AZ Alkmaar 5-1 Utrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Utrecht at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AZ Alkmaar vs Utrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AZ Alkmaar and Utrecht meet at AFAS Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 17 October 2021 at 11:15 UTC.
Current Form
AZ Alkmaar's overall Eredivisie record this term: 3W 0D 4L from 7 games (1.29 PPG). Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. AZ Alkmaar have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Utrecht have collected 2.12 PPG across 8 Eredivisie outings this season: 5W 2D 1L. Last five: L D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.25 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.62 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets from 8 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Utrecht's away record: 2W 1D 1L from 4 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.75 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.25 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 4 games (75%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Utrecht arrive in superior form — a 0.83 PPG advantage (2.12 vs 1.29) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
AZ Alkmaar half-time and goal-timing data (7 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games; Over 3.5 in 71%.
Utrecht half-time and goal-timing data (7 games): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AZ Alkmaar 57% versus Utrecht 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (AZ Alkmaar 86% | Utrecht 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AZ Alkmaar 1.03 xG and Utrecht 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.135 / defence 1.157 | Utrecht attack 0.849 / defence 0.687. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 1.433. Utrecht's defence strength of 0.687 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 7 AZ Alkmaar games / 8 Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 28% | Draw 27% | Utrecht 45%. Fair-value odds: AZ Alkmaar 3.57 | Draw 3.70 | Utrecht 2.22. Utrecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Utrecht at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Utrecht if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: AZ Alkmaar 57% | Utrecht 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AZ Alkmaar vs Utrecht | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: AFAS Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Oct 2021, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 28% | Draw 27% | Utrecht 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG AZ Alkmaar 1.03 / Utrecht 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.135 / def 1.157 | Utrecht attack 0.849 / def 0.687 | league avg home 1.327 / away 1.433 • Poisson stance: Utrecht (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
AZ Alkmaar xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Utrecht xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AZ Alkmaar vs Utrecht kick off?
AZ Alkmaar vs Utrecht kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 17 October 2021 at AFAS Stadion.
What was the final score in AZ Alkmaar vs Utrecht?
AZ Alkmaar 5 - 1 Utrecht.
Where is AZ Alkmaar vs Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Stadion.
What competition is AZ Alkmaar vs Utrecht part of?
AZ Alkmaar vs Utrecht is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win AZ Alkmaar vs Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives AZ Alkmaar a 28% chance of winning, Utrecht a 45% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in AZ Alkmaar vs Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both AZ Alkmaar and Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will AZ Alkmaar vs Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and Utrecht?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AZ Alkmaar and Utrecht in?
AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 3W-0D-4L in 7 | 1.29 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.71 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Utrecht (all comps): 5W-2D-1L in 8 | 2.12 PPG | GF 2.25 / GA 0.62 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from AZ Alkmaar's attack rating (1.14) and Utrecht's defence rating (0.69), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Utrecht's attack (0.85x) against AZ Alkmaar's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 7/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.6%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Utrecht Win
28%
3.61
27%
3.73
45%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
AZ Alkmaar xG
Total xG
2.44
1.41
Utrecht xG
3.61
28%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.20
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
24%
4.08
36%
2.82
Win to Nil
7%
14.74
16%
6.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 12.2 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.7 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.6 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AZ Alkmaar vs Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are AZ Alkmaar and Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for AZ Alkmaar and 1.41 for Utrecht, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for AZ Alkmaar vs Utrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
AZ Alkmaar's recent record stands at 3W 0D 4L from 7 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Utrecht, meanwhile, have gone 4W 2D 1L across 7 games — 2.00 PPG, with L-D-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Utrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Utrecht by 0.71 — a real, if not enormous, edge over AZ Alkmaar heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
AZ Alkmaar are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Utrecht are on 2.00 scored and 0.71 conceded. AZ Alkmaar's scoring rate against Utrecht's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Utrecht in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AZ Alkmaar
Early Season
Utrecht
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AZ Alkmaar and Utrecht in coming into this match?
AZ Alkmaar have gone 3W 0D 4L in their last 7 games (1.29 PPG), while Utrecht have gone 4W 2D 1L in their last 7 (2.00 PPG).
Have AZ Alkmaar or Utrecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
AZ Alkmaar have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Utrecht in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AZ Alkmaar won 5-1 on 17 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AZ Alkmaar have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Utrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
AZ Alkmaar
5
Draws
2
Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and Utrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, AZ Alkmaar have won 3, Utrecht have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did AZ Alkmaar and Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Utrecht 2-0 AZ Alkmaar.
Who has won more matches between AZ Alkmaar and Utrecht?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Utrecht see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AZ Alkmaar 57%, Utrecht 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 86% for AZ Alkmaar and 57% for Utrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 71% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Utrecht in 43%; AZ Alkmaar have failed to score in 29% of games; Utrecht in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AZ Alkmaar home games / Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AZ Alkmaar play Utrecht?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of AZ Alkmaar's recent matches and 43% of Utrecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AZ Alkmaar vs Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of AZ Alkmaar's matches and 57% of Utrecht's.
Do AZ Alkmaar and Utrecht tend to score early?
AZ Alkmaar have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Utrecht in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AZ Alkmaar run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Utrecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AZ Alkmaar beat Utrecht 5-1 at AFAS Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AZ Alkmaar 1.03 xG and Utrecht 1.41 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. AZ Alkmaar beat their projection by 4.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AZ Alkmaar attack 1.14 / defence 1.16 against Utrecht attack 0.85 / defence 0.69, drawn from 7/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AZ Alkmaar 28% | Draw 27% | Utrecht 45%, with Utrecht to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual AZ Alkmaar win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AZ Alkmaar 86%, Utrecht 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (7 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Utrecht's trading profile (7 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Utrecht arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.29. Form was overturned, with AZ Alkmaar winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. AZ Alkmaar scored 5 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Utrecht managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.