AZ Alkmaar 1-2 Sparta Rotterdam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours AZ Alkmaar (49%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as AZ Alkmaar face Sparta Rotterdam.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Sparta Rotterdam travel to AFAS Stadion to take on AZ Alkmaar in Eredivisie (matchday 20). The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 January 2025 at 15:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, AZ Alkmaar have gone 5W 3D 2L — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
AZ Alkmaar at home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Sparta Rotterdam stand at 0W 3D 7L — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone.
Sparta Rotterdam's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 exceeds their overall 0.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
AZ Alkmaar are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.50 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from AZ Alkmaar's last 10 home games and Sparta Rotterdam's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of AZ Alkmaar: 4 wins from 7 H2H matches against 1 for Sparta Rotterdam, with 2 draws.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Nov 2024, ended AZ Alkmaar 2–1 Sparta Rotterdam — a AZ Alkmaar win.
The head-to-head data gives AZ Alkmaar an edge — 4 wins from 7 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Data
AZ Alkmaar trading profile (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; of the 25 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
Sparta Rotterdam trading profile (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AZ Alkmaar 53% versus Sparta Rotterdam 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AZ Alkmaar 66% | Sparta Rotterdam 49%). Note also that Sparta Rotterdam surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while AZ Alkmaar recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AZ Alkmaar 1.46 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.050 / defence 0.866 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.834 / defence 0.832. League average goals — home 1.670 / away 1.320. Data: built from AZ Alkmaar's last 53 games and Sparta Rotterdam's last 53.
Result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 49% | Draw 26% | Sparta Rotterdam 25%. Fair-value odds: AZ Alkmaar 2.05 | Draw 3.78 | Sparta Rotterdam 4.05. AZ Alkmaar hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AZ Alkmaar at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AZ Alkmaar offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (AZ Alkmaar's last 10 home games and Sparta Rotterdam's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.7 goals per game across 7 H2H matches point the other way.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: AZ Alkmaar 70% (last 10 home games) | Sparta Rotterdam 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Rotterdam | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 20 | Venue: AFAS Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 26 January 2025 at 15:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 49% | Draw 26% | Sparta Rotterdam 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG AZ Alkmaar 1.46 / Sparta Rotterdam 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.050 / def 0.866 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.834 / def 0.832 | league avg home 1.670 / away 1.320 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
AZ Alkmaar xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Sparta Rotterdam xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Rotterdam FAQs
What time does AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Rotterdam kick off?
AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Rotterdam kicked off at 15:45 UK time on Sunday 26 January 2025 at AFAS Stadion.
What was the final score in AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Rotterdam?
AZ Alkmaar 1 - 2 Sparta Rotterdam.
Where is AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Rotterdam being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Stadion.
What competition is AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Rotterdam part of?
AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Rotterdam is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 20) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our statistical model gives AZ Alkmaar a 49% chance of winning, Sparta Rotterdam a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both AZ Alkmaar and Sparta Rotterdam will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Rotterdam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates AZ Alkmaar's attack at 1.05x the league average against Sparta Rotterdam's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sparta Rotterdam's attack versus AZ Alkmaar's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from AZ Alkmaar's last 53 games and Sparta Rotterdam's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
49%
2.05
26%
3.78
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
AZ Alkmaar xG
Total xG
2.41
0.95
Sparta Rotterdam xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
39%
2.60
23%
4.30
Win to Nil
19%
5.32
6%
17.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.5 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.1 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Rotterdam Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are AZ Alkmaar and Sparta Rotterdam expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for AZ Alkmaar and 0.95 for Sparta Rotterdam, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 53 outings, AZ Alkmaar have picked up 1.87 PPG on a 29W 12D 12L record — W-W-W-D-D across the most recent five.
Sparta Rotterdam's form line: 15W 15D 23L from 53 games, 1.13 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-D.
Put side by side, AZ Alkmaar are the form team by 0.74 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sparta Rotterdam.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, AZ Alkmaar have posted 2.00 PPG from their last 26 home games (16W 4D 6L).
On the road, Sparta Rotterdam have gone 9W 5D 12L from their last 26 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AZ Alkmaar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
AZ Alkmaar are averaging 1.94 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Sparta Rotterdam are on 1.25 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sparta Rotterdam in 62%.
Defensively: AZ Alkmaar have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AZ Alkmaar
Blended
Sparta Rotterdam
Blended
AZ Alkmaar (Home) vs Sparta Rotterdam (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
AZ Alkmaar
Blended
Sparta Rotterdam
Blended
❓ AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Rotterdam Form FAQs
What form are AZ Alkmaar and Sparta Rotterdam in coming into this match?
AZ Alkmaar have gone 29W 12D 12L in their last 53 games (1.87 PPG), while Sparta Rotterdam have gone 15W 15D 23L in their last 53 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AZ Alkmaar at home or Sparta Rotterdam away?
AZ Alkmaar's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AZ Alkmaar at home: 2.00 PPG; Sparta Rotterdam away: 1.23 PPG.
Have AZ Alkmaar or Sparta Rotterdam been keeping clean sheets recently?
AZ Alkmaar have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Sparta Rotterdam in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was on 22 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
AZ Alkmaar have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
AZ Alkmaar's record when hosting Sparta Rotterdam specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
AZ Alkmaar
2
Draws
2
Sparta Rotterdam
Recent Meetings
❓ AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Rotterdam H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and Sparta Rotterdam?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, AZ Alkmaar have won 6, Sparta Rotterdam have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AZ Alkmaar and Sparta Rotterdam last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 February 2026: AZ Alkmaar 3-1 Sparta Rotterdam.
Who has won more matches between AZ Alkmaar and Sparta Rotterdam?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Sparta Rotterdam see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AZ Alkmaar 54%, Sparta Rotterdam 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (AZ Alkmaar) and 46% (Sparta Rotterdam). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AZ Alkmaar keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Sparta Rotterdam in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AZ Alkmaar home games / Sparta Rotterdam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Rotterdam Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in AZ Alkmaar and Sparta Rotterdam matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of AZ Alkmaar's games and 62% of Sparta Rotterdam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are AZ Alkmaar and Sparta Rotterdam matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of AZ Alkmaar's matches and 46% of Sparta Rotterdam's.
Do AZ Alkmaar and Sparta Rotterdam matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of AZ Alkmaar's recent matches and 58% of Sparta Rotterdam's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sparta Rotterdam defy the odds to beat AZ Alkmaar 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Rotterdam beat AZ Alkmaar 1-2 at AFAS Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AZ Alkmaar 1.46 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 0.95 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Sparta Rotterdam outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AZ Alkmaar attack 1.05 / defence 0.87 against Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.83 / defence 0.83, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AZ Alkmaar 49% | Draw 26% | Sparta Rotterdam 25%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Sparta Rotterdam win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AZ Alkmaar 66%, Sparta Rotterdam 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, AZ Alkmaar arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.13. Form was overturned, with Sparta Rotterdam winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.31 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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