Excelsior 1-1 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Excelsior at 51% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Excelsior vs FC Volendam encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Excelsior and FC Volendam meet at Stadion Woudestein in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 33. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 15:45 UTC.
Form
Excelsior (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Excelsior's home record at Stadion Woudestein: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
FC Volendam's overall Eredivisie record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, FC Volendam have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Excelsior have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins from 9 meetings, with FC Volendam managing just 2 victories and 2 draws shared.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.6 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2025, ended 2–1 with Excelsior winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Excelsior and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.6 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Excelsior — key trading statistics (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games).
FC Volendam — key trading statistics (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Excelsior 59% versus FC Volendam 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Excelsior 60% | FC Volendam 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior 1.65 xG and FC Volendam 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior attack 0.891 / defence 1.071 | FC Volendam attack 0.664 / defence 1.086. League average goals — home 1.706 / away 1.294. Data: 32 Excelsior games / 32 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Excelsior 51% | Draw 31% | FC Volendam 18%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior 1.96 | Draw 3.23 | FC Volendam 5.56. Excelsior hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Excelsior are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Excelsior if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Excelsior 50% | FC Volendam 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stadion Woudestein • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior 51% | Draw 31% | FC Volendam 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Excelsior 1.65 / FC Volendam 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior attack 0.891 / def 1.071 | FC Volendam attack 0.664 / def 1.086 | league avg home 1.706 / away 1.294 • Poisson stance: Excelsior (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Excelsior xG
Expected Goals
0.92
FC Volendam xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Excelsior vs FC Volendam kick off?
Excelsior vs FC Volendam kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 10 May 2026 at Stadion Woudestein.
What was the final score in Excelsior vs FC Volendam?
Excelsior 1 - 1 FC Volendam.
Where is Excelsior vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Woudestein.
What competition is Excelsior vs FC Volendam part of?
Excelsior vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior a 51% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 18% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Excelsior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Excelsior and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will Excelsior vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and FC Volendam?
Record (9 meetings): Excelsior 5W | Draws 2 | FC Volendam 2W.
What form are Excelsior and FC Volendam in?
Excelsior (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-W-W. FC Volendam (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Excelsior's attack at 0.89x the league average against FC Volendam's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.65 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Volendam's attack (0.66x) against Excelsior's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 2-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Excelsior Win
51%
1.95
31%
3.22
18%
5.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Excelsior xG
Total xG
2.57
0.92
FC Volendam xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
5.65
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
19%
5.21
Win to Nil
20%
4.89
3%
29.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 11.6 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Excelsior and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Excelsior and 0.92 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior vs FC Volendam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 70 outings, Excelsior have picked up 1.54 PPG on a 31W 15D 24L record — D-L-D-W-W across the most recent five.
FC Volendam's form line: 34W 11D 25L from 70 games, 1.61 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.54 PPG for Excelsior against 1.61 for FC Volendam. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Excelsior have posted 1.77 PPG from 35 outings (19W 5D 11L).
On the road, FC Volendam have gone 13W 6D 16L from 35 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Excelsior come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Excelsior are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 1.71 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam in 60%.
Last 70 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior
Current Season
FC Volendam
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Excelsior and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
Excelsior have gone 31W 15D 24L in their last 70 games (1.54 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 34W 11D 25L in their last 70 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Excelsior at home or FC Volendam away?
Excelsior's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Excelsior at home: 1.77 PPG; FC Volendam away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Excelsior won 4-0 on 12 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Excelsior have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Volendam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Excelsior
3
Draws
2
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and FC Volendam?
From 10 meetings on record, Excelsior have won 5, FC Volendam have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Excelsior 1-1 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between Excelsior and FC Volendam?
Excelsior have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Excelsior 46%, FC Volendam 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (Excelsior) and 66% (FC Volendam). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Excelsior keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; FC Volendam in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Excelsior play FC Volendam?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Excelsior's recent matches and 57% of FC Volendam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Excelsior vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 51% of Excelsior's matches and 66% of FC Volendam's.
Do Excelsior and FC Volendam tend to score early?
Excelsior have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Excelsior and FC Volendam share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Woudestein, Regular Season - 33, as Excelsior and FC Volendam drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 1.65 xG and FC Volendam 0.92 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 0.89 / defence 1.07 against FC Volendam attack 0.66 / defence 1.09, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior 51% | Draw 31% | FC Volendam 18%, with Excelsior to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 60%, FC Volendam 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Excelsior's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
FC Volendam's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Excelsior 1.54 PPG, FC Volendam 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.