Cambuur 0-3 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cambuur at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cambuur vs FC Volendam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Cambuur Stadion plays host to Cambuur versus FC Volendam in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Sunday 8 January 2023 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
Cambuur's overall Eredivisie record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambuur's home record at Cambuur Stadion: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
FC Volendam have collected 0.20 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 0W 2D 8L. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC Volendam have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.40 for Cambuur, 0.20 for FC Volendam — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Cambuur half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
FC Volendam half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cambuur 58% and FC Volendam 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Cambuur 62% | FC Volendam 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 1.50 xG and FC Volendam 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 0.693 / defence 1.021 | FC Volendam attack 0.738 / defence 1.373. League average goals — home 1.576 / away 1.319. Cambuur's attack strength of 0.693 is below the league average — the 1.50 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. FC Volendam bring a strong defensive rating of 1.373 — this is suppressing Cambuur's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Cambuur games / 14 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambuur 47% | Draw 29% | FC Volendam 23%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 2.13 | Draw 3.45 | FC Volendam 4.35. Cambuur hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cambuur are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cambuur if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cambuur 30% | FC Volendam 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Cambuur Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Jan 2023, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 47% | Draw 29% | FC Volendam 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Cambuur 1.50 / FC Volendam 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 0.693 / def 1.021 | FC Volendam attack 0.738 / def 1.373 | league avg home 1.576 / away 1.319 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
0.99
FC Volendam xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambuur vs FC Volendam kick off?
Cambuur vs FC Volendam kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 8 January 2023 at Cambuur Stadion.
What was the final score in Cambuur vs FC Volendam?
Cambuur 0 - 3 FC Volendam.
Where is Cambuur vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at Cambuur Stadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs FC Volendam part of?
Cambuur vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 47% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 23% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Cambuur and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will Cambuur vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and FC Volendam?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cambuur and FC Volendam in?
Cambuur (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. FC Volendam (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.60 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Cambuur's attack at 0.69x the league average against FC Volendam's defence at 1.37x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Volendam's attack (0.74x) against Cambuur's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 48/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
47%
2.12
29%
3.41
23%
4.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Cambuur xG
Total xG
2.49
0.99
FC Volendam xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
4.27
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
22%
4.48
Win to Nil
17%
5.71
5%
19.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.3 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Cambuur and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Cambuur and 0.99 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs FC Volendam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cambuur come into this having played 48 games, going 13W 8D 27L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Volendam sit at 1.58 PPG from 48 outings (21W 13D 14L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Volendam carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Cambuur — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Cambuur's home form reads 6W 3D 15L across 24 games on their own ground, a 0.88 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Volendam have taken 1.42 points per game from 24 outings (8W 10D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Volendam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cambuur are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 1.77 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam in 71%.
Last 48 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Blended
FC Volendam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambuur and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 13W 8D 27L in their last 48 games (0.98 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 21W 13D 14L in their last 48 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or FC Volendam away?
FC Volendam's away record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 0.88 PPG; FC Volendam away: 1.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
FC Volendam go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Volendam won 0-3 on 8 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cambuur have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against FC Volendam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Cambuur
0
Draws
4
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and FC Volendam?
From 4 meetings on record, Cambuur have won 0, FC Volendam have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2025, when FC Volendam 4-1 Cambuur.
Who has won more matches between Cambuur and FC Volendam?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Cambuur, 67% for FC Volendam — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Cambuur) and 54% (FC Volendam). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambuur play FC Volendam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Cambuur's games and 67% of FC Volendam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cambuur vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Cambuur's matches and 54% of FC Volendam's.
Do Cambuur and FC Volendam tend to score early?
Cambuur have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC Volendam run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Cambuur.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Volendam beat Cambuur 0-3 at Cambuur Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 1.50 xG and FC Volendam 0.99 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Cambuur fell 1.5 short of their projected output. FC Volendam outscored their 0.99 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 0.69 / defence 1.02 against FC Volendam attack 0.74 / defence 1.37, drawn from 48/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambuur 47% | Draw 29% | FC Volendam 23%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a FC Volendam win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 62%, FC Volendam 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambuur's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC Volendam's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Volendam arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 0.98. That form edge translated into the three points. Cambuur (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Volendam (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.54 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.