Feyenoord 1-2 Utrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Feyenoord (39%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Feyenoord face Utrecht.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Utrecht make the trip to Stadion Feijenoord to face Feyenoord in Eredivisie (matchday 18). The match kicks off on Sunday 12 January 2025 at 13:30 UK time.
Current Form
Feyenoord's record over their last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L (2.20 PPG). Last five: W D W W L. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Feyenoord at home: 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Utrecht have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L D W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Utrecht's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 4D 0L (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Feyenoord. A 0.50 PPG lead over Utrecht (2.20 vs 1.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Across the 6 H2H matches in our data, Feyenoord have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins, with Utrecht managing 0 and 1 draw.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.8 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 27 Oct 2024, ended Feyenoord 2–0 Utrecht — a Feyenoord win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Feyenoord and goals — 5 wins from 6 H2H matches and an average of 3.8 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Feyenoord — key trading statistics (last 51 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 55% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 67%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
Utrecht — key trading statistics (last 51 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Feyenoord 57% and Utrecht 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Feyenoord 67% | Utrecht 55%). Note also that Utrecht surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Feyenoord recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 67% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feyenoord 1.74 xG and Utrecht 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feyenoord attack 1.206 / defence 0.957 | Utrecht attack 1.370 / defence 0.837. League average goals — home 1.720 / away 1.321. Utrecht have an above-average attack rating of 1.370, which lifts their away xG to 1.73. Data: built from Feyenoord's last 51 games and Utrecht's last 51.
Result probabilities: Feyenoord 39% | Draw 22% | Utrecht 39%. Fair-value odds: Feyenoord 2.57 | Draw 4.46 | Utrecht 2.58. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 39% to win, with the draw at 22%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS Yes probability 68% | Total xG 3.47. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.47 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% — both xG figures (1.74 / 1.73) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Feyenoord 39% and Utrecht 39%, with the draw at 22%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
The Poisson model projects 3.47 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Feyenoord's last 10 home games and Utrecht's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Feyenoord 50% (last 10 home games) | Utrecht 90% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feyenoord vs Utrecht | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 18 | Venue: Stadion Feijenoord • Kick-off: Sunday 12 January 2025 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feyenoord 39% | Draw 22% | Utrecht 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% (Under 33%) | BTTS Yes 68% (No 32%) | xG Feyenoord 1.74 / Utrecht 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Feyenoord attack 1.206 / def 0.957 | Utrecht attack 1.370 / def 0.837 | league avg home 1.720 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — Feyenoord and Utrecht level at 39% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Feyenoord xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Utrecht xG
68%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Feyenoord vs Utrecht FAQs
What time does Feyenoord vs Utrecht kick off?
Feyenoord vs Utrecht kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 12 January 2025 at Stadion Feijenoord.
What was the final score in Feyenoord vs Utrecht?
Feyenoord 1 - 2 Utrecht.
Where is Feyenoord vs Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Feijenoord.
What competition is Feyenoord vs Utrecht part of?
Feyenoord vs Utrecht is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 18) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Feyenoord vs Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives Feyenoord a 39% chance of winning, Utrecht a 39% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Feyenoord vs Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Feyenoord and Utrecht will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Feyenoord vs Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Feyenoord's attack rating (1.21) and Utrecht's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.74 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Utrecht's attack (1.37x) against Feyenoord's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.73.
These ratings are built from Feyenoord's last 51 games and Utrecht's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.1%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
39%
2.57
22%
4.46
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Feyenoord xG
Total xG
3.47
1.73
Utrecht xG
2.57
39%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.10
Clean Sheet
18%
5.65
18%
5.67
Win to Nil
7%
14.52
7%
14.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 9.4 | 8.1 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.1 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Feyenoord vs Utrecht Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Feyenoord vs Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Feyenoord and Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Feyenoord and 1.73 for Utrecht, a combined total of 3.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Feyenoord vs Utrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Feyenoord come into this having played 51 games, going 36W 11D 4L for 2.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-L.
On the other side, Utrecht sit at 1.75 PPG from 51 outings (25W 14D 12L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-L across their last five.
Feyenoord carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of Utrecht — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Feyenoord's home form reads 18W 4D 2L across their last 24 home games, a 2.42 PPG return.
Away from home, Utrecht have taken 1.71 points per game from their last 24 away games (11W 8D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Feyenoord are averaging 2.59 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Utrecht are on 1.71 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Utrecht in 65%.
Defensively: Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feyenoord
Blended
Utrecht
Blended
Feyenoord (Home) vs Utrecht (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Feyenoord
Blended
Utrecht
Blended
❓ Feyenoord vs Utrecht Form FAQs
What form are Feyenoord and Utrecht in coming into this match?
Feyenoord have gone 36W 11D 4L in their last 51 games (2.33 PPG), while Utrecht have gone 25W 14D 12L in their last 51 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feyenoord at home or Utrecht away?
Feyenoord's home record (2.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feyenoord at home: 2.42 PPG; Utrecht away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Feyenoord or Utrecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Utrecht in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Feyenoord and Utrecht, the earliest from April 2022. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was as recently as 20 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Feyenoord have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Feyenoord won Feyenoord 5-0 Utrecht on 20 Sep 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Feyenoord have gone 5W 0D 1L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Utrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Feyenoord
1
Draws
1
Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Feyenoord vs Utrecht H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Utrecht?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Feyenoord have won 8, Utrecht have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Feyenoord and Utrecht last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2026: Feyenoord 5-0 Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Feyenoord and Utrecht?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Feyenoord 50%, Utrecht 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Feyenoord and 54% for Utrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feyenoord keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feyenoord home games / Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Feyenoord vs Utrecht Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Feyenoord and Utrecht matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Feyenoord's games and 62% of Utrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Feyenoord and Utrecht matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Feyenoord's matches and 54% of Utrecht's.
Do Feyenoord and Utrecht matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Feyenoord's recent matches and 79% of Utrecht's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Utrecht defy the odds to beat Feyenoord 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Utrecht beat Feyenoord 1-2 at Stadion Feijenoord, Regular Season - 18, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Feyenoord 1.74 xG and Utrecht 1.73 xG, a combined 3.47. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feyenoord attack 1.21 / defence 0.96 against Utrecht attack 1.37 / defence 0.84, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Feyenoord 39% | Draw 22% | Utrecht 39%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Utrecht win had been the model's second-ranked read at 39%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feyenoord 67%, Utrecht 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Feyenoord's trading profile (51 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Utrecht's trading profile (51 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.75. Form was overturned, with Utrecht winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Feyenoord (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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