Almere City FC 1-1 Fortuna Sittard – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Fortuna Sittard (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Almere City FC face Fortuna Sittard.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Fortuna Sittard make the trip to Yanmar Stadion to face Almere City FC in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 33. The match kicks off on Wednesday 14 May 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Almere City FC (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Almere City FC's home record at Yanmar Stadion: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Fortuna Sittard's overall Eredivisie record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Fortuna Sittard's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Fortuna Sittard are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Almere City FC 0W, Fortuna Sittard 2W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2024, ended 0–3 with Fortuna Sittard winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Almere City FC — key trading statistics (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Fortuna Sittard — key trading statistics (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almere City FC 44% versus Fortuna Sittard 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almere City FC 50% | Fortuna Sittard 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 1.07 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 0.627 / defence 1.251 | Fortuna Sittard attack 0.927 / defence 1.065. League average goals — home 1.603 / away 1.342. Almere City FC's attack strength of 0.627 is below the league average — the 1.07 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 66 Almere City FC games / 66 Fortuna Sittard games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 25% | Draw 28% | Fortuna Sittard 47%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 4.00 | Draw 3.57 | Fortuna Sittard 2.13. Fortuna Sittard hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fortuna Sittard as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fortuna Sittard if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Almere City FC 50% | Fortuna Sittard 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs Fortuna Sittard | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 14 May 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 25% | Draw 28% | Fortuna Sittard 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Almere City FC 1.07 / Fortuna Sittard 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 0.627 / def 1.251 | Fortuna Sittard attack 0.927 / def 1.065 | league avg home 1.603 / away 1.342 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Sittard (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Fortuna Sittard xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs Fortuna Sittard kick off?
Almere City FC vs Fortuna Sittard kicked off at 19:00 on Wednesday 14 May 2025 at Yanmar Stadion.
What was the final score in Almere City FC vs Fortuna Sittard?
Almere City FC 1 - 1 Fortuna Sittard.
Where is Almere City FC vs Fortuna Sittard being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs Fortuna Sittard part of?
Almere City FC vs Fortuna Sittard is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 25% chance of winning, Fortuna Sittard a 47% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Sittard the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Almere City FC and Fortuna Sittard will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs Fortuna Sittard have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Fortuna Sittard?
Record (3 meetings): Almere City FC 0W | Draws 1 | Fortuna Sittard 2W.
What form are Almere City FC and Fortuna Sittard in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Fortuna Sittard (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Almere City FC's attack rating (0.63) and Fortuna Sittard's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.07 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fortuna Sittard's attack (0.93x) against Almere City FC's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.56.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.7%), 1-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Sittard Win
25%
4.01
28%
3.60
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
2.63
1.56
Fortuna Sittard xG
4.01
25%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
21%
4.74
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
5%
19.02
16%
6.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 11.2 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.5 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and Fortuna Sittard expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.56 for Fortuna Sittard, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs Fortuna Sittard?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Almere City FC come into this having played 66 games, going 11W 21D 34L for 0.82 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, Fortuna Sittard sit at 1.17 PPG from 66 outings (20W 17D 29L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.82 PPG for Almere City FC against 1.17 for Fortuna Sittard. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Almere City FC's home form reads 5W 11D 17L across 33 games on their own ground, a 0.79 PPG return.
Away from home, Fortuna Sittard have taken 0.79 points per game from 33 outings (5W 11D 17L).
Attack vs Defence
Almere City FC are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Sittard are on 1.11 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Current Season
Fortuna Sittard
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and Fortuna Sittard in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 11W 21D 34L in their last 66 games (0.82 PPG), while Fortuna Sittard have gone 20W 17D 29L in their last 66 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or Fortuna Sittard away?
Almere City FC's home record (0.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 0.79 PPG; Fortuna Sittard away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fortuna Sittard won 3-0 on 16 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Almere City FC have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Fortuna Sittard — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Almere City FC
2
Draws
2
Fortuna Sittard
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Fortuna Sittard?
From 4 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 0, Fortuna Sittard have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and Fortuna Sittard last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2025, when Almere City FC 1-1 Fortuna Sittard.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and Fortuna Sittard?
Fortuna Sittard have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Fortuna Sittard are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 48%, Fortuna Sittard 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Almere City FC) and 54% (Fortuna Sittard).
On the defensive side: Almere City FC have failed to score in 39% of games; Fortuna Sittard in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / Fortuna Sittard away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play Fortuna Sittard?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Almere City FC's recent matches and 46% of Fortuna Sittard's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Almere City FC vs Fortuna Sittard usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Almere City FC's recent games and 54% of Fortuna Sittard's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Almere City FC and Fortuna Sittard tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Fortuna Sittard in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Almere City FC and Fortuna Sittard share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almere City FC and Fortuna Sittard finished level at 1-1 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 33, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 1.07 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.56 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 0.63 / defence 1.25 against Fortuna Sittard attack 0.93 / defence 1.06, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 25% | Draw 28% | Fortuna Sittard 47%, with Fortuna Sittard to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 50%, Fortuna Sittard 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almere City FC's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Almere City FC 0.82 PPG, Fortuna Sittard 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Almere City FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.