FC Eindhoven 3-1 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Relegation Round sees De Graafschap travel to Jan Louwers Stadion to take on FC Eindhoven. The game is scheduled for Friday 13 May 2022, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, FC Eindhoven have gone 0W 1D 0L from 1 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. FC Eindhoven have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, De Graafschap stand at 0W 1D 0L from 1 Eredivisie matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. De Graafschap have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC Eindhoven 1.00 PPG, De Graafschap 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 100% of each side's relevant games (using overall form). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for FC Eindhoven, 0 for De Graafschap and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Eindhoven 1.14 xG and De Graafschap 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Eindhoven attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | De Graafschap attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.253. Data: 0 FC Eindhoven games / 0 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 34% | Draw 28% | De Graafschap 38%. Fair-value odds: FC Eindhoven 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | De Graafschap 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is De Graafschap at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on De Graafschap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eredivisie, Relegation Round | Venue: Jan Louwers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 13 May 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 34% | Draw 28% | De Graafschap 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG FC Eindhoven 1.14 / De Graafschap 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: FC Eindhoven attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | De Graafschap attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
FC Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
1.23
De Graafschap xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap kick off?
FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 13 May 2022 at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap?
FC Eindhoven 3 - 1 De Graafschap.
Where is FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What competition is FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap part of?
FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap is a Relegation Round fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives FC Eindhoven a 34% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap?
Record (1 meetings): FC Eindhoven 0W | Draws 1 | De Graafschap 0W.
What form are FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap in?
FC Eindhoven (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D. De Graafschap (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FC Eindhoven's attack rating (0.85) and De Graafschap's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, De Graafschap's attack versus FC Eindhoven's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 0-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
34%
2.94
28%
3.59
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
FC Eindhoven xG
Total xG
2.37
1.23
De Graafschap xG
2.94
34%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
10%
10.01
12%
8.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 11.5 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.1 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.5 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for FC Eindhoven and 1.23 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Eindhoven's recent record stands at 0W 1D 0L from 1 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D in the last five. It's still early in the season for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
De Graafschap, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 0L across 1 games — 1.00 PPG, with D in their last five. It's still early in the season for De Graafschap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Eindhoven on 1.00 PPG, De Graafschap on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
FC Eindhoven are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: FC Eindhoven have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; De Graafschap in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Eindhoven
Early Season
De Graafschap
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
FC Eindhoven have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Feb 2023, when De Graafschap won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Eindhoven's record when hosting De Graafschap specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FC Eindhoven
2
Draws
5
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Eindhoven have won 3, De Graafschap have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when FC Eindhoven 2-2 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Eindhoven home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Eindhoven play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of FC Eindhoven's games and 100% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of FC Eindhoven's recent games and 0% of De Graafschap's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap tend to score early?
FC Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Eindhoven cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over De Graafschap.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Eindhoven beat De Graafschap 3-1 at Jan Louwers Stadion, Relegation Round, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 1.14 xG and De Graafschap 1.23 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. FC Eindhoven beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against De Graafschap attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 34% | Draw 28% | De Graafschap 38%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual FC Eindhoven win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 0%, De Graafschap 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Eindhoven 1.00 PPG, De Graafschap 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Eindhoven win broke the near-deadlock. FC Eindhoven scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. De Graafschap shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.