FC Volendam 0-4 Utrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Utrecht at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Volendam vs Utrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 14 as FC Volendam welcome Utrecht to Kras Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 12 November 2022 at 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, FC Volendam have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.20 PPG return. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.90 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Volendam at Kras Stadion this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.20 — FC Volendam are significantly better at Kras Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Utrecht — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Utrecht have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Utrecht are 1.70 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
FC Volendam trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 96% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
Utrecht trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Volendam 71% and Utrecht 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Volendam 67% | Utrecht 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 1.66 xG and Utrecht 2.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 0.820 / defence 1.520 | Utrecht attack 1.179 / defence 1.265. League average goals — home 1.598 / away 1.313. Utrecht bring a strong defensive rating of 1.265 — this is suppressing FC Volendam's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 FC Volendam games / 47 Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 27% | Draw 20% | Utrecht 53%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 3.70 | Draw 5.00 | Utrecht 1.89. Utrecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 4.01. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 4.01 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (1.66 / 2.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Utrecht as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 4.01 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 76% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 73%. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 80% | Utrecht 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs Utrecht | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Nov 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 27% | Draw 20% | Utrecht 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 73% | xG FC Volendam 1.66 / Utrecht 2.35 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 0.820 / def 1.520 | Utrecht attack 1.179 / def 1.265 | league avg home 1.598 / away 1.313 • Poisson stance: Utrecht (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
2.35
Utrecht xG
73%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs Utrecht kick off?
FC Volendam vs Utrecht kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 12 November 2022 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs Utrecht?
FC Volendam 0 - 4 Utrecht.
Where is FC Volendam vs Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs Utrecht part of?
FC Volendam vs Utrecht is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 27% chance of winning, Utrecht a 53% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both FC Volendam and Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Utrecht?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Volendam and Utrecht in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Utrecht (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Volendam's attack rating (0.82) and Utrecht's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Utrecht's attack versus FC Volendam's defence, projects 2.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.0%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Utrecht Win
27%
3.73
20%
5.01
53%
1.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.1%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
4.01
2.35
Utrecht xG
3.73
27%
Home win
5.01
20%
Draw
1.88
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.36
27%
BTTS No
3.76
Clean Sheet
9%
10.53
19%
5.24
Win to Nil
3%
39.28
10%
9.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 3.0 | 7.1 | 8.3 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 5.9 | 6.9 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.5 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.3%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for FC Volendam and 2.35 for Utrecht, a combined total of 4.01.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs Utrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Volendam come into this having played 49 games, going 22W 14D 13L for 1.63 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Utrecht sit at 1.45 PPG from 49 outings (19W 14D 16L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Volendam on 1.63 PPG, Utrecht on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
FC Volendam's home form reads 14W 3D 7L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.88 PPG return.
Away from home, Utrecht have taken 1.12 points per game from 24 outings (7W 6D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Volendam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Volendam are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Utrecht are on 1.49 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Utrecht in 61%.
Last 49 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Blended
Utrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and Utrecht in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 22W 14D 13L in their last 49 games (1.63 PPG), while Utrecht have gone 19W 14D 16L in their last 49 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or Utrecht away?
FC Volendam's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 1.88 PPG; Utrecht away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Nov 2022, when Utrecht won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Volendam's record when hosting Utrecht specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
FC Volendam
1
Draws
3
Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Utrecht?
From 6 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 2, Utrecht have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when FC Volendam 2-1 Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and Utrecht?
Utrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 96% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Volendam at 75%, Utrecht at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for FC Volendam and 67% for Utrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play Utrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of FC Volendam's games and 62% of Utrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Volendam vs Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of FC Volendam's matches and 67% of Utrecht's.
Do FC Volendam and Utrecht tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 96% of their recent matches, Utrecht in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Utrecht run riot with a 0-4 hammering of FC Volendam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Utrecht beat FC Volendam 0-4 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 1.66 xG and Utrecht 2.35 xG, a combined 4.01. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. FC Volendam fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Utrecht outscored their 2.35 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 0.82 / defence 1.52 against Utrecht attack 1.18 / defence 1.26, drawn from 13/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 27% | Draw 20% | Utrecht 53%, with Utrecht to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 67%, Utrecht 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Utrecht's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Volendam 1.63 PPG, Utrecht 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Utrecht win broke the near-deadlock. FC Volendam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.21 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Utrecht (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.