Groningen vs Feyenoord – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Feyenoord (61%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Groningen face Feyenoord.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Feyenoord travel to Euroborg to take on Groningen. The game is scheduled for Sunday 13 December 2026, 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Groningen stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Groningen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Euroborg, Groningen have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Feyenoord have recorded 8W 2D 0L from 10 outings — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Feyenoord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Feyenoord away from home this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 away games — 2.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Feyenoord are 1.20 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Groningen register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Feyenoord in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The previous 8 encounters between these sides heavily favour Feyenoord, who boast 5 victories compared to 0 for Groningen.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2026, ended 1–3 with Feyenoord winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Feyenoord have won 5 of 8 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Groningen in-play tendencies (43 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games).
Feyenoord in-play tendencies (43 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Groningen 60% and Feyenoord 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Groningen 60% | Feyenoord 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 1.79 xG and Feyenoord 2.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 1.155 / defence 1.090 | Feyenoord attack 1.483 / defence 0.894. League average goals — home 1.739 / away 1.813. Feyenoord have an above-average attack strength of 1.483 — the away xG of 2.93 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 43 Groningen games / 43 Feyenoord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Groningen 21% | Draw 18% | Feyenoord 61%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 4.76 | Draw 5.56 | Feyenoord 1.64. The model has a clear lean to Feyenoord (61%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 85% | BTTS probability 80% | Total xG 4.72. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 85% — a total xG of 4.72 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 80% reflects that both xG figures (1.79 / 2.93) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Feyenoord are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 4.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 85% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 80%. Form rates corroborate: Groningen 70% | Feyenoord 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Groningen vs Feyenoord | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Euroborg • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Dec 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Groningen 21% | Draw 18% | Feyenoord 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 85% | BTTS 80% | xG Groningen 1.79 / Feyenoord 2.93 • Poisson strength factors: Groningen attack 1.155 / def 1.090 | Feyenoord attack 1.483 / def 0.894 | league avg home 1.739 / away 1.813 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Groningen xG
Expected Goals
2.93
Feyenoord xG
80%
BTTS
96%
Over 1.5
85%
Over 2.5
69%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Groningen vs Feyenoord kick off?
Groningen vs Feyenoord is scheduled to kick off at 13:30 on Sunday 13 December 2026 at Euroborg.
Where is Groningen vs Feyenoord being played?
The match is being played at Euroborg.
What competition is Groningen vs Feyenoord part of?
Groningen vs Feyenoord is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Groningen vs Feyenoord?
Our statistical model gives Groningen a 21% chance of winning, Feyenoord a 61% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs Feyenoord?
Our model estimates a 80% probability that both Groningen and Feyenoord will score (BTTS).
Will Groningen vs Feyenoord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 85%.
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Feyenoord?
Record (8 meetings): Groningen 0W | Draws 3 | Feyenoord 5W.
What form are Groningen and Feyenoord in?
Groningen (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Feyenoord (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 3.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Groningen's attack rating (1.16) and Feyenoord's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.79 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Feyenoord's attack versus Groningen's defence, projects 2.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 6.8%. Close behind: 1-3 (6.7%), 2-2 (6.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 20% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
21%
4.66
18%
5.54
61%
1.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
6.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
6.7%
Away win
2 – 2
6.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Groningen xG
Total xG
4.72
2.93
Feyenoord xG
4.66
21%
Home win
5.54
18%
Draw
1.65
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
95%
Over 1.5
1.05
5%
Under 1.5
20.00
85%
Over 2.5
1.18
15%
Under 2.5
6.67
69%
Over 3.5
1.45
31%
Under 3.5
3.23
51%
Over 4.5
1.96
49%
Under 4.5
2.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
80%
BTTS Yes
1.26
20%
BTTS No
4.90
Clean Sheet
5%
18.73
17%
6.02
Win to Nil
1%
87.35
10%
9.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.9 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 1.6 | 4.7 | 6.8 | 6.7 | 4.9 | 2.9 |
| 2 | 1.4 | 4.2 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 4.4 | 2.6 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.5 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs Feyenoord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 6.8%.
How many goals are Groningen and Feyenoord expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Groningen and 2.93 for Feyenoord, a combined total of 4.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs Feyenoord?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Groningen come into this having played 43 games, going 18W 8D 17L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-L. The sample for Groningen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Feyenoord sit at 2.05 PPG from 43 outings (26W 10D 7L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Feyenoord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Feyenoord carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.61 PPG clear of Groningen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Groningen's home form reads 9W 5D 8L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Feyenoord have taken 2.00 points per game from 22 outings (13W 5D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Groningen are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Feyenoord are on 2.35 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Groningen have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Feyenoord in 60%.
Last 43 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Groningen
Blended
Feyenoord
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Groningen and Feyenoord in coming into this match?
Groningen have gone 18W 8D 17L in their last 43 games (1.44 PPG), while Feyenoord have gone 26W 10D 7L in their last 43 (2.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Groningen at home or Feyenoord away?
Feyenoord's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Groningen at home: 1.45 PPG; Feyenoord away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Groningen or Feyenoord been keeping clean sheets recently?
Groningen have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Feyenoord in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Feyenoord have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Jan 2023, when Feyenoord won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Groningen's record when hosting Feyenoord specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Groningen
3
Draws
5
Feyenoord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Feyenoord?
From 8 meetings on record, Groningen have won 0, Feyenoord have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Groningen and Feyenoord last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Feyenoord 3-1 Groningen.
Who has won more matches between Groningen and Feyenoord?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Groningen 59%, Feyenoord 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Groningen and 64% for Feyenoord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Groningen keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Feyenoord in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Groningen home games / Feyenoord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Groningen play Feyenoord?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Groningen's recent matches and 50% of Feyenoord's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Groningen vs Feyenoord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Groningen's matches and 64% of Feyenoord's.
Do Groningen and Feyenoord tend to score early?
Groningen have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Feyenoord in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.