Almere City FC 3-1 FC Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Almere City FC at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Almere City FC vs FC Eindhoven fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Relegation Round as Almere City FC welcome FC Eindhoven to Yanmar Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 26 May 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Almere City FC have gone 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Almere City FC have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Almere City FC's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Yanmar Stadion this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Yanmar Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
FC Eindhoven — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FC Eindhoven have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Eindhoven's form when playing away from home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Almere City FC) versus 1.70 (FC Eindhoven). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Almere City FC, 2 for FC Eindhoven and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 May 2023, ended 0–1 with FC Eindhoven winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Almere City FC trading profile (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
FC Eindhoven trading profile (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almere City FC 56% versus FC Eindhoven 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almere City FC 67% | FC Eindhoven 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 1.65 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.683 / away 1.290. Data: 0 Almere City FC games / 0 FC Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 45% | Draw 28% | FC Eindhoven 28%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | FC Eindhoven 3.57. Almere City FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.65 / 1.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Almere City FC are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Almere City FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates are neutral: Almere City FC 20% | FC Eindhoven 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs FC Eindhoven | Competition: Eredivisie, Relegation Round | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 26 May 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 45% | Draw 28% | FC Eindhoven 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Almere City FC 1.65 / FC Eindhoven 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.683 / away 1.290 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.26
FC Eindhoven xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs FC Eindhoven kick off?
Almere City FC vs FC Eindhoven kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 26 May 2023 at Yanmar Stadion.
What was the final score in Almere City FC vs FC Eindhoven?
Almere City FC 3 - 1 FC Eindhoven.
Where is Almere City FC vs FC Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs FC Eindhoven part of?
Almere City FC vs FC Eindhoven is a Relegation Round fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs FC Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 45% chance of winning, FC Eindhoven a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs FC Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Almere City FC and FC Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs FC Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and FC Eindhoven?
Record (5 meetings): Almere City FC 2W | Draws 1 | FC Eindhoven 2W.
What form are Almere City FC and FC Eindhoven in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. FC Eindhoven (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Almere City FC's attack at 0.85x the league average against FC Eindhoven's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.65 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Eindhoven's attack versus Almere City FC's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
45%
2.24
28%
3.59
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
2.91
1.26
FC Eindhoven xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
19%
5.18
Win to Nil
13%
7.92
5%
18.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.3 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs FC Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and FC Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.26 for FC Eindhoven, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs FC Eindhoven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Almere City FC's recent record stands at 11W 8D 20L from 39 games, a 1.05 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Almere City FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Eindhoven, meanwhile, have gone 21W 8D 10L across 39 games — 1.82 PPG, with D-W-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC Eindhoven by 0.77 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Almere City FC heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Almere City FC have managed 5W 4D 10L from 19 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Eindhoven's away record stands at 8W 5D 6L across 19 trips, a 1.53 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Almere City FC are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; FC Eindhoven are on 1.79 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Early Season
FC Eindhoven
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and FC Eindhoven in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 11W 8D 20L in their last 39 games (1.05 PPG), while FC Eindhoven have gone 21W 8D 10L in their last 39 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or FC Eindhoven away?
FC Eindhoven's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 1.00 PPG; FC Eindhoven away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Almere City FC or FC Eindhoven been keeping clean sheets recently?
Almere City FC have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, FC Eindhoven in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Sep 2025, when Almere City FC won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Almere City FC's record when hosting FC Eindhoven specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Almere City FC
1
Draws
3
FC Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and FC Eindhoven?
From 8 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 4, FC Eindhoven have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and FC Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when FC Eindhoven 3-2 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and FC Eindhoven?
Almere City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Almere City FC see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 42%, FC Eindhoven 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Almere City FC) and 47% (FC Eindhoven). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Almere City FC keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; FC Eindhoven in 32%; Almere City FC have failed to score in 32% of games; FC Eindhoven in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / FC Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play FC Eindhoven?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Almere City FC's recent matches and 47% of FC Eindhoven's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Almere City FC vs FC Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Almere City FC's matches and 47% of FC Eindhoven's.
Do Almere City FC and FC Eindhoven tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, FC Eindhoven in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Almere City FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over FC Eindhoven.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almere City FC beat FC Eindhoven 3-1 at Yanmar Stadion, Relegation Round, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 1.65 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.26 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Almere City FC beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against FC Eindhoven attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 45% | Draw 28% | FC Eindhoven 28%, with Almere City FC to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 67%, FC Eindhoven 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almere City FC's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.05. Form was overturned, with Almere City FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Almere City FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.