Willem II 2-1 Waalwijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Waalwijk at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Willem II vs Waalwijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Koning Willem II Stadion plays host to Willem II versus Waalwijk in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Sunday 8 February 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
Willem II's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Willem II's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Koning Willem II Stadion this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Waalwijk have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Waalwijk have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Willem II, 1.50 for Waalwijk — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Willem II have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Waalwijk in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Across 5 previous meetings, Willem II are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 1, with 0 draws in between.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.4 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2025, ended 3–2 with Willem II winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Willem II and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.4 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Willem II goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Waalwijk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Willem II 61% and Waalwijk 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 54% | Waalwijk 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.27 xG and Waalwijk 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 0.764 / defence 0.890 | Waalwijk attack 1.062 / defence 0.945. League average goals — home 1.763 / away 1.503. Willem II's attack strength of 0.764 is below the league average — the 1.27 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 24 Willem II games / 25 Waalwijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Willem II 32% | Draw 29% | Waalwijk 39%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 3.12 | Draw 3.45 | Waalwijk 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Waalwijk at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Waalwijk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Willem II 60% | Waalwijk 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Feb 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 32% | Draw 29% | Waalwijk 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG Willem II 1.27 / Waalwijk 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 0.764 / def 0.890 | Waalwijk attack 1.062 / def 0.945 | league avg home 1.763 / away 1.503 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Waalwijk xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Willem II vs Waalwijk kick off?
Willem II vs Waalwijk kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 8 February 2026 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs Waalwijk?
Willem II 2 - 1 Waalwijk.
Where is Willem II vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs Waalwijk part of?
Willem II vs Waalwijk is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 32% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 39% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Willem II and Waalwijk will score (BTTS).
Will Willem II vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Waalwijk?
Record (5 meetings): Willem II 4W | Draws 0 | Waalwijk 1W.
What form are Willem II and Waalwijk in?
Willem II (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Waalwijk (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Willem II's attack rating (0.76) and Waalwijk's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Waalwijk's attack (1.06x) against Willem II's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 24/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
32%
3.13
29%
3.42
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Willem II xG
Total xG
2.69
1.42
Waalwijk xG
3.13
32%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
24%
4.14
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
8%
12.94
11%
9.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 9.6 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.2 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.8 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Willem II and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Willem II and 1.42 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs Waalwijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Willem II's recent record stands at 16W 13D 30L from 59 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Waalwijk, meanwhile, have gone 16W 14D 29L across 59 games — 1.05 PPG, with W-D-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.03 PPG for Willem II against 1.05 for Waalwijk. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Willem II have managed 8W 6D 15L from 29 games — 1.03 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Waalwijk's away record stands at 6W 7D 16L across 29 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Willem II are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.46 scored and 1.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Willem II have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Waalwijk in 64%.
Last 59 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Blended
Waalwijk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Willem II and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 16W 13D 30L in their last 59 games (1.03 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 16W 14D 29L in their last 59 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or Waalwijk away?
Willem II's home record (1.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 1.03 PPG; Waalwijk away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Willem II won 3-0 on 15 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Willem II have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Waalwijk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Willem II
1
Draws
1
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Waalwijk?
From 8 meetings on record, Willem II have won 6, Waalwijk have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and Waalwijk last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Willem II 1-1 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and Waalwijk?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 62% for Willem II, 69% for Waalwijk — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 55% for Willem II and 66% for Waalwijk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Waalwijk in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Willem II play Waalwijk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Willem II's games and 69% of Waalwijk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Willem II vs Waalwijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Willem II's matches and 66% of Waalwijk's.
Do Willem II and Waalwijk tend to score early?
Willem II have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Waalwijk in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Willem II defy the odds to beat Waalwijk 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Willem II beat Waalwijk 2-1 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.27 xG and Waalwijk 1.42 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.76 / defence 0.89 against Waalwijk attack 1.06 / defence 0.94, drawn from 24/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 32% | Draw 29% | Waalwijk 39%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Willem II win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 54%, Waalwijk 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Waalwijk's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Willem II 1.03 PPG, Waalwijk 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Willem II win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.