AZ Alkmaar 4-1 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AZ Alkmaar at 68%, yet other data sources diverge — this AZ Alkmaar vs Almere City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AZ Alkmaar and Almere City FC meet at AFAS Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 9 December 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
AZ Alkmaar (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at AFAS Stadion, AZ Alkmaar have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at AFAS Stadion.
Almere City FC's overall Eredivisie record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Almere City FC have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward AZ Alkmaar. A 0.50 PPG lead over Almere City FC (1.80 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading & In-Play
AZ Alkmaar — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Almere City FC — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AZ Alkmaar 58% versus Almere City FC 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AZ Alkmaar 60% | Almere City FC 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AZ Alkmaar 2.23 xG and Almere City FC 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.219 / defence 0.715 | Almere City FC attack 0.733 / defence 1.094. League average goals — home 1.678 / away 1.519. AZ Alkmaar's defence rating of 0.715 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 48 AZ Alkmaar games / 14 Almere City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 68% | Draw 21% | Almere City FC 10%. Fair-value odds: AZ Alkmaar 1.47 | Draw 4.76 | Almere City FC 10.00. The model has a clear lean to AZ Alkmaar (68%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar as the most likely outcome at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.03 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AZ Alkmaar 50% | Almere City FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AZ Alkmaar vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: AFAS Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Dec 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 68% | Draw 21% | Almere City FC 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 51% | xG AZ Alkmaar 2.23 / Almere City FC 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.219 / def 0.715 | Almere City FC attack 0.733 / def 1.094 | league avg home 1.678 / away 1.519 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.23
AZ Alkmaar xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Almere City FC xG
51%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AZ Alkmaar vs Almere City FC kick off?
AZ Alkmaar vs Almere City FC kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 9 December 2023 at AFAS Stadion.
What was the final score in AZ Alkmaar vs Almere City FC?
AZ Alkmaar 4 - 1 Almere City FC.
Where is AZ Alkmaar vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Stadion.
What competition is AZ Alkmaar vs Almere City FC part of?
AZ Alkmaar vs Almere City FC is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win AZ Alkmaar vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives AZ Alkmaar a 68% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 10% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in AZ Alkmaar vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both AZ Alkmaar and Almere City FC will score (BTTS).
Will AZ Alkmaar vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and Almere City FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AZ Alkmaar and Almere City FC in?
AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. Almere City FC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from AZ Alkmaar's attack rating (1.22) and Almere City FC's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 2.23 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Almere City FC's attack (0.73x) against AZ Alkmaar's defence (0.71x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 48/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
68%
1.46
21%
4.72
10%
9.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.23
AZ Alkmaar xG
Total xG
3.03
0.80
Almere City FC xG
1.46
68%
Home win
4.72
21%
Draw
9.68
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
11%
9.35
Win to Nil
31%
3.24
1%
90.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.8 | 8.6 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.6 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.0 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AZ Alkmaar vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are AZ Alkmaar and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.23 expected goals for AZ Alkmaar and 0.80 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for AZ Alkmaar vs Almere City FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
AZ Alkmaar's recent record stands at 29W 10D 9L from 48 games, a 2.02 PPG return, with D-L-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for AZ Alkmaar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Almere City FC, meanwhile, have gone 22W 12D 14L across 48 games — 1.62 PPG, with D-W-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.02 PPG for AZ Alkmaar against 1.62 for Almere City FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, AZ Alkmaar have managed 14W 6D 4L from 24 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Almere City FC's away record stands at 12W 6D 6L across 24 trips, a 1.75 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
AZ Alkmaar are averaging 2.06 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 1.35 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Defensively: AZ Alkmaar have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Almere City FC in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AZ Alkmaar
Blended
Almere City FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AZ Alkmaar and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
AZ Alkmaar have gone 29W 10D 9L in their last 48 games (2.02 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 22W 12D 14L in their last 48 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AZ Alkmaar at home or Almere City FC away?
AZ Alkmaar's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AZ Alkmaar at home: 2.00 PPG; Almere City FC away: 1.75 PPG.
Have AZ Alkmaar or Almere City FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
AZ Alkmaar have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Almere City FC in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AZ Alkmaar won 4-1 on 9 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AZ Alkmaar have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Almere City FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
AZ Alkmaar
2
Draws
0
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and Almere City FC?
From 4 meetings on record, AZ Alkmaar have won 2, Almere City FC have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AZ Alkmaar and Almere City FC last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2025, when AZ Alkmaar 1-1 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between AZ Alkmaar and Almere City FC?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AZ Alkmaar 62%, Almere City FC 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (AZ Alkmaar) and 38% (Almere City FC).
On the defensive side: AZ Alkmaar keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Almere City FC in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AZ Alkmaar home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AZ Alkmaar play Almere City FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of AZ Alkmaar's recent matches and 46% of Almere City FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AZ Alkmaar vs Almere City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of AZ Alkmaar's recent games and 38% of Almere City FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AZ Alkmaar and Almere City FC tend to score early?
AZ Alkmaar have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Almere City FC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AZ Alkmaar run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Almere City FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AZ Alkmaar beat Almere City FC 4-1 at AFAS Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AZ Alkmaar 2.23 xG and Almere City FC 0.80 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. AZ Alkmaar beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AZ Alkmaar attack 1.22 / defence 0.71 against Almere City FC attack 0.73 / defence 1.09, drawn from 48/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AZ Alkmaar 68% | Draw 21% | Almere City FC 10%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 68%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AZ Alkmaar 60%, Almere City FC 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Almere City FC's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AZ Alkmaar 2.02 PPG, Almere City FC 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AZ Alkmaar win broke the near-deadlock. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.29 average — above their attacking norm. Almere City FC (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.