FC Volendam 3-2 Excelsior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Volendam at 69%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Volendam vs Excelsior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Kras Stadion plays host to FC Volendam versus Excelsior in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off: Sunday 28 May 2023 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Volendam have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Volendam have posted 7W 1D 2L at Kras Stadion — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — FC Volendam are significantly better at Kras Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Excelsior (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Excelsior have posted 0W 2D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for FC Volendam, 1.20 for Excelsior — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for FC Volendam, 2 for Excelsior and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.7 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 20 Jan 2023, ended 0–2 with Excelsior winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
FC Volendam goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Excelsior goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Volendam 68% versus Excelsior 51%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Volendam 69% | Excelsior 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 2.02 xG and Excelsior 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 1.008 / defence 1.108 | Excelsior attack 0.445 / defence 1.191. League average goals — home 1.683 / away 1.290. Data: 33 FC Volendam games / 33 Excelsior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 69% | Draw 22% | Excelsior 9%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 1.45 | Draw 4.55 | Excelsior 11.11. The model has a clear lean to FC Volendam (69%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Volendam at 69% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 70% | Excelsior 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs Excelsior | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 28 May 2023, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 69% | Draw 22% | Excelsior 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 42% | xG FC Volendam 2.02 / Excelsior 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 1.008 / def 1.108 | Excelsior attack 0.445 / def 1.191 | league avg home 1.683 / away 1.290 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Excelsior xG
42%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs Excelsior kick off?
FC Volendam vs Excelsior kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 28 May 2023 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs Excelsior?
FC Volendam 3 - 2 Excelsior.
Where is FC Volendam vs Excelsior being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs Excelsior part of?
FC Volendam vs Excelsior is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs Excelsior?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 69% chance of winning, Excelsior a 9% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs Excelsior?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both FC Volendam and Excelsior will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs Excelsior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Excelsior?
Record (3 meetings): FC Volendam 0W | Draws 1 | Excelsior 2W.
What form are FC Volendam and Excelsior in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Excelsior (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from FC Volendam's attack rating (1.01) and Excelsior's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 2.02 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Excelsior's attack (0.45x) against FC Volendam's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 0.64.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 1-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
69%
1.46
22%
4.49
9%
10.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
3 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
2.66
0.64
Excelsior xG
1.46
69%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
10.87
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
53%
1.89
13%
7.55
Win to Nil
36%
2.76
1%
82.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 9.0 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.3 | 9.1 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs Excelsior?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and Excelsior expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for FC Volendam and 0.64 for Excelsior, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs Excelsior?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC Volendam come into this having played 71 games, going 30W 18D 23L for 1.52 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L.
On the other side, Excelsior sit at 1.37 PPG from 71 outings (27W 16D 28L), a run that reads W-D-L-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for FC Volendam against 1.37 for Excelsior. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
FC Volendam's home form reads 21W 4D 10L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.91 PPG return.
Away from home, Excelsior have taken 1.09 points per game from 35 outings (10W 8D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Volendam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC Volendam are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Excelsior are on 1.61 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 71 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Current Season
Excelsior
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and Excelsior in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 30W 18D 23L in their last 71 games (1.52 PPG), while Excelsior have gone 27W 16D 28L in their last 71 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or Excelsior away?
FC Volendam's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 1.91 PPG; Excelsior away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Excelsior won 4-0 on 12 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Volendam have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Excelsior — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FC Volendam
3
Draws
5
Excelsior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Excelsior?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 2, Excelsior have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and Excelsior last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Excelsior 1-1 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and Excelsior?
Excelsior have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Excelsior see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Volendam 74%, Excelsior 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for FC Volendam and 54% for Excelsior. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Excelsior in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / Excelsior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play Excelsior?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of FC Volendam's games and 49% of Excelsior's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Volendam vs Excelsior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of FC Volendam's matches and 54% of Excelsior's.
Do FC Volendam and Excelsior tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Excelsior in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Volendam edge out Excelsior 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Volendam beat Excelsior 3-2 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 34, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 2.02 xG and Excelsior 0.64 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. FC Volendam beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Excelsior outscored their 0.64 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 1.01 / defence 1.11 against Excelsior attack 0.45 / defence 1.19, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 69% | Draw 22% | Excelsior 9%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 69%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 69%, Excelsior 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Excelsior's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Volendam 1.52 PPG, Excelsior 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Volendam win broke the near-deadlock. FC Volendam (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.09 average — above their attacking norm. Excelsior (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.