Willem II 4-0 FC OSS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Willem II at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Willem II vs FC OSS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Willem II and FC OSS meet at Koning Willem II Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 34. This fixture gets under way on Friday 21 April 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Willem II's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Koning Willem II Stadion, Willem II have gone 7W 0D 3L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC OSS (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L D L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, FC OSS have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Willem II's 2.30 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of FC OSS's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Willem II 1W, FC OSS 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2022, ended 3–1 with Willem II winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Willem II goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
FC OSS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Willem II 53% versus FC OSS 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 56% | FC OSS 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 2.01 xG and FC OSS 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 0.978 / defence 0.854 | FC OSS attack 0.847 / defence 1.132. League average goals — home 1.815 / away 1.356. Data: 32 Willem II games / 71 FC OSS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Willem II 61% | Draw 21% | FC OSS 18%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 1.64 | Draw 4.76 | FC OSS 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Willem II (61%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Willem II as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Willem II 60% | FC OSS 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 21 Apr 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 61% | Draw 21% | FC OSS 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 54% | xG Willem II 2.01 / FC OSS 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 0.978 / def 0.854 | FC OSS attack 0.847 / def 1.132 | league avg home 1.815 / away 1.356 • Poisson stance: Willem II (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
0.98
FC OSS xG
54%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Willem II vs FC OSS kick off?
Willem II vs FC OSS kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 21 April 2023 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs FC OSS?
Willem II 4 - 0 FC OSS.
Where is Willem II vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs FC OSS part of?
Willem II vs FC OSS is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 61% chance of winning, FC OSS a 18% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Willem II and FC OSS will score (BTTS).
Will Willem II vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and FC OSS?
Record (1 meetings): Willem II 1W | Draws 0 | FC OSS 0W.
What form are Willem II and FC OSS in?
Willem II (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. FC OSS (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Willem II's attack at 0.98x the league average against FC OSS's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 2.01 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC OSS's attack (0.85x) against Willem II's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 32/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
61%
1.63
21%
4.76
18%
5.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Willem II xG
Total xG
2.99
0.98
FC OSS xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.76
21%
Draw
5.64
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
13%
7.46
Win to Nil
23%
4.35
2%
42.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 10.0 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Willem II and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Willem II and 0.98 for FC OSS, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs FC OSS?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Willem II's recent record stands at 25W 14D 27L from 66 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-W in the last five.
FC OSS, meanwhile, have gone 17W 13D 36L across 66 games — 0.97 PPG, with L-L-D-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Willem II against 0.97 for FC OSS. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Willem II have managed 17W 5D 10L from 32 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC OSS's away record stands at 8W 5D 19L across 32 trips, a 0.91 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Willem II come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Willem II are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 1.26 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC OSS in 62%.
Last 66 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Current Season
FC OSS
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Willem II and FC OSS in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 25W 14D 27L in their last 66 games (1.35 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 17W 13D 36L in their last 66 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or FC OSS away?
Willem II's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 1.75 PPG; FC OSS away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Willem II won 0-5 on 12 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Willem II have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against FC OSS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Willem II
1
Draws
0
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and FC OSS?
From 6 meetings on record, Willem II have won 5, FC OSS have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and FC OSS last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when FC OSS 1-3 Willem II.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and FC OSS?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Willem II 50%, FC OSS 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Willem II) and 66% (FC OSS). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 16% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Willem II keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; FC OSS in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Willem II play FC OSS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Willem II's recent matches and 59% of FC OSS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Willem II vs FC OSS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Willem II's matches and 66% of FC OSS's.
Do Willem II and FC OSS tend to score early?
Willem II have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, FC OSS in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Willem II run riot with a 4-0 hammering of FC OSS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Willem II beat FC OSS 4-0 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 34, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 2.01 xG and FC OSS 0.98 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Willem II beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC OSS landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.98 / defence 0.85 against FC OSS attack 0.85 / defence 1.13, drawn from 32/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 61% | Draw 21% | FC OSS 18%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 56%, FC OSS 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
FC OSS's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Willem II 1.35 PPG, FC OSS 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Willem II win broke the near-deadlock. Willem II (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. FC OSS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.