Willem II 0-1 ADO Den Haag – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates ADO Den Haag at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Willem II vs ADO Den Haag fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 22 as Willem II welcome ADO Den Haag to Koning Willem II Stadion. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 24 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Willem II have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Willem II at Koning Willem II Stadion this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
ADO Den Haag — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for ADO Den Haag, so this record blends games from this season and last.
ADO Den Haag away from home this season: 8W 0D 2L from 10 away games — 2.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.40 exceeds their overall 1.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Willem II) versus 1.60 (ADO Den Haag). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Willem II, 1 for ADO Den Haag and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Aug 2025, ended 1–5 with ADO Den Haag winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Willem II in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
ADO Den Haag in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Willem II 62% and ADO Den Haag 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 52% | ADO Den Haag 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.30 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 0.949 / defence 0.804 | ADO Den Haag attack 1.441 / defence 0.824. League average goals — home 1.670 / away 1.460. ADO Den Haag have an above-average attack strength of 1.441 — the away xG of 1.69 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 27 Willem II games / 65 ADO Den Haag games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Willem II 29% | Draw 26% | ADO Den Haag 46%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 3.45 | Draw 3.85 | ADO Den Haag 2.17. ADO Den Haag hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.30 / 1.69) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates ADO Den Haag as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on ADO Den Haag offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.00 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Willem II 60% | ADO Den Haag 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs ADO Den Haag | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Tuesday 24 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 29% | Draw 26% | ADO Den Haag 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Willem II 1.30 / ADO Den Haag 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 0.949 / def 0.804 | ADO Den Haag attack 1.441 / def 0.824 | league avg home 1.670 / away 1.460 • Poisson stance: ADO Den Haag (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
1.69
ADO Den Haag xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Willem II vs ADO Den Haag kick off?
Willem II vs ADO Den Haag kicked off at 19:00 on Tuesday 24 February 2026 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs ADO Den Haag?
Willem II 0 - 1 ADO Den Haag.
Where is Willem II vs ADO Den Haag being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs ADO Den Haag part of?
Willem II vs ADO Den Haag is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs ADO Den Haag?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 29% chance of winning, ADO Den Haag a 46% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making ADO Den Haag the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs ADO Den Haag?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Willem II and ADO Den Haag will score (BTTS).
Will Willem II vs ADO Den Haag have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and ADO Den Haag?
Record (5 meetings): Willem II 3W | Draws 1 | ADO Den Haag 1W.
What form are Willem II and ADO Den Haag in?
Willem II (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. ADO Den Haag (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Willem II's attack rating (0.95) and ADO Den Haag's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, ADO Den Haag's attack versus Willem II's defence, projects 1.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
ADO Den Haag Win
29%
3.50
26%
3.86
46%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Willem II xG
Total xG
3.00
1.69
ADO Den Haag xG
3.50
29%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.20
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
18%
5.44
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
5%
19.03
12%
8.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 8.4 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.0 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.2 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs ADO Den Haag?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Willem II and ADO Den Haag expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Willem II and 1.69 for ADO Den Haag, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs ADO Den Haag?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 65 outings, Willem II have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 19W 16D 30L record — W-L-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
ADO Den Haag's form line: 40W 10D 15L from 65 games, 2.00 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-W. The sample for ADO Den Haag is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, ADO Den Haag are the form team by 0.88 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Willem II.
Venue Form
On home soil, Willem II have posted 1.22 PPG from 32 outings (11W 6D 15L).
On the road, ADO Den Haag have gone 18W 7D 7L from 32 away games — 1.91 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ADO Den Haag come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Willem II are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; ADO Den Haag are on 2.08 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Willem II have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; ADO Den Haag in 60%.
Last 65 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Blended
ADO Den Haag
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Willem II and ADO Den Haag in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 19W 16D 30L in their last 65 games (1.12 PPG), while ADO Den Haag have gone 40W 10D 15L in their last 65 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or ADO Den Haag away?
ADO Den Haag's away record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 1.22 PPG; ADO Den Haag away: 1.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 24 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: ADO Den Haag have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Aug 2025, when ADO Den Haag won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Willem II's record when hosting ADO Den Haag specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Willem II
1
Draws
2
ADO Den Haag
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and ADO Den Haag?
From 6 meetings on record, Willem II have won 3, ADO Den Haag have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and ADO Den Haag last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2026, when Willem II 0-1 ADO Den Haag.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and ADO Den Haag?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Willem II 59%, ADO Den Haag 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Willem II and 66% for ADO Den Haag. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / ADO Den Haag away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Willem II play ADO Den Haag?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Willem II's games and 59% of ADO Den Haag's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Willem II vs ADO Den Haag usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Willem II's matches and 66% of ADO Den Haag's.
Do Willem II and ADO Den Haag tend to score early?
Willem II have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, ADO Den Haag in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as ADO Den Haag edge out Willem II 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ADO Den Haag beat Willem II 0-1 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.30 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.69 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Willem II fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.95 / defence 0.80 against ADO Den Haag attack 1.44 / defence 0.82, drawn from 27/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 29% | Draw 26% | ADO Den Haag 46%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 52%, ADO Den Haag 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.12. Form held, and they took the win. Willem II (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.