fortuna Sittard are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Groningen 61%, Fortuna Sittard 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Groningen) and 61% (Fortuna Sittard).
On the defensive side: Groningen have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Groningen home games / Fortuna Sittard away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Groningen play Fortuna Sittard?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Groningen's games and 65% of Fortuna Sittard's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Groningen's recent games and 61% of Fortuna Sittard's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Groningen and Fortuna Sittard tend to score early?
Groningen have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Fortuna Sittard in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Fortuna Sittard defy the odds to beat Groningen 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Sittard beat Groningen 2-3 at Euroborg, Regular Season - 14, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 1.74 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.56 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Fortuna Sittard outscored their 1.56 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 1.04 / defence 1.27 against Fortuna Sittard attack 0.93 / defence 1.03, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Groningen 42% | Draw 23% | Fortuna Sittard 35%, with Groningen to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Fortuna Sittard win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 53%, Fortuna Sittard 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Groningen's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Groningen 1.02 PPG, Fortuna Sittard 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fortuna Sittard win broke the near-deadlock. Groningen (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.