Willem II 1-0 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Willem II at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Willem II vs Dordrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Willem II and Dordrecht meet at Koning Willem II Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Friday 10 February 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Willem II's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Willem II at Koning Willem II Stadion this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Willem II are significantly better at Koning Willem II Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Dordrecht have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dordrecht away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Willem II have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Dordrecht in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Willem II lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 20 Nov 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Willem II — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Dordrecht — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Willem II 51% versus Dordrecht 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 56% | Dordrecht 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.96 xG and Dordrecht 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 1.096 / defence 0.929 | Dordrecht attack 0.814 / defence 1.069. League average goals — home 1.675 / away 1.265. Data: 23 Willem II games / 61 Dordrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Willem II 61% | Draw 21% | Dordrecht 18%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 1.64 | Draw 4.76 | Dordrecht 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Willem II (61%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Willem II are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Willem II 60% | Dordrecht 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 10 Feb 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 61% | Draw 21% | Dordrecht 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 53% | xG Willem II 1.96 / Dordrecht 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 1.096 / def 0.929 | Dordrecht attack 0.814 / def 1.069 | league avg home 1.675 / away 1.265 • Poisson stance: Willem II (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Dordrecht xG
53%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Willem II vs Dordrecht kick off?
Willem II vs Dordrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 10 February 2023 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs Dordrecht?
Willem II 1 - 0 Dordrecht.
Where is Willem II vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs Dordrecht part of?
Willem II vs Dordrecht is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 61% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 18% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Willem II and Dordrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Willem II vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Dordrecht?
Record (1 meetings): Willem II 0W | Draws 1 | Dordrecht 0W.
What form are Willem II and Dordrecht in?
Willem II (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Dordrecht (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Willem II's attack rating (1.10) and Dordrecht's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.96 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dordrecht's attack (0.81x) against Willem II's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 23/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
61%
1.65
21%
4.67
18%
5.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Willem II xG
Total xG
2.92
0.96
Dordrecht xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.67
21%
Draw
5.61
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
14%
7.11
Win to Nil
23%
4.28
3%
39.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.6 | 10.1 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Willem II and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Willem II and 0.96 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs Dordrecht?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 57 outings, Willem II have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 19W 12D 26L record — W-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dordrecht's form line: 16W 12D 29L from 57 games, 1.05 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-W. The sample for Dordrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Willem II against 1.05 for Dordrecht. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Willem II have posted 1.57 PPG from 28 outings (13W 5D 10L).
On the road, Dordrecht have gone 6W 6D 16L from 28 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Willem II come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Willem II are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.33 scored and 1.88 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Blended
Dordrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Willem II and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 19W 12D 26L in their last 57 games (1.21 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 16W 12D 29L in their last 57 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or Dordrecht away?
Willem II's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 1.57 PPG; Dordrecht away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Willem II have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Willem II have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Dordrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Willem II
2
Draws
1
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Dordrecht?
From 8 meetings on record, Willem II have won 5, Dordrecht have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and Dordrecht last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Dordrecht 1-2 Willem II.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and Dordrecht?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Willem II 46%, Dordrecht 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Willem II) and 68% (Dordrecht). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Willem II keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Willem II play Dordrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Willem II's games and 68% of Dordrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Willem II vs Dordrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Willem II's matches and 68% of Dordrecht's.
Do Willem II and Dordrecht tend to score early?
Willem II have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Dordrecht in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Willem II edge out Dordrecht 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Willem II beat Dordrecht 1-0 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.96 xG and Dordrecht 0.96 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Willem II fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Dordrecht landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 1.10 / defence 0.93 against Dordrecht attack 0.81 / defence 1.07, drawn from 23/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 61% | Draw 21% | Dordrecht 18%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 56%, Dordrecht 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Dordrecht's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Willem II 1.21 PPG, Dordrecht 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Willem II win broke the near-deadlock. Willem II (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Dordrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.