Cambuur 2-1 Heracles – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cambuur at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cambuur vs Heracles fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cambuur and Heracles meet at Cambuurstadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 23 September 2021 at 17:45 UTC.
Current Form
Cambuur's overall Eredivisie record this term: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 3.40 conceded. However, 3.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Cambuur have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cambuur's form when playing at home: 2W 0D 1L across 3 games at Cambuurstadion this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.67 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Cambuur are significantly better at Cambuurstadion than their overall form suggests.
Heracles (all games): 1W 1D 2L across 4 Eredivisie outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Heracles have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Cambuur against 1.00 for Heracles. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Cambuur half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 75%.
Heracles half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambuur 50% versus Heracles 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambuur 75% | Heracles 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 1.69 xG and Heracles 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 1.252 / defence 1.134 | Heracles attack 0.812 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.239 / away 1.419. Cambuur carry an above-average attack strength of 1.252 — their λ of 1.69 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 5 Cambuur games / 4 Heracles games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambuur 47% | Draw 24% | Heracles 30%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 2.13 | Draw 4.17 | Heracles 3.33. Cambuur hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.69 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cambuur as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cambuur if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.00 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cambuur 67% | Heracles 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs Heracles | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Cambuurstadion • Kick-off: Thursday 23 Sep 2021, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 47% | Draw 24% | Heracles 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Cambuur 1.69 / Heracles 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 1.252 / def 1.134 | Heracles attack 0.812 / def 1.092 | league avg home 1.239 / away 1.419 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Heracles xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambuur vs Heracles kick off?
Cambuur vs Heracles kicked off at 17:45 on Thursday 23 September 2021 at Cambuurstadion.
What was the final score in Cambuur vs Heracles?
Cambuur 2 - 1 Heracles.
Where is Cambuur vs Heracles being played?
The match is being played at Cambuurstadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs Heracles part of?
Cambuur vs Heracles is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs Heracles?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 47% chance of winning, Heracles a 30% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs Heracles?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Cambuur and Heracles will score (BTTS).
Will Cambuur vs Heracles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Heracles?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cambuur and Heracles in?
Cambuur (all comps): 2W-0D-3L in 5 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 3.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Heracles (all comps): 1W-1D-2L in 4 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Cambuur's attacking strength (1.25x league average) is weighed against Heracles's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.69. Flip it around — Heracles's attack (0.81x) against Cambuur's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 5/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
47%
2.15
24%
4.20
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Cambuur xG
Total xG
3.00
1.31
Heracles xG
2.15
47%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
18%
5.44
Win to Nil
13%
7.94
5%
18.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.0 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.3 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs Heracles?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Cambuur and Heracles expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Cambuur and 1.31 for Heracles, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs Heracles?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cambuur's recent record stands at 2W 0D 2L from 4 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Cambuur, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Heracles, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 2L across 4 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-D-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Heracles, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cambuur by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Heracles heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cambuur are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 3.75 conceded per game recently; Heracles are on 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 4 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Early Season
Heracles
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambuur and Heracles in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 2W 0D 2L in their last 4 games (1.50 PPG), while Heracles have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 December 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Cambuur
1
Draws
0
Heracles
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Heracles?
From 2 meetings on record, Cambuur have won 1, Heracles have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and Heracles last play each other?
They last met on 22 December 2021, when Heracles 1-1 Cambuur.
Who has won more matches between Cambuur and Heracles?
Cambuur have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambuur 50%, Heracles 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Cambuur) and 25% (Heracles).
On the defensive side: Heracles in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / Heracles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambuur play Heracles?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Cambuur's recent matches and 50% of Heracles's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cambuur vs Heracles usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Cambuur's recent games and 25% of Heracles's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cambuur and Heracles tend to score early?
Cambuur have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Heracles in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cambuur edge out Heracles 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambuur beat Heracles 2-1 at Cambuurstadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 1.69 xG and Heracles 1.31 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 1.25 / defence 1.13 against Heracles attack 0.81 / defence 1.09, drawn from 5/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambuur 47% | Draw 24% | Heracles 30%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 75%, Heracles 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambuur's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Heracles's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cambuur arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Cambuur conceded 1 against a 3.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.