Groningen 2-2 Feyenoord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Feyenoord at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Groningen face Feyenoord.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Feyenoord travel to Euroborg to take on Groningen in Eredivisie (matchday 5). The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 September 2024 at 18:45 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Groningen stand at 5W 5D 0L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Groningen have gone 7W 3D 0L in their last 10 home games (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Across their last 10 games, Feyenoord have recorded 7W 3D 0L — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Feyenoord away from home: 7W 3D 0L from their last 10 away games — 2.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Groningen 2.00 PPG, Feyenoord 2.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Groningen have won 0, Feyenoord 2, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Mar 2023, ended Groningen 0–1 Feyenoord — a Feyenoord win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Groningen in-play tendencies (last 37 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Feyenoord in-play tendencies (last 37 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 75%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Groningen 51% versus Feyenoord 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Groningen 60% | Feyenoord 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 1.23 xG and Feyenoord 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 0.936 / defence 0.959 | Feyenoord attack 1.385 / defence 0.842. League average goals — home 1.558 / away 1.307. Feyenoord have an above-average attack rating of 1.385, which lifts their away xG to 1.74. Data: built from Groningen's last 4 games and Feyenoord's last 37.
Result probabilities: Groningen 24% | Draw 30% | Feyenoord 46%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 4.16 | Draw 3.37 | Feyenoord 2.16. Feyenoord hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.23 / 1.74) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Feyenoord are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Feyenoord offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.97 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Groningen's last 10 home games and Feyenoord's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Groningen 40% (last 10 home games) | Feyenoord 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Groningen vs Feyenoord | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 5 | Venue: Euroborg • Kick-off: Saturday 14 September 2024 at 18:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Groningen 24% | Draw 30% | Feyenoord 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Groningen 1.23 / Feyenoord 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: Groningen attack 0.936 / def 0.959 | Feyenoord attack 1.385 / def 0.842 | league avg home 1.558 / away 1.307 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Groningen xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Feyenoord xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Groningen vs Feyenoord FAQs
What time does Groningen vs Feyenoord kick off?
Groningen vs Feyenoord kicked off at 18:45 UK time on Saturday 14 September 2024 at Euroborg.
What was the final score in Groningen vs Feyenoord?
Groningen 2 - 2 Feyenoord.
Where is Groningen vs Feyenoord being played?
The match is being played at Euroborg.
What competition is Groningen vs Feyenoord part of?
Groningen vs Feyenoord is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 5) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Groningen vs Feyenoord?
Our statistical model gives Groningen a 24% chance of winning, Feyenoord a 46% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs Feyenoord?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Groningen and Feyenoord will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Groningen vs Feyenoord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Groningen's attack rating (0.94) and Feyenoord's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Feyenoord's attack versus Groningen's defence, projects 1.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Groningen's last 4 games and Feyenoord's last 37 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
24%
4.16
30%
3.37
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Groningen xG
Total xG
2.97
1.74
Feyenoord xG
4.16
24%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
18%
5.69
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
4%
23.64
14%
7.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 8.9 | 7.8 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 11.0 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.8 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Groningen vs Feyenoord Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs Feyenoord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Groningen and Feyenoord expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Groningen and 1.74 for Feyenoord, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs Feyenoord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Groningen come into this having played 37 games, going 22W 10D 5L for 2.05 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-D.
On the other side, Feyenoord sit at 2.41 PPG from 37 outings (27W 8D 2L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Groningen on 2.05 PPG, Feyenoord on 2.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Groningen's home form reads 12W 5D 1L across their last 18 home games, a 2.28 PPG return.
Away from home, Feyenoord have taken 2.50 points per game from their last 18 away games (14W 3D 1L).
Goals in Recent Form
Groningen are averaging 1.95 goals scored and 0.81 conceded per game recently; Feyenoord are on 2.68 scored and 0.78 conceded. Groningen's scoring rate against Feyenoord's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Groningen have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Feyenoord in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Groningen
Early Season
Feyenoord
Early Season
Groningen (Home) vs Feyenoord (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Groningen
Early Season
Feyenoord
Early Season
❓ Groningen vs Feyenoord Form FAQs
What form are Groningen and Feyenoord in coming into this match?
Groningen have gone 22W 10D 5L in their last 37 games (2.05 PPG), while Feyenoord have gone 27W 8D 2L in their last 37 (2.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Groningen at home or Feyenoord away?
Feyenoord's away record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Groningen at home: 2.28 PPG; Feyenoord away: 2.50 PPG.
Have Groningen or Feyenoord been keeping clean sheets recently?
Groningen have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Feyenoord in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from December 2021. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was on 25 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Feyenoord have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 15 Jan 2023, when Feyenoord won Groningen 0-3 Feyenoord.
Groningen's record when hosting Feyenoord specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Groningen
3
Draws
5
Feyenoord
Recent Meetings
❓ Groningen vs Feyenoord H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Feyenoord?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Groningen have won 0, Feyenoord have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Groningen and Feyenoord last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 April 2026: Feyenoord 3-1 Groningen.
Who has won more matches between Groningen and Feyenoord?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Groningen 44%, Feyenoord 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Groningen and 67% for Feyenoord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Groningen keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Feyenoord in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Groningen home games / Feyenoord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Groningen vs Feyenoord Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Groningen and Feyenoord matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Groningen's recent matches and 61% of Feyenoord's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Groningen and Feyenoord matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Groningen's matches and 67% of Feyenoord's.
Do Groningen and Feyenoord matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Groningen's recent matches and 89% of Feyenoord's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Groningen and Feyenoord share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Groningen and Feyenoord finished level at 2-2 at Euroborg, Regular Season - 5, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 1.23 xG and Feyenoord 1.74 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 0.94 / defence 0.96 against Feyenoord attack 1.39 / defence 0.84, drawn from 4/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Groningen 24% | Draw 30% | Feyenoord 46%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 60%, Feyenoord 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Groningen's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Feyenoord's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Groningen 2.05 PPG, Feyenoord 2.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Groningen (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Feyenoord (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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